Coronavirus

[oddoneout]

I think there is a (deliberate ?) confusion about between what is/are

"guidance" and "rules"

I hear spokespeople using these interchangeably ....

Well there's been plenty of practice over the years; the difference between EU directives and regulations seemed to be selectively applied.

[oddoneout]

When he was asked about the 3.5 million antibody tests MH said he had ordered 17 million, not 3.5. (Pick a number, any number.) That's 17 million of tests which haven't yet been validated. Sounds good to me.

Tomorrow it will probably be 100 million antibody tests on order. (He likes that number.)

(Actually I suspect that there are provisional orders that have been placed - which will be only be confirmed if the tests prove to be accurate. Though MH seemed cagey when asked whether PHE had paid the manufactures any money.)

That's an improvement on outright lying - although that may come of course.

[LMcD]

I thought Hancock struggled - he seemed set on passing as many questions as possible to the other two speakers. You could argue that he was trying to be humble and practise delegation, but I suspect he didn't have credible answers to many of the questions. Refreshing, but also worrying, that the chap on his right, whom he repeatedly and annoyingly referred to by his initials, admitted that there's a great deal we still don't know and won't know for a while.

[cloughie]

Very much so. If too many flout the instructions, expect a harder lockdown around the corner. I was speaking with someone today who has good reason to know that preparations are in hand (passes etc) for that eventuality

The harder lockdown will be too late to prevent all those inconsiderate people who in their infinite ignorance think it is a good idea to come down to Cornwall to self-isolate. Stay home you selfish .....!

[ardcarp]

After the lock-downs are eased, probably because a vaccine will be on its way, what of society, business, personal finance then? I foresee trouble ahead, when the community spirit of most and the heroism of some will be trampled underfoot by an unseemly scrabble to get back on the ladder.

I'll put Hewitt's 48 on right now and try not to think about it.

[oddoneout]

Has anyone any thoughts/info about the effect or otherwise of changing seasons on the virus? I read in passing yesterday a comment from someone who I think was in a position to know, that this is not a seasonal virus - ie unlike flu it can't be expected to go away once winter passes. Early on in the proceedings I read that higher temperatures (although the figures quoted were somewhat higher than we would expect on a regular or sustained basis in this country) would reduce the virus activity, from which the assumption was made that the arrival of summer would improve matters.
I find this possibility worrying.

The PM's missive has not arrived this week, so one less irritation. On the downside that means it is presumably still hanging around to blight next week, unless it is another of the failed actions...

[Pulcinella]

Has anyone any thoughts/info about the effect or otherwise of changing seasons on the virus? I read in passing yesterday a comment from someone who I think was in a position to know, that this is not a seasonal virus - ie unlike flu it can't be expected to go away once winter passes. Early on in the proceedings I read that higher temperatures (although the figures quoted were somewhat higher than we would expect on a regular or sustained basis in this country) would reduce the virus activity, from which the assumption was made that the arrival of summer would improve matters.
I find this possibility worrying.

The PM's missive has not arrived this week, so one less irritation. On the downside that means it is presumably still hanging around to blight next week, unless it is another of the failed actions...

There's a letter in today's Times from the former head of the Pirbright Laboratory (can't provide the text or link; sorry) that suggests that any seasonal effect is more likely to be due to relative humidity than temperature.

[johnb]

There's a letter in today's Times from the former head of the Pirbright Laboratory (can't provide the text or link; sorry) that suggests that any seasonal effect is more likely to be due to relative humidity than temperature.

That's interesting. Is the former head of the Pirbright Laboratory talking about outdoor or outdoor humidity or both? I have some luthier made classical guitars (one with Brazilian Rosewood back and sides which is especially prone to splitting at low RH) so I take a keen interest in the relative humidity.

In the UK the winter RH is high outdoors but can be very low indoors due to our central heating. For example over the past few day the RH has been circa 25% in my living room but varying around 75% (+/-20%) outdoors.

In summer (when the central heating is switched off) the indoor and outdoor RH are similar but can still be around 75% (+/-20%).

(All the figures are very rough and the RH is likely to differ somewhat in other parts of the country.)

[Dave2002]

Food deliveries

Looks like food is OK to have delivered - at the moment - if you can get any!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/can-you-get-coronavirus-through-fresh-produce-or-food/ar-BB11jTdZ

[johnb]

There is a highly critical appraisal of the UK government's approach to coronavirus when compared to how Germany has handled the situation. It is definitely worth a read: https://www.ft.com/content/c4155982-...d-169db6fe4244

[Pulcinella]

That's interesting. Is the former head of the Pirbright Laboratory talking about outdoor or outdoor humidity or both? I have some luthier made classical guitars (one with Brazilian Rosewood back and sides which is especially prone to splitting at low RH) so I take a keen interest in the relative humidity.

In the UK the winter RH is high outdoors but can be very low indoors due to our central heating. For example over the past few day the RH has been circa 25% in my living room but varying around 75% (+/-20%) outdoors.

In summer (when the central heating is switched off) the indoor and outdoor RH are similar but can still be around 75% (+/-20%).

(All the figures are very rough and the RH is likely to differ somewhat in other parts of the country.)

John: See PM just sent (I don't want to risk breaking copyright by posting on the forum).
Btw: I think you mistakenly typed outdoor twice early on in your message.

Apparently, enveloped viruses (such as Covid-19) survive well in aerosols at low RH but poorly at high RH.
In winter, we tend to have lower humidity indoors.

[oddoneout]

There's a letter in today's Times from the former head of the Pirbright Laboratory (can't provide the text or link; sorry) that suggests that any seasonal effect is more likely to be due to relative humidity than temperature.

That would tally with what I've just been finding out about enveloped viruses of which this is one. This from Wiki, which also mentions something which might relate to other discussion about 'shedding'.

The cell from which the virus itself buds will often die or be weakened and shed more viral particles for an extended period. The lipid bilayer envelope of these viruses is relatively sensitive to desiccation, heat, and detergents, therefore these viruses are easier to sterilize than non-enveloped viruses, have limited survival outside host environments, and typically transfer directly from host to host. Enveloped viruses possess great adaptability and can change in a short time in order to evade the immune system. Enveloped viruses can cause persistent infections.

[Dave2002]

Apparently, enveloped viruses (such as Covid-19) survive well in aerosols at low RH but poorly at high RH.
In winter, we tend to have lower humidity indoors.

So best to spend time in the shower, then!

Re the FT - perhaps spending £1 for the 4 week thing isn't such a bad thing. Just remember to cancel in time.

[johnb]

Today's new figures have been released.

One encouraging thing is that the percentage increase in confirmed cases (9,406 tested) is 9.8%. This is the lowest daily percentage increase to date.

[DracoM]

Yes, but after so LITTLE testing, how useful are such ratios?