Coronavirus

[Flay]

[Dave2002]

Has anybody else put 'coronavirus' into an anagram solver, by the way?

To discover the name of a restaurant in Nairobi, I think. Actually not quite - but the people who go there are mostly this!

[Flay]

Thanks Flay. Can you say your part in this insight - was all that from NHS England? Perhaps you could indicate your area of expertise? I'm not being conentious, I'd just like to know - it all seems eminently authoritative and correct...

I'm an almost-retired GP, I just do a few locums now.

My post was taken from someone's notes taken at an infectious diseases conference in California held on 7th March, plus NHS advice.

By the way, as the advice is to catch a sneeze at the crook of the elbow if there is no other alternative, I wouldn't recommend the "elbow bump" as a method of greeting. I suggest bowing Japanese-style.

[richardfinegold]

Is it possible that a bacterial infection could arise from (piggy-back on) the complications of a severe viral infection? If so, would an antibiotic be appropriate?

Yes and No. only use an antibiotic if there is a very strong suspicion of a secondary bacterial infection

[richardfinegold]

In "normal" times would that still be the procedure, or would he just go home and probably carry on as usual, unless he felt very ill? I did some quick calculations based on estimates.

1. 50 states in the US - so Illinois cases to date x 50 = 550. Now multply by 6 as we're about 2.y/12 way through the year, to get 3300.That estimate is around 1/6 the number of influenza deaths - an estimate (yours - though there seems to be wide variation) for the total US deaths in one year.

Assumption made here - which is wrong - is that all states have proportionately the same number of people.

another way....

2. 12.5 million people roughly in Illinois. 329 miillion people approx in the US. 329/12.5 * number of Illinois cases * year fraction
gives which gives about 26* 11* 6 approx 1750 estimated deaths - which is "better" than the previous estimate by a factor of around 2.
This is about one tenth (1/10) of the US wide estimated (again - your figure) annual deaths from influenza.

Another factor seems to be that really young people - school kids and similar - can get it, but only have very mild, if any, symptoms - and recover quickly - possibly without being diagnosed as having this disease. So the likelihood of it spreading could be high, because it would be propagated by the young without most of us being aware.

People over 70 have a sigificantly higher death rate from this disease, and males are affected more.

Would a fairer measure be to compare the death rate from Covid 19 with the death rate from flu before flu vaccines were commonplace? That would perhaps give even less incentive for us to be worried. However, it turns out that there is wide variation in cases each year, and it's not immediately obvious that annual deaths from flu have dropped since vaccinations became usual.

See https://healthvigil.com/flu-season-deaths-us-worlswide/

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Of course I can't verify the accuracy of the links mentioned above.

The UK Government provides official annual data - https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...al-flu-reports - but I haven't found a summary of the trends over the last 50 (or even 30 years.

So should we just shrug off the issues relating to Covid 19? Accept that if our number is up that's bad luck, and get on with our lives (or not) as if nothing has happened? Experts in many countries appear to think not.

It might put things in a different perspective to look at deaths due to road traffic incidents - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ted_death_rate Perhaps for the US this is comparable to the expected rate from flu (not Covid 19) - though allowing for the wide annual variation. The US has a higher per capita death rate from road accidents than some European countries. The UK has a relatively low death rate from road traffic accidents compared with many countries.

It’s obviously a concern. It just seems that the relative panic over this, compared to something that is so prevalent and serious but mundane as Influenza, is unjustified. Imagine if the World came to a screeching halt every flu season.

[Dave2002]

It’s obviously a concern. It just seems that the relative panic over this, compared to something that is so prevalent and serious but mundane as Influenza, is unjustified. Imagine if the World came to a screeching halt every flu season.

Exactly. That seems to be the state of play right now.

Re the zinc lozenges, there may be something in that, but only in small doses. I looked up the effects, and larger amounts of zinc can cause unpleasant side effects. There is I assume little point in overdosing on that. The person who sent a private note about the zinc lozenges appears to have been mischievously misquoted by at least one unscrupulous company.

As it happens we had a bottle of some vitamin tablets in, and they contain zinc. I suspect that many people might be more likely to die from choking on the tablets, which are - for me at any rate - awkwardly large. In case anyone doubts this, we knew someone who sadly choked to death after a medical problem. He was advised not to eat anything difficult, at least for a while - but fancied a meat chop. He lived by himself at the time. He was found later with a lump in his throat.

Re the "expensive pee" - mentioned further up - I did think of starting a new thread with a title "A wee issue". I did wonder whether the more golden fluid which emerges sometimes after taking large vitamin C tablets is due to vitamin C excretion, or perhaps more likely, and which I'd earlier assumed, due to the colouring in the tablets. I don't think vitamin C tablets are expensive, but most evidence is that 1000 mg tablets (which is way over the RDA) don't really have any significant effect - but will surely ward off scurvy.

They probably ward off vampires and witches too. I've never, AFAIK, been attacked by vampires or witches.

I won't mention asparagus and its effects in this post.

[Flay]

You can't compare it to influenza as it is a new disease, there is no vaccine, and such a high percentage are needing intensive hospital treatment within such a small time scale. And it is picking off medical and care staff. Italy is using every available ventilator but it isn't enough for the demand, so they are having to prioritise (meaning some will die unnecessarily). The UK's ITU provision is stretched at the best of times.

[Eine Alpensinfonie]

You can't compare it to influenza as it is a new disease, there is no vaccine, and such a high percentage are needing intensive hospital treatment within such a small time scale. And it is picking off medical and care staff. Italy is using every available ventilator but it isn't enough for the demand, so they are having to prioritise (meaning some will die unnecessarily). The UK's ITU provision is stretched at the best of times.

Very true, but with the current hysteria, you'd think we were talking about bubonic plague. To date, there have been as many UK deaths from the virus as there are road deaths every single day (on average) in the UK. Yet there's no mass hysteria about that.

[ardcarp]

Metamorphoses after Covid

Nice one.

For some meditative relief, try https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NELPgupO5w8

[ardcarp]

Obviously not so with viruses, which have (for want of a better word) 'compounding' growth

It's a bit like the rice-grains on the chess board riddle. If we're talking about doubling, then the numbers become silly. So let's just hope that not every affected person will infect two others.....

[LHC]

Very true, but with the current hysteria, you'd think we were talking about bubonic plague. To date, there have been as many UK deaths from the virus as there are road deaths every single day (on average) in the UK. Yet there's no mass hysteria about that.

We still have relatively few confirmed cases in the UK compared to our neighbours in France, Germany and especially Italy (over 9,000 cases and nearly 500 dead to date). The WHO estimates that the mortality rate will be about 3%, which is much higher than for seasonal flu. Even if only 10% of the UK population end up getting the virus, this could still result in around 180,000 deaths. Apart from the idiots stockpiling a years supply of loo roll, I haven’t seen much evidence of hysteria.

[MrGongGong]

Unless so-called "statutory sick pay" is extended to those who are self employed or on zero hours contracts it's a waste of time telling folks to stay at home and get "sick pay" from day1.

[Boilk]

Unless so-called "statutory sick pay" is extended to those who are self employed or on zero hours contracts it's a waste of time telling folks to stay at home and get "sick pay" from day1.

They should spell it "statuTory" to distinguish it from the real thing.

[Flay]

I was speaking to my brother this afternoon who lives in Hong Kong. They have all taken hygiene and avoidance measures very seriously, and there have been minimal incidents of the disease. He was very concerned - in fact frantically worried - about the lax UK government's attitude.

This was an excellent factual (and worrying) Channel 4 interview. Especially note the part on social distancing at 9:45 – 10:56:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcJDpV-igjs&feature=youtu.be

[MrGongGong]

They should spell it "statuTory" to distinguish it from the real thing.

Like many people, if I don't go to work I don't get paid
If I get sick (which has happened before) I get nothing regardless of how much tax/NI have paid

It's a bigger problem for those on zero-hours who we rely on to keep things moving, clean and working.