Coronavirus

[LeMartinPecheur]

I hope this is a cheerful, statistically significant stat

As noted way above, I've been monitoring the new case figures for a dozen southern local authority areas from Kent across to Cornwall for the last couple of weeks. Today is the first day they've all been below a 20% increase on previous day. I don't think this can just be because Sunday is a slack day for statistics and statisticians: last Sunday 6 out of 12 were above this figure, with two above 30%.

I'll be watching of course for any 'compensatory' jumps tomorrow.

Very modified rapture today, I'm afraid!

Today's figures show 7 LA's above 20% for day-on-day increase in cases, with 3 of these above 30%. All of the latter are down here in the SW with Dorset highest at +50% followed by Dorset (+41%) and my own base Cornwall (+33%). Now this might be because first cases came later down here (probable but I've not checked this), but I'd guess that the recent rush to second homes is a significant factor

[Count Boso]

Very modified rapture today, I'm afraid!

But another warning this morning that day-to-day stats may be misleading, with spikes caused by delays in reporting from some areas, especially after weekends..

[LMcD]

But another warning this morning that day-to-day stats may be misleading, with spikes caused by delays in reporting from some areas, especially after weekends..

'Lies, damned lies and statistics'

[Dave2002]

Is it possible to simulate the effect of any specific virus on a collection of cells representative of a human or animal population? This might be too futuristic. I don’t mean broad brush simulations, but simulations good enough to model damage to the cells, and also changes to the viruses themselves.

[Constantbee]

Is it possible to simulate the effect of any specific virus on a collection of cells representative of a human or animal population? This might be too futuristic. I don’t mean broad brush simulations, but simulations good enough to model damage to the cells, and also changes to the viruses themselves.

Yes. Mathematical modelling is a growing area in cell biology. Don't try this at home, though

[ardcarp]

Trump's help for Boris:

‘He’s been a really good friend…we have made tremendous progress on theraputics…and I’ve asked two of the leading companies, these are brilliant companies – ebola, AIDS, others – the’ve come with the solutions and just have done incredible jobs.’ ‘And I’ve asked them to contact London immediately, they have offices in London, these are major companies, but more than major, more than size, they’re genius,’ . ‘We’ve contacted all of Boris’s doctors and we’ll see what is going to take place…but when you get brought into Intensive care that gets very serious.’

Watch out, St Thomas's.

[MrGongGong]

Things not looking too good for Johnson. I reject most of what he stands for but he is a fellow human being and I would not wish his current ill health on him.

Let's hope that he learns something from the experience.
It's never too late

[Dave2002]

Yes. Mathematical modelling is a growing area in cell biology. Don't try this at home, though

I was perhaps thinking too far ahead - something which is probably not possible now, and may never be. Essentially if one could let a model virus (computer version) loose on a model population (again - a computer model), see how it grows etc. Then try variants of the model virus, and possibly disruptive agents. Some might have the effect of either "killing" the original virus, or at least reducing its effect. Brute force techniques such as Random optimisation, Genetic programming etc. could then be done to try to find "things" (perhaps other viruses ...??) which could then be made synthetically to attack the original virus once the blueprints for those were known. Then I guess there'd still have to be animal and human trials, and maybe it's too complicated a method to actually adopt. I'm assuming that nowadays it is possible to reverse the analysis process for viruses, and produce real new and complex molecules, once the structure has been worked out in a computer. I think that this is at least partly possible now.

The idea of competitive modelling has been around in the computer world for some time - for example the "virus wars" (not real viruses - but computer ones) to find out which ones win, which ones lose out.

[Count Boso]

'Lies, damned lies and statistics'

And sometimes taken to mean that statistics cannot be trusted! They can be misused, they can be misunderstood, but only fabricated statistics can be called 'lies'.

[richardfinegold]

Trump's help for Boris:

‘He’s been a really good friend…we have made tremendous progress on theraputics…and I’ve asked two of the leading companies, these are brilliant companies – ebola, AIDS, others – the’ve come with the solutions and just have done incredible jobs.’ ‘And I’ve asked them to contact London immediately, they have offices in London, these are major companies, but more than major, more than size, they’re genius,’ . ‘We’ve contacted all of Boris’s doctors and we’ll see what is going to take place…but when you get brought into Intensive care that gets very serious.’

Watch out, St Thomas's.

I’ve read that Boris was shaking hands with infected patients in March in front of news cameras.
Trump gives a conference urging people to wear masks and then immediately declares that he won’t do so.
The Italian Governor of Lombardy posts a picture of himself drinking wine in a restaurant before he becomes infected.

The common theme is the Narcissism of the Elites. The virus wouldn’t dare strike them because they are so special, so powerful, so rich, so famous and important.

[MrGongGong]

I’ve read that Boris was shaking hands with infected patients in March in front of news cameras.
Trump gives a conference urging people to wear masks and then immediately declares that he won’t do so.
The Italian Governor of Lombardy posts a picture of himself drinking wine in a restaurant before he becomes infected.

The common theme is the Narcissism of the Elites. The virus wouldn’t dare strike them because they are so special, so powerful, so rich, so famous and important.

Careful now ........

[LMcD]

I’ve read that Boris was shaking hands with infected patients in March in front of news cameras.
Trump gives a conference urging people to wear masks and then immediately declares that he won’t do so.
The Italian Governor of Lombardy posts a picture of himself drinking wine in a restaurant before he becomes infected.

The common theme is the Narcissism of the Elites. The virus wouldn’t dare strike them because they are so special, so powerful, so rich, so famous and important.

Not to mention certain high-profile people in Scotland and New Zealand, to whom the rules are presumably not meant to apply,

[johnb]

But another warning this morning that day-to-day stats may be misleading, with spikes caused by delays in reporting from some areas, especially after weekends..

Quite.

An extreme example was the previous Monday, 30/03/20, when the figures released that day indicated an increase of 180 in reported deaths for the UK as a whole.

These were deaths reported up to 5pm the previous day, 29/03/20.

The latest, retrospective, figure for the number of Covid-19 related deaths that actually occurred on 29/03/20 is 550 for England alone.

Not too much weight should be given to the individual daily figures for the deaths, it is the trend that is important.

[eighthobstruction]

I’ve read that Boris was shaking hands with infected patients in March in front of news cameras.
Trump gives a conference urging people to wear masks and then immediately declares that he won’t do so.
The Italian Governor of Lombardy posts a picture of himself drinking wine in a restaurant before he becomes infected.

The common theme is the Narcissism of the Elites. The virus wouldn’t dare strike them because they are so special, so powerful, so rich, so famous and important.

....you must now feel so safe and optimistic now that Jared Kushner is top of pile and in the chair....

[LHC]

I’ve read that Boris was shaking hands with infected patients in March in front of news cameras.
Trump gives a conference urging people to wear masks and then immediately declares that he won’t do so.
The Italian Governor of Lombardy posts a picture of himself drinking wine in a restaurant before he becomes infected.

The common theme is the Narcissism of the Elites. The virus wouldn’t dare strike them because they are so special, so powerful, so rich, so famous and important.

The photo of him shaking hands with nurses, and possibly patients, was taken on 4 March, before the social distancing guidelines came into force. As he was in a hospital at the time, he would have washed his hands afterwards. It wasn't the most sensible thing to do, but given the dates, his infection will have occurred some time after this. Its more likely he was infected in and around Westminster at the same time that Chris Whitty and Matt Hancock were infected.

His faux pas is nothing like as bad as the Scottish CMO or the NZ Minister for Health who have been caught wilfully disregarding their own instructions.