Coronavirus

[teamsaint]

kernel: I fully accept your point about packed commuter trains but wouldn't we still expect Surrey to be worse? And I'd have thought Kent's figures would be far higher on this basis.

I wonder if there is some distortion around NE hants depending on which hospitals have ICUs ? Is there one ( a hospital with ICU ) in Farnborough ? But I’d assume Frimley has one, so it may even out if there is one in Farnborough.

It just occurs to me that the biggest numbers early on in London were for Southwark and other boroughs around Waterloo,so that may have had an impact on the Hants / Surrey numbers. But Surrey sort of looks about right, and Hants really does look like an outlier.

[oddoneout]

Whatever happened to the Freegan movement? One hears nothing of it these days...

Gone mainstream or alternatively become community fridges?

[Simon B]

Any suggestions?

Surrey is more diffuse than Hampshire.

Biggest places in Surrey (2011):
Woking ~105k
Guildford ~77k
Walton ~67k
Ewell ~52k

Big places in Hants (2011):
Southampton ~254k
Pompey ~238k
Basingstoke ~107k
Eastleigh ~79k
Farnborough ~65k
Andover ~63k
Aldershot ~57k

So, in Surrey, 300k live in places 50k+
In Hants, 863k live in places 50k+

Epidemic is an exponential phenomenon, the more densely packed people are the disproportionately more rapidly it spreads - see London.

Like all such theories, could be drivel, could be 101 other things. One step would be to check whether the above holds for other counties in the list.

Could just be a fluke of where it got to first. Everywhere could be on the same trend - just starting from a different date.

[kernelbogey]

From just over the Hants / Wilts border, which you can see from just up the road....

A friend from the Waterside tells me that there was/ is a big cluster around Basingstoke, which you’d have to guess is a commuter based thing, as KB suggests. It would have to be a really big cluster to distort the figure that far, but with the cities not included in the figures, Basingstoke would he a pretty big proportion of what is left.

There was a report over a week ago of cases at a care home near Basingstoke. Haven't heard more news about this, but that coud be part of the Basingstoke 'distortion', especially if (as is likely) there were many cross-infections within the home or outside.

[LeMartinPecheur]

I wonder if there is some distortion around NE hants depending on which hospitals have ICUs ? Is there one ( a hospital with ICU ) in Farnborough ? But I’d assume Frimley has one, so it may even out if there is one in Farnborough.

Google suggests the Hants ICUs are just Basingstoke and Winchester, plus presumably Southampton and Portsmouth. Frimley doesn't seem to have one - Surrey ICUs appear to be Ashford (thought that was Kent!), Chertsey, Guildford and Redhill.

[cloughie]

The person for whom I ascertained this information is recovering from an unsuccessful operation intended to save the sight in one eye following a detached retina, which might make online ordering a bit tricky for her were she online (which she's not).
As it happens, I've been using a very efficient online pharmacy for several months.
I just happen to like helping other people .

[teamsaint]

Google suggests the Hants ICUs are just Basingstoke and Winchester, plus presumably Southampton and Portsmouth. Frimley doesn't seem to have one - Surrey ICUs appear to be Ashford (thought that was Kent!), Chertsey, Guildford and Redhill.

I cant really think of anything that would distort the figures that much unless the Surrey residents around the NE Hants borders get sent to Basingstoke.

Incidentally, there are some very low numbers in the East of the country, Hull, Lincs etc.

[LeMartinPecheur]

Surrey is more diffuse than Hampshire.

Biggest places in Surrey (2011):
Woking ~105k
Guildford ~77k
Walton ~67k
Ewell ~52k

Big places in Hants (2011):
Southampton ~254k
Pompey ~238k
Basingstoke ~107k
Eastleigh ~79k
Farnborough ~65k
Andover ~63k
Aldershot ~57k

So, in Surrey, 300k live in places 50k+
In Hants, 863k live in places 50k+

Simon: see my original post. Portsmouth and Southampton aren't part of the Hampshire figures there because they are separate local government entities. Subtracting the two city populations, that puts Hampshire itself pretty close to your Surrey figures. So sadly, I don't think you've hit the answer flush!

[Cockney Sparrow]

Just watched the minister Zahawi on Newsnight. He's often been sent out to defend the indefensible. Early on, the NHS said it had under 9,000 ventilators. Hancock on TV said we now have 12,000. We don't - we don't have 10,000. Specialist medical parts manufacturer filled in the Business dept form - heard nothing back. The obvious action would have been to urgently scale up existing manufacturers - they haven't. Magical thinking lives on - they want to believe - we should meekly suck it up and believe it.
And the increase in testing has been derisory. We should just believe that they will manage to achieve what appear to be fantasy figures.

Zahawi, thankfully properly taken to task and stopped from answering different questions, latching onto statements of the Bxxxxxng obvious at great length. He didn't have an answer - at such times as all these leading companies with no experience actually deliver the new ventilators, the peak will have passed. Zahawi accused the presenter (Maitless) of sniping and was told in response he was being asked to provide answers and clarity.

Not to forget, they've given themselves a clear run of 4 weeks with no Parliament sitting and much attenuated accountability.

[johnb]

41 today I think. 28 in England and 13 in the other nations.

That's very interesting.

The [running 3 day averages of] percentage increases in number of deaths have been consistently decreasing over the last five days. Of course this probably reflects what would have been happening to infections some 14 or so days earlier, way before the current crackdown.

20/03/2020	44.8%
21/03/2020	31.5%
22/03/2020	25.1%
23/03/2020	23.8%
24/03/2020	21.9%
25/03/2020	18.3%

[Edit] The figures quotes are the running 3 day averages, NOT the individual daily percentage. Apologies for the confusion.

[Dave2002]

This article from a very recent New Scientist suggests ways the virus can linger on surfaces, and also whether we should worry about that - https://www.newscientist.com/article...ey-infect-you/

The lingering is relevant to activities like home shopping, home deliveries etc. Basically the article suggests that most of the transmission is by air borne droplets, though you could pick up the virus by touching a surface if it's contaminated - which for example most hand rails in large cities will be. The article does suggest that trying to disinfect home deliveries is probably a waste of time - low risk, and unless one used appropriate cleaning materials would in any case be ineffective.

[DracoM]

DCMS Sub-committee on Online Harms and Disinformation to investigate disinformation on COVID-19

[Once Was 4]

This article from a very recent New Scientist suggests ways the virus can linger on surfaces, and also whether we should worry about that - https://www.newscientist.com/article...ey-infect-you/

The lingering is relevant to activities like home shopping, home deliveries etc. Basically the article suggests that most of the transmission is by air borne droplets, though you could pick up the virus by touching a surface if it's contaminated - which for example most hand rails in large cities will be. The article does suggest that trying to disinfect home deliveries is probably a waste of time - low risk, and unless one used appropriate cleaning materials would in any case be ineffective.

But it looks as if golfers are immune: just nipped down and back to the Co-op for a newspaper, a loaf of bread and a pint of milk and walked past the golf club. Large families gathered in a big group whilst dad strides off jovially with his mates and his clubs.

[Bryn]

But it looks as if golfers are immune: just nipped down and back to the Co-op for a newspaper, a loaf of bread and a pint of milk and walked past the golf club. Large families gathered in a big group whilst dad strides off jovially with his mates and his clubs.

Have you advised the police of this sort of unhealthy activity?

[Once Was 4]

There were a couple of PCSOs walking up the road. The Yorkshire Post is warning that the police are about to start arresting young people who are deliberately flouting social distancing. Sadly, there is now a hashtag 'boomerRemover' to describe COVID - 19; some young people seem to think that it will only affect older people, they are immune, and that is a good thing. Some are conflating it with Brexit and Global Warming. It is no good just calling them'idiots' - I know enough from spells as a peripatetic brass teacher and exam invigilator to realise that young people do not process information as adults do; and some are out of the control of their parents. One lady whom I know, a very strong person normally, told me something about her teenage son and what he sometimes does, albeit in jest, which makes me realise the problems that some parents may have. Perhaps career teachers on this group can comment much better than I can.