Coronavirus

[LMcD]

Just heard from a contact in Scotland; they are furious that he has taken the virus to Aberdeen.

I suppose Nicholas Witchell will be wheeled out again to tell us, in his usual unbearably pompous self-important style, how we are to face this latest crisis.

[Old Grumpy]

Any idea what's wrong? How old is it? Quite often it's a drain problem - also depending on the make that can present real problems.

A few ideas:

Do any of the lights come on?
Is the water still in it?
Can you open the door (not good if the water is still in ...!!!)
Has it got a fluff drain plug at the front?
If it's a Bosch - or Hotpoint or similar you might be able to clear out the fluff from the drain plug - and it might then work.

HOWEVER If it's a Miele or similar DON'T try that without checking a few things first. The problem with some models is that they have a safety device designed to stop water flooding down through high rise flats etc. If you follow the instructions for getting the fluff out of a Miele - which you may perhaps not have done before - there's a high chance that you'll get water into the body, which will shut off the inlet valve. That's a total pain - so try to avoid that particular state - it can be fixed, but takes time, probably some heaving and may waste days. You might not be able to do that by yourself anyway, because of weight etc.

Can you pull the machine out from wherever it's located? This can also be hard - modern machines are often built in and just about immovable. If so, are any of the pipes kinked?

Is the drain outlet blocked? Can you remove the drain outlet - which might just hook over a drain tube. If so, you might be able to blow back down it to loosen a blockage inside the machine. [I've done that with dishwashers before now] Probably best not to do that with the power turned on. Might also be sensible to turn off the water inlet tap if there is one - while trying anything.

If it's a recent model, there might be error codes showing. Can you check those. Sometimes also, you can make the machines go into a different state by pressing "unusual" sequences of buttons, or powering off, then on. Try to force it to a rinse or spin cycle to force it to drain.

Those are my few suggestions - slightly random - for the time being. The wretched things are often quite heavy and a real pain to deal with. Sometimes moving them around a bit can shift the problem.

If it's old you could buy a new one, and get someone to fit it - but most stores are not providing a fitting service right now.

Bad luck that you've got that issue - hope you find a solution soon.

Thanks, may look into that.

OG

[Old Grumpy]

Better than hanging the bags from trees, which I think some people do. Yuk!

Probably better not to have a dog at all in the first place


(IMV)

[Dave2002]

Probably better not to have a dog at all in the first place

I tend to agree, but some people like them a lot, and there are clear psychological and health benefits for some people. Not quite relevant to the immediate discussion, but the case of the person who wanted food and was advised to go to a food bank, and then moaned that the food bank didn't have dog food rings alarm bels with me about people's priorities.

Some dogs are amazing - guide dogs and service dogs, and did anyone else notice the dog in University Challenge the other night?

[Serial_Apologist]

Indeed, I don’t know why Khan thought that would be a good idea. Matt Hancock has commented this evening that the tube should be running a full service.

Well that's all right then...

Tube travelling down 30% today according to lunchtime news: still far too many of course - shot of crowded platform at Greenwich: why can't central London communters walk the odd few miles from there? - but train drivers furious at attacks on Khan, some 30% of them being apparently laid off with illness, and TfL are asking retired signals operators to come back.

[Dave2002]

BJ has now tried to make it very clear that only essential workers should travel, and that includes construction workers, unless they are involved in work on hospitals and other essential buildings.

One thing which should also be noted is that with people working or just entertaining themselves from home, that strains on computer networks and IT services have increased considerably. Again, maybe there should be priority of some businesses over others in allocation of communications bandwidth. Also some organisations have a notion of core time, so even remote workers are logging in during those periods. This is bringing some of the activity in those organisations almost to a standstill. Remote workers should be encouraged to work at any time which suits them, and if necessary shift systems introduced to reduce the IT loads. Perhaps management are unaware of how inefficient some computers and IT systems become if they are run near their limits. A 70% reduction in loading might easily double throughput, and a 50% reduction might increase throughput further. Spreading the IT load over the day (and night) will also help. Just because a boss wants to see that all "his" (or "her") team is logged on by 10am, doesn't mean that that is a good way to operate. I know not all firms or bosses are like that, but some feel insecure if they don't behave like that.

However, under the current circumstances, workers in IT and communications could very well count as essential workers.
The trouble with IT is that it's not always possible to know, or control what people do. Are they running programs to sequence DNA or RNA, or manage a pandemic, or give people useful advice, or allow them to communicate with help etc., or are they watching porn, playing games, doing on-line gamblng, or watching streamed boxed sets which might overload the communications channels?

[johnb]

I couldn't access the FT article mentioned earlier, but I found one in the Intelligencer from the US which probably reports the same thing - https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...lf-of-u-k.html

The draft paper refered to in the FT article is available here

I haven't read the paper and I'm not sure I will understand it when I do. So I don't know whether it supports the FT headline that 50% of the population may have already been infected by Covid-19.

For that claim to be true it would mean the Covid-19 infection mortality would have to be very significantly lower than the current 0.5% to 1% estimates otherwise there would have been a dramatic rise in deaths during January/February/March.

[teamsaint]

BJ has now tried to make it very clear that only essential workers should travel, and that includes construction workers, unless they are involved in work on hospitals and other essential buildings.

One thing which should also be noted is that with people working or just entertaining themselves from home, that strains on computer networks and IT services have increased considerably. Again, maybe there should be priority of some businesses over others in allocation of communications bandwidth. Also some organisations have a notion of core time, so even remote workers are logging in during those periods. This is bringing some of the activity in those organisations almost to a standstill. Remote workers should be encouraged to work at any time which suits them, and if necessary shift systems introduced to reduce the IT loads. Perhaps management are unaware of how inefficient some computers and IT systems become if they are run near their limits. A 70% reduction in loading might easily double throughput, and a 50% reduction might increase throughput further. Spreading the IT load over the day (and night) will also help. Just because a boss wants to see that all "his" (or "her") team is logged on by 10am, doesn't mean that that is a good way to operate. I know not all firms or bosses are like that, but some feel insecure if they don't behave like that.

However, under the current circumstances, workers in IT and communications could very well count as essential workers.
The trouble with IT is that it's not always possible to know, or control what people do. Are they running programs to sequence DNA or RNA, or manage a pandemic, or give people useful advice, or allow them to communicate with help etc., or are they watching porn, playing games, doing on-line gamblng, or watching streamed boxed sets which might overload the communications channels?

Some advice to the public might be useful by way of help. Download films and music off peak, don't engage in unnecessary social media activity at peak times () or whatever .

[LeMartinPecheur]

Right stuff in wrong places?

I guess this is obvious but I haven't seen it said.

With the closure of almost all eating establishments, the wholesale suppliers to the catering trade must be stacked out with foodstuffs, toilet rolls etc and many of them will be heavily concentrated in cities like London and Manchester.

With commuters who routinely bought lunches and dinners near place of work now staying at home, a lot of stuff is now presumably sitting on shelves in completely the wrong place.

I'd have thought that the wise ones in such wholesalers would have got quickly on the phone to the supermarkets (local ones or central buying departments) but have they?

[Dave2002]

The draft paper refered to in the FT article is available here

Thanks. I guess everyone else is trying to read it, as accessing it is difficult. I'll try again later.

I'm not sure if your inference is correct, but I'll think about it, and if I get the paper later on will consider again.

Elsewhere it has been noted that it might have been possible to pick up the Covid thing from the data, but the differences weren't so noticeable during January and February. Again, I'd have to look at that again.

I think the data is changing all the time. Allegely some of the peaks in cases are now in younger goups, say 30-50 year old age group - not the 70+, but for me that is hearsay, and it would in any case have to be normalised against population proportions.

Are you working in this area?

[Dave2002]

Some advice to the public might be useful by way of help. Download films and music off peak, don't engage in unnecessary social media activity at peak times () or whatever .

No comment!

Actually what are peak times? It's not only comms on networks though, but also internal data movements within organisations. Possibly some organisations do a lot of data movement internally which is now being shifted to outside networks. I just don't know. Comms networks can prioritise data, according to application - QoS. Really critical comms is, of course, done by completely different networks.

Relatively few people understand about the kind of thrashing/deadlock/livelock things which can go on in computer and comms systems, and many just get irritated that they can't get their email, or the latest film etc. If they were told why this happened, and how to run on a - hopefully sensible - schedule, it might be possible to get everyone's data through a lot quicker. Some important work, such as sample scanning from hospitals, is now being done by doctors and pathologists at home, and is clearly much more vital than watching the latest episode of ... well, whatever.

[Pulcinella]

I guess this is obvious but I haven't seen it said.

With the closure of almost all eating establishments, the wholesale suppliers to the catering trade must be stacked out with foodstuffs, toilet rolls etc and many of them will be heavily concentrated in cities like London and Manchester.

With commuters who routinely bought lunches and dinners near place of work now staying at home, a lot of stuff is now presumably sitting on shelves in completely the wrong place.

I'd have thought that the wise ones in such wholesalers would have got quickly on the phone to the supermarkets (local ones or central buying departments) but have they?

A FOOD wholesaler based near York, which serves the catering industry, has begun delivering goods to residents in York and the surrounding area following the coronavirus outbreak.

https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/18322102.coronavirus-food-wholesaler-now-delivering-public-york-surrounding-area/

[Count Boso]

Indeed, I don’t know why Khan thought that would be a good idea. Matt Hancock has commented this evening that the tube should be running a full service.

Is Matt Hancock volunteering his services a train driver, perhaps? Apparently 30% of staff, train drivers and control centre workers are currently off sick. Not something the mayor has complete control over.

[johnb]

Thanks. I guess everyone else is trying to read it, as accessing it is difficult. I'll try again later.

I'm not sure if your inference is correct, but I'll think about it, and if I get the paper later on will consider again.

Elsewhere it has been noted that it might have been possible to pick up the Covid thing from the data, but the differences weren't so noticeable during January and February. Again, I'd have to look at that again.

I think the data is changing all the time. Allegely some of the peaks in cases are now in younger goups, say 30-50 year old age group - not the 70+, but for me that is hearsay, and it would in any case have to be normalised against population proportions.

Are you working in this area?

The likely death ratio for all those infected with Covid-19 (as distinct from confirmed cases) has been estimated as being between 0.5% and 1.0% (SAGE document "SPI-M-O: Consensus Statement on 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)" dated 2nd March. https://assets.publishing.service.go..._covid-19_.pdf

If we take the lower 0.5%, then if 50% of the UK population has been infected with Coronavirus that would imply a minimum of 166,000 additional deaths for the UK over January, February and March. (66.4M x 0.5 x 0.005). The figure for England and Wales only would be 148,000 additional deaths.

The registered deaths for England and Wales were

Jan 19: 53,910
Feb 19: 45,796
Mar 19: 43,946

Jan 20: 56,706

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlyfiguresondeathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidence

So an additional 148,000 deaths over a three month peiod would be very dramatic indeed. It doesn't show up in January. February 2020 hasn't yet been published but it is highly doubtful whether such a rise would have gone unnoticed.

So, if the 50% already infected theory is correct the Infected Fatality Ratio would have to be very considerably lower than the 0.5% to 1.0% - by an order of magnitude.

In any case the 0.5% to 1.0% is an estimate because we don't really know the number of mild coronavirus cases.

The only way to prove things one way or the other is by extensive antibody testing.

The title of the paper referred to by the FT is "Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic".

No, I don't work in this field so my ramblings should be taken with a very large pinch (not to say bucket) of salt.

[Serial_Apologist]

Is Matt Hancock volunteering his services a train driver, perhaps? Apparently 30% of staff, train drivers and control centre workers are currently off sick. Not something the mayor has complete control over.

Exactly!