Coronavirus

[Anastasius]

What are the odds of the Proms being cancelled ? Rather high, I'd say.

[MrGongGong]

Self harm innit

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-vaccine-delays-brexit-ema-expensive

and this popped up (not that we didn't know it already)

https://www.classicfm.com/music-news/coronavirus-cancellations-impact-musicians/

[LHC]

Well if indeed the government are considering quarantining the over 70s it would be a direct consequence of their "herd immunity" policy.

As we know, at an infection rate of 2.5 people per one infected individual it would need circa 60% to contract and survive the disease for herd immunity to come into effect. This would be around 40 million people and with a death rate of 1% it would result in 400,000 deaths. This is, of course, a disastrous situation and a large proportion of those deaths would be over 70.

Not sure how BS/DC would implement such a policy though - perhaps round up the oldies and put us all in concentration camps with watch towers and armed guards.

The concept of herd immunity is that you protect the most vulnerable (ie those over 65 or 70) and allow the most resilient to catch the disease. This would result in a much lower death rate. For example, the current death rate for those under 50 appears to be around 0.2%, while for those over 70 it is around 8%. Keeping the infection rates for the over 70s down would not only greatly reduce the overall death rate, it would also ease the pressure on the NHS as younger people also tend to have much milder symptoms and won’t need intensive care in hospitals.

[MrGongGong]

One thing that is really noticable about this pandemic is that it has really spooked the powerful and rich

Unlike the way that that they are able to buy their way out of most of the difficult parts of life they are as much at risk as the rest of us, possibly more so as most folks on zero hours contracts don't tend to zip off to Italy for a bit of skyiing at half term.

It really messes with the need to have a scapegoat .... so we really are "all in this together" and unless those in power really DO support those who are often a couple of weeks away from destitution and work to keep the country going on low and insecure wages then we really are f*cked.

[LMcD]

I've recently started on my 4th quarter century. If somebody queries my presence on a bus, in a shop or the library or at an uncancelled social event, I shall tell them that I'm 28 but I worry a lot. I shall of course stay in and seek advice should I become unwell, but I'm not prepared to be treated like a leper simply because of my date of birth. As they used to say on 'Monty Python', this is all getting VERY silly. Yesterday some scientist said that, if we're not happy with the government's approach, we should make up our own minds - which is what I'm doing. I might have respect for a properly conceived, consistent and sensible approach by the authorities, but there clearly isn't one.

[Anastasius]

... For example, the current death rate for those under 50 appears to be around 0.2%, while for those over 70 it is around 8%. .....

But that is a generalisation. How many of that 8% had underlying health issues ? 100%. So how does imprisoning those of us who (a) don't have any underlying medical condition and (b) aren't on any medication whatsoever ?

[Anastasius]

I've recently started on my 4th quarter century. If somebody queries my presence on a bus, in a shop or the library or at an uncancelled social event, I shall tell them that I'm 28 but I worry a lot. I shall of course stay in and seek advice should I become unwell, but I'm not prepared to be treated like a leper simply because of my date of birth. As they used to say on 'Monty Python', this is all getting VERY silly. Yesterday some scientist said that, if we're not happy with the government's approach, we should make up our own minds - which is what I'm doing. I might have respect for a properly conceived, consistent and sensible approach by the authorities, but there clearly isn't one.

A like-minded soul, at last.

Trouble is that I have my own domestic Stasi aka SWMBO to contend with. I can see her confiscating my clothes. Not that that would stop me going out.

[LMcD]

The concept of herd immunity is that you protect the most vulnerable (ie those over 65 or 70) and allow the most resilient to catch the disease. This would result in a much lower death rate. For example, the current death rate for those under 50 appears to be around 0.2%, while for those over 70 it is around 8%. Keeping the infection rates for the over 70s down would not only greatly reduce the overall death rate, it would also ease the pressure on the NHS as younger people also tend to have much milder symptoms and won’t need intensive care in hospitals.

Surely the death rate for those under 70 is always likely to be greater than that for those under 50, whatever the circumstances?

[BBMmk2]

Surely the death rate for those under 70 is always likely to be greater than that for those under 50, whatever the circumstances?

I’ll probably be one of them. If a person doesn’t have any other underlying health problems, then their situation would be much better than those who are not so lucky.

[Pulcinella]

I’ll probably be one of them. If a person doesn’t have any other underlying health problems, then their situation would be much better than those who are not so lucky.

Stay safe, Bbm.
We have friends in northern Italy, just 15 km away from one of the first lockdown areas.
The local hospital has been 'zoned' so regular treatments can go ahead with minimal risk to all concerned.
Paolo (the husband) has been a volunteer driver (not sure if in his own car or an ambulance) with permission to take people to the hospital for such things as dialysis.
He and his wife have not seen their grandchildren (in the flesh) for a while, as they live in a different commune and there are travel restrictions.
Thankfully, there are things such as Skype and FaceTime.
My partner is setting up a Skype Quaker 'meeting' this morning with elderly Friends who have sensibly decided not to travel to the Meeting House.

[burning dog]

I’ll probably be one of them. If a person doesn’t have any other underlying health problems, then their situation would be much better than those who are not so lucky.

This needs to be explained to the public in much greater detail. Many many people in their sixties have slightly high Blood Pressure or Pre-diabetes, diagnosed or undiagnosed, technically "underlying health problems" Does that qualify them for 3 months lockdown?

[DracoM]

Good question and IIRC, not a single bit of news on broadcast media or in press has tried to define 'underlying'.
Once again, the 'elderly' are in effect being blamed for being........ erm......'elderly'. And / or panicked into dying soon to save everyone from an economic disaster.

[Anastasius]

This needs to be explained to the public in much greater detail. Many many people in their sixties have slightly high Blood Pressure or Pre-diabetes, diagnosed or undiagnosed, technically "underlying health problems" Does that qualify them for 3 months lockdown?

That will all become academic in a few weeks time when the imprisonment diktat applies to anyone over 60.

[LMcD]

This needs to be explained to the public in much greater detail. Many many people in their sixties have slightly high Blood Pressure or Pre-diabetes, diagnosed or undiagnosed, technically "underlying health problems" Does that qualify them for 3 months lockdown?

I'm 76 and have type 2 diabetes, which means that I'm obviously a serious threat to society. Fortunately, it also means that I know PRECISELY how much trust to place in 'the authorities'

I suspect the government has a different, 5-phase solution to the coronavirus isuue:

(1) Blame the Chinese
(2) Blame all other foreigners
(3) Blame the over-70s who show symptoms
(4) Blame the over-70s who don't show symptoms

If (1) to (4) don't work:

(5) Repeat (3) and (4), reducing the age limit 10 years at a time, until only babies in the womb escape blame.

Does anybody know whether I will be allowed to work in my front garden, parts of which are less than 2 metres from the pavement outside our house?

[teamsaint]

Good question and IIRC, not a single bit of news on broadcast media or in press has tried to define 'underlying'.
Once again, the 'elderly' are in effect being blamed for being........ erm......'elderly'. And / or panicked into dying soon to save everyone from an economic disaster.

Lock the whole country down, and vast numbers of the over 70s will be effectively isolated anyway.
The single biggest risk right now , for all of us, is the NHS being overwhelmed by demand. I would have thought that minimising the risk of infection to precisely those people most likely to require the greatest medical intervention is a pretty sensible step,if not a very nice one to have to take.
Younger people are being asked , effectively, to go through the disease and keep everything running.

( Have elderly mother with underlying health conditions, who lives 30 miles away, and it’ll be down to me to deal with stuff, incidentally).