Coronavirus

[Dave2002]

I haven’t read all of this thread, apologies for duplication. Apart from a basic personal form of sympathy for BJ, I struggle to empathise to be honest. He had reckless contact with infected people, he’s not very healthy himself. He and his administration failed to adopt appropriate precautions soon enough. Added to which his government has completely failed to have any sort of informed and or consistent approach to the crisis, even given the 2 months head start we had after seeing what was happening in China. This whole farrago has been the worst failure of governance in this country of my lifetime. And it’s barely started.

I am tempted to agree with you, but I do have sympathy for BJ.

However, I am alarmed at journalists and reporters, many working for organisations such as the BBC, who use words like transparency, and leadership when referring to the current situation. I think leadership has been almost completely absent, and transparency - from people who in earlier times were happy to have slogans about £360 million pounds for the NHS plastered on the side of buses - have the reporters and journalists forgotten all this? Leadership from someone who disappeared into a fridge?

Yes, the electorate and viewers are assumed to have short memories. Some of them do.

The reason that things are not as bad (though pretty bad) as they might have been is because there are still experts who have some idea of what they are doing, and there many people working very hard to overcome the problems.

Yes, I do sincerely hope that BJ does well and recovers, but the words which some reporters and broadcasters have been using recently don't ring true to me.

[Bryn]

This is truly scary, and all too well argued:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

[Serial_Apologist]

This is truly scary, and all too well argued:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts

Very worrying, I agree. One does ones best to follow all the avoiding measures, yet misdtakes can't always be helped: the other day I suddenly realised I had forgotten to do the hand washing regime after returning from the shops, before my afternoon cuppa, and found myself rushing to the bathroom in a panic.

[Bryn]

Very worrying, I agree. One does ones best to follow all the avoiding measures, yet misdtakes can't always be helped: the other day I suddenly realised I had forgotten to do the hand washing regime after returning from the shops, before my afternoon cuppa, and found myself rushing to the bathroom in a panic.

A London bus-driver friend phoned me this afternoon (hands-free as she drove home from work ) to tell me the number of deaths among London bus operation staff was now 15, not the much lower figure touted for bus drivers only. Controllers and allocation staff have also been victims, including two direct colleagues of hers. She also advised that passenger numbers were rising again and that protection provided for drivers was totally inadequate. One pair of disposable gloves and a tiny bottle of hand sanitizer a day. Also, bus cleaning was wholely inadequate. She had no thermometer to check her temperature, the one she bought via Amazon being non-functional. I told her I had a spare, so she should divert via my place on her way home and I would bring it to her car window (having wiped it with both soapy water and alcohol) while wearing sterile marigold gloves. How is Unite the Union letting her employers, Metroline, get away with exposing its staff to such danger?

[LHC]

This is truly scary, and all too well argued:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts

The figures in the IHME report look very odd, and not just for the UK. France already have over 10,000 deaths, but the IHME are predicting a total of 15,000 for them by the end of August. At current rates, France could pass that next week. Similarly they are predicting just 3,000 more deaths in Italy between now and August. It would be wonderful if that was true, but at the moment it’s just not credible. They also appear to be grossly underestimating ICU capacity in the UK.

The IHME report claims the UK only has 800 ICU beds, which I think was an underestimate when the crisis started, and is clearly not true now; the new Nightingale hospital at the Excel centre has 4,000 ICU capacity alone, and there are further ICU beds being provided at the other new field hospitals.

There is also considerable uncertainty in the figures they do provide. They predict the peak for the UK will be 17 April, but their estimate of daily deaths at that point is anything between 800 and 8,000.

I’m not sure I’d have much confidence in a report with such inaccurate base data.

[seabright]

This is truly scary, and all too well argued:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts

We keep being told that the government is taking its advice from so-called "health experts" but how can we be certain that they know what they're doing, especially if other countries with their own experts are pulling out of this crisis much speedier than we are?

[LMcD]

The figures in the IHME report look very odd, and not just for the UK. France already have over 10,000 deaths, but the IHME are predicting a total of 15,000 for them by the end of August. At current rates, France could pass that next week. Similarly they are predicting just 3,000 more deaths in Italy between now and August. It would be wonderful if that was true, but at the moment it’s just not credible. They also appear to be grossly underestimating ICU capacity in the UK.

The IHME report claims the UK only has 800 ICU beds, which I think was an underestimate when the crisis started, and is clearly not true now; the new Nightingale hospital at the Excel centre has 4,000 ICU capacity alone, and there are further ICU beds being provided at the other new field hospitals.

There is also considerable uncertainty in the figures they do provide. They predict the peak for the UK will be 17 April, but their estimate of daily deaths at that point is anything between 800 and 8,000.

I’m not sure I’d have much confidence in a report with such inaccurate base data.

cf. #1393

[ardcarp]

There was some useful reflection from scientists on R4's More or Less this morning. One said that the data on the day-to-day number of hospital Covid deaths was inaccurate because of delays in reporting. This shouldn't make any difference in the long run, I suppose. But data confirming the 'levelling off' might come a bit later than it actually happens.

[DracoM]

Agreed: a VG series by Adam Rutherford always listening to, but especially when the media are so keen to inflate, shout, scream and 'ramp up' the hysterics in every story they can.

[LHC]

A London bus-driver friend phoned me this afternoon (hands-free as she drove home from work ) to tell me the number of deaths among London bus operation staff was now 15, not the much lower figure touted for bus drivers only. Controllers and allocation staff have also been victims, including two direct colleagues of hers. She also advised that passenger numbers were rising again and that protection provided for drivers was totally inadequate. One pair of disposable gloves and a tiny bottle of hand sanitizer a day. Also, bus cleaning was wholely inadequate. She had no thermometer to check her temperature, the one she bought via Amazon being non-functional. I told her I had a spare, so she should divert via my place on her way home and I would bring it to her car window (having wiped it with both soapy water and alcohol) while wearing sterile marigold gloves. How is Unite the Union letting her employers, Metroline, get away with exposing its staff to such danger?

it seems they are doing something now, but it is not clear if this will be adequate to protect drivers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52212143

[Jazzrook]

John Pilger on coronavirus:

https://www.rt.com/shows/going-underground/485225-john-pilger-coronavirus-pandemic/

JR

[Serial_Apologist]

it seems they are doing something now, but it is not clear if this will be adequate to protect drivers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52212143

I would have thought it possible to shield drivers from direct exhalations from passengers. Even the two pharmacies closest to where I live are still taking cash, which has to be passed through a smallish aperture in a transparent temporary screen between client and counter staff, who are all masked and wearing blue gloves. But asking passengers to sit further down the bus from the driver would seem reasonable in the circumstances, given that few buses are anything like full. Incidentally, part of this morning's discussion on Jeremy Vine on CH4, to which a doctor apparently with connections to the DOH, Sarah Jarvis, attends each morning, took up the matter of joggers either not making way for pedestrians on narrow pavements, or being forced into the path of traffic. From what I understood, the likelihood of transferring Corvid19 between joggers and pedestrians in close proximity is considered very low, given the split second character of such encounters, though this would increase in the case of groupings of joggers. On being questioned, Dr Jarvis was of the view that any close contact with another within the 2 metre gap requirement, if unavoidable, should be restricted to 15 seconds at the very most.

[Dave2002]

Pets and animals are unlikely to pass CV-19 to you. Little is known, but it seems very low probability.

Unless, of course, you keep tigers as pets, when you might have a greater risk of being eaten.

https://time.com/5816383/pets-coronavirus/

[burning dog]

John Pilger on coronavirus:

https://www.rt.com/shows/going-underground/485225-john-pilger-coronavirus-pandemic/

JR

The Daily Mirror 29th March

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-uk-warned-3-years-21773821

[LHC]

The Daily Mirror 29th March

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...years-21773821

I hope no one has told Pilger that his story was originally published by the Telegraph two weeks ago