Coronavirus

[LeMartinPecheur]

I suspect things are going to be very slightly better than a few other countries, but not much.

Dave: for excellent graphics on how we are doing compared with other countries, try the Financial Times daily summary https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest NB most of the graphs are logarithmic on y-axis, which means that first impressions are apt to underestimate the seriousness of differences

Your suspicions are basically correct. We are (so far) doing a lot better than some countries, USA in particular, but far, far worse than quite a few others, Japan & S Korea especially. But we're broadly in line with most of our nearest European neighbours.

[johnb]

Watching today's press conference.

The slide showing the number of confirmed cases didn't seem to include the figures released today, even though the dates on the x axis implied that it did. For heaven's sake .....

[LMcD]

Watching today's press conference.

The slide showing the number of confirmed cases didn't seem to include the figures released today, even though the dates on the x axis implied that it did. For heaven's sake .....

Every press conference is less convincing than the previous one. I'm afraid I have no confidence in the figures or in those presenting them.

[johnb]

The slides, and datasets that support the slides, used in the press conferences are available online.

Looking at the slides/supporting data used in yesterday's press conference (31/03/20) it is apparent that they do not include the data released on the day of the press conference, i.e. the slides/datasets for the press conference held on 31/03/20 only include information up to 30/03/20.

Perhaps this is the standard routine. Pity this isn't made clear.

[Edit] I can confirm, from the online slides/datasets, that the slides used in today's press conference only included information up to 31/03.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-1-april-2020

[jayne lee wilson]

So sad and true, so almost-bleakly-funny.....

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2020/mar/31/steve-bell-on-michael-gove-and-the-goats-of-llandudno-cartoon

[Nick Armstrong]

Every press conference is less convincing than the previous one. I'm afraid I have no confidence in the figures or in those presenting them.

I was coming here to make the same or a very similar point, LMcD.

They now seem like party political broadcasts, in contrast to the urgent sincerity of the initial ones. I’m in danger of stopping paying attention to the repeated mantras, the lame clichés, even from the medical expert today....

[oddoneout]

I was coming here to make the same or a very similar point, LMcD.

They now seem like party political broadcasts, in contrast to the urgent sincerity of the initial ones. I’m in danger of stopping paying attention to the repeated mantras, the lame clichés, even from the medical expert today....

These strange outings do rather beg the question who they are trying to convince, themselves or the public. Or is it now an Tory Party audition process to find out who can be put on the list of safe bodies(ie won't say anything meaningful or intelligent/intelligible) to put up in front of the press.

[DracoM]

Anybody explain?

I live in rural NW. Tonight on BBC Look North, the assertion was made that eg Cumbria - outside its West Coast / Carlisle, a largely rural county - yet apparently has one of the highest rates of confirmed cases [FGS] outside LONDON.............I was stunned.
THEN
Why should this be the case?
1. Ave age of citizens a deal older than most other areas.
2. Cumbria had more cases earlier than many other places so will likely peak earlier, and thus begin to fall earlier. [Hmm.......]
3. The number of people who seemed to flock to the wonderful scenery etc over this last weekend staggered all of us - certainly where I live. e.g. great cavalcades of bikers etc

Does this begin to cover it?

[Bryn]

Anybody explain?

I live in rural NW. Tonight on BBC Look North, the assertion was made that eg Cumbria - outside its West Coast / Carlisle, a largely rural county - yet apparently has one of the highest rates of confirmed cases [FGS] outside LONDON.............I was stunned.

Why should this be the case?

The idiotic behaviour of some, heading for the region for an illusory escape from infection while carrying undiagnosed infection with them?

[DracoM]

10/10 I reckon!!

[MrGongGong]

Anybody explain?

I live in rural NW. Tonight on BBC Look North, the assertion was made that eg Cumbria - outside its West Coast / Carlisle, a largely rural county - yet apparently has one of the highest rates of confirmed cases [FGS] outside LONDON.............I was stunned.
THEN
Why should this be the case?
1. Ave age of citizens a deal older than most other areas.
2. Cumbria had more cases earlier than many other places so will likely peak earlier, and thus begin to fall earlier. [Hmm.......]
3. The number of people who seemed to flock to the wonderful scenery etc over this last weekend staggered all of us - certainly where I live. e.g. great cavalcades of bikers etc

Does this begin to cover it?

An Icelandic friend commented that the large number of cases in Iceland were party due to a small but wealthy population who were able to afford to travel in holidays.

The West Coast of Cumbria isn't very wealthy BUT many of the other parts are.... maybe statistics for how many folks travelled abroad in the half term ?

[DracoM]

Aha! Good thinking!

[Dave2002]

WIRED has one of the best articles so far on the mathematics relating to this pandemic.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

[kernelbogey]

Indeed, the '7-day- rule' is simply not enough. Shedding beyond 8 days from the abating of symptoms has been reported.

This article seems to suggest that shedding may be more widespread than has been assumed. I have long thought that coughs and sneezes alone cannot account for the wide and fast transmission. It seems that expelling of droplets of saliva during speech may contribute.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/all-uk-hospital-staff-and-patients-should-wear-masks-says-doctors-group

Could it be the case that normal outbreaths carry sufficient virus to be contagious?

[Jazzrook]

Some interesting statistics from an enlightening article by Private Eye's resident doctor, Phil Hammond(M.D.) in the current issue(3 Apr-23 April):

"So far this year, as the Eye went to press 159,987 people have died in the UK, 1228(and counting) with coronavirus, and 158,759 of things that don't make the news.
Assorted Imperial College professors predict that if we continue lockdown until June and turn the NHS into a Covid-19 service, deaths with coronavirus could be restricted to 5,700 - 20,000. Roughly out of every 10,000 people in the UK, 9996 - 9999 would not die with coronavirus."

JR