Coronavirus

[gradus]

Pet, I have had a good report of the service by AO. No personal experience, nor financial interest!
kb

Edit: I bought a Panasonic combined microwave/grill/oven in 1993. It has worked 99% perfectly for 27 years: one trip to a service agent to check out (and solve) a strange noise. I hardly ever use my 'main' oven as a result. Use it several times a day.

With similarly impeccable timing our washing machine has burst a bracket or some such problem and is unusable; hand-washing takes me back 50 years to first being married and not being able to afford to buy anything.

[Dave2002]

This graph from John Burn-Murdoch (via FT) summarizes the world situation very well:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1237748598051409921

or
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Very interesting graph. Note that the vertical scale is logarithmic! Ouch!

This means that although it looks as though the death rate is leveling off - and indeed it possibly is in some countries - like China - it would look considerably worse if plotted on a linear scale.

People really need to understand what exponential growth looks like.

2^10 is about 1 thousand
2^20 is about 1 million
2^ 30 is about 1 billion (US)
2^ 40 is about 1000 billion (US) - which is a number bigger than the number of people on the planet.

Thus a hypothetical death rate which doubles every day is completely unsustainable after around 33 days - everyone dead - just from 1 case.
If the doubling is every 2 days - that would take 66 days.
If the doubling is every 3 days - that would take 99 days.

Etc.

Of course that is not happening - as some people survive, so instead look at infection rates. We now know that a large number of people have been infected, and survived, but they may have been able to pass on the disease to others, including the so-called vulnerable people. We also don't know yet whether people who have had the disease can get it again, or whether they might still be able to pass it on.

If infected people are ill and possibly hospitalised for 8 days (some may be longer, while some may recover without hospital treatment) then an improving situation would be one in which demand for hospital beds and treatment started to decrease. This seems to have happened in China, but it could flare up again. That is the danger with this kind of disease. Other countries have faced, and are continuing to face, similar problems.

Doing the maths/simulation may be somewhat hard - various approaches could be used - including differential equations, simulation modelliing, and queuing theory.

However, a spreadsheet calculation suggests that for a country or health service to stand any chance of not going critical the infection rates should be lower than a doubling every 3 days. The lower that doubling rate is the better.

Even a doubling every 10 days could still be problematic. Consider the case that there's a hospital which can treat 10 patients, of whom (say) 9 survive and recover within 10 days, and one passes on - and goes to the mortuary. That hospital might be able to treat another 10 patients in the following 10 days and so on, but the infection is still in the population outside and causing illness and death. If the medical services can identify exactly which people in the population at large need treatment, then a queueing model like that might work, and cope. In practice that isn't going to happen in most countries. If there are more cases being generated in each 10 day period than can be dealt with in the hospital, then the situation still goes out of control.

Besides the hospital intervention, other processes will be going on outside. Some people will recover, others will not - so eventually the high rate of infection and death will reduce. So a combination of natural "stabilisation" and rapid and effective treatment could control this disease in some countries.

Social distancing is important as even a seemingly small reduction in the day to day infection and/or death rates can have a big effect over a longer time. This message does need to be got through.

[Dave2002]

With similarly impeccable timing our washing machine has burst a bracket or some such problem and is unusable; hand-washing takes me back 50 years to first being married and not being able to afford to buy anything.

According to Mr Gove, this morning, it is allowable to call in someone to fix it, who may try to do so if precautions for your and his/her health are taken.

[Bryn]

With similarly impeccable timing our washing machine has burst a bracket or some such problem and is unusable; hand-washing takes me back 50 years to first being married and not being able to afford to buy anything.

If you can identify the faulty part, ti might be worth trying espares, though I am sorry to say they sometimes send out the wrong part. You need as many details as you can garner regarding make, model and, if possible, the serial number of the machine.

[Anastasius]

Here's a moral dilemma.

Two 'children' at different univesities, both approx 200 miles from home. Number 1, who doesn't drive, was collected and brought home yesterday (Sunday) because parents suspected a lockdown was imminent. Number 2, who does drive and has a car, didn't come home on Sunday but rang to ask if driving home overnight Monday/Tuesday would be OK. Both from big cities. 'Home' is in the countryside.

Further dilemma.

Both parents over 70 though in good health.
Number 2 living with boyfriend (regarded as part of the family).
Boyfriend's home has family member with serious health problems.

What would you do in parents' situation? Head or heart?

Can they isolate the 'children' sufficiently ?

Where does Boyfriend want to go ? Think perhaps he should go with girlfriend to her parents. If either of the two 'children' or the boyfriend are infected then they pose less of a risk to the over 70 in good health as opposed to the family member with serious health problems.

[Count Boso]

Many of the relevant people will indeed be already 'in the system', but it will still be a piecemeal hit and miss process.The irony is that the benefits of a centralised system were agreed some years ago apparently.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/government-ignored-advice-set-up-uk-emergency-alert-system

There will be those who fall through the net through lack of a device or up to date postal address - but that is always the case.

The text is being sent out by the mobile networks, so everyone with a mobile should receive it:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52017451

[Dave2002]

Can they isolate the 'children' sufficiently ?

Where does Boyfriend want to go ? Think perhaps he should go with girlfriend to her parents. If either of the two 'children' or the boyfriend are infected then they pose less of a risk to the over 70 in good health as opposed to the family member with serious health problems.

But the risk is still significant if the parents are over 70, and if the 'children' are infected. They should keep away - but where do they go? Buy a tent and camp in someone's garden maybe - though still problems of sanitation and food. They should collectively go for the least risk option - which most probably means a. stay away from parents if at all possible, b. go to healthy parents - but they should then all each self isolate - in case one gets infected and they all go down c. go to the parent with health issues as a very last resort. I would suggest that a. is the one to go for unless there really is no other solution. Have the universities forced them out of accommodation? I think some have arrangements for this kind of situation. In that case that would probably be preferable to a.

[Cockney Sparrow]

If you can identify the faulty part, ti might be worth trying espares, though I am sorry to say they sometimes send out the wrong part. You need as many details as you can garner regarding make, model and, if possible, the serial number of the machine.

In addition to Bryn's suggestions, this outfit, as well as selling spare parts, takes the trouble to host a forum with information on "white goods" to help enquirers.

https://www.ukwhitegoods.co.uk/forums/

[Pulcinella]

I've just received a text message from UK_Gov entitled CORONAVIRUS ALERT telling me I must stay at home.
After a link to information and exemptions it says:
Stay at home.
Protect the NHS.
Save lives.

Here's hoping that people follow the advice.

BBC News article about this message:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52017451

[Dave2002]

I haven't seen, but I heard about TV programmes this morning showing people jammed on tube trains in London - pretty much "as normal". How is that supposed to help?

Is the idea that the 20-40 year olds in London just pretend that nothing has happened, and get infected, and put up with the resulting disease - which might not be too bad for them - and then when they eventually meet their older friends and relatives, they will pass on the deadly thing to them?

I understand that in emergencies people may do things which seem risky - indeed are risky - for the greater good - but are all the people on the tube trains really key workers who absolutely have to go in to work that way? Maybe they are - maybe there's no alternative - but it does seem odd.

[Once Was 4]

I haven't seen, but I heard about TV programmes this morning showing people jammed on tube trains in London - pretty much "as normal". How is that supposed to help?

Is the idea that the 20-40 year olds in London just pretend that nothing has happened, and get infected, and put up with the resulting disease - which might not be too bad for them - and then when they eventually meet their older friends and relatives, they will pass on the deadly thing to them?

I understand that in emergencies people may do things which seem risky - indeed are risky - for the greater good - but are all the people on the tube trains really key workers who absolutely have to go in to work that way? Maybe they are - maybe there's no alternative - but it does seem odd.

YouTube has film taken yesterday afternoon at a lay-by on the Moors above Huddersfield. Large groups of youths drinking alcohol and throwing cans and bottles about plus cars full of older people doing goodness knows what (dogging?) I am afraid that there has to be a clampdown; but are there enough police to do that (anybody see 'Cops Like Us' last night on BBC1 where a Chief Constable - yes a Chief Constable - got quite clearly emotional about his struggle to keep people in Staffordshire safe). So what next - Marshall Law?

[Dave2002]

YouTube has film taken yesterday afternoon at a lay-by on the Moors above Huddersfield. Large groups of youths drinking alcohol and throwing cans and bottles about plus cars full of older people doing goodness knows what (dogging?) I am afraid that there has to be a clampdown; but are there enough police to do that (anybody see 'Cops Like Us' last night on BBC1 where a Chief Constable - yes a Chief Constable - got quite clearly emotional about his struggle to keep people in Staffordshire safe). So what next - Marshall Law?

Indeed, but people on trains seems really the height of stupidity - there's no chance of getting 2 metres away from anyone else on a tube train if it's even half full, and similarly with other commuter trains, so what is going on?

Is the intention to get London to lead the way - and saturate the hospitals in the SE first?

Is there a plan?

[Serial_Apologist]

I haven't seen, but I heard about TV programmes this morning showing people jammed on tube trains in London - pretty much "as normal". How is that supposed to help?

Is the idea that the 20-40 year olds in London just pretend that nothing has happened, and get infected, and put up with the resulting disease - which might not be too bad for them - and then when they eventually meet their older friends and relatives, they will pass on the deadly thing to them?

I understand that in emergencies people may do things which seem risky - indeed are risky - for the greater good - but are all the people on the tube trains really key workers who absolutely have to go in to work that way? Maybe they are - maybe there's no alternative - but it does seem odd.

On the lunchtime news it was suggested a lot of the culprits could well be construction workers travelling to or from jobs. Crossrail and HS2 are being put on hold for now. I understood construction was one of the banned occupations pro tem, apart from people working on or building hospitals.

[Bryn]

A warning from China in 2007.

If in a hurry, search for "bats" in the text.

[MrGongGong]

On the lunchtime news it was suggested a lot of the culprits could well be construction workers travelling to or from jobs. Crossrail and HS2 are being put on hold for now. I understood construction was one of the banned occupations pro tem, apart from people working on or building hospitals.

If you are in the position where if you don't go to work you get nothing then people WILL travel to work regardless of what the government says
People need to be able to feed themselves and their families and have a roof over their heads
for many life is very precarious indeed and the distance between safety and homelessness is less than 2 weeks of earnings.

There is a simple solution to this which is to PAY people a basic income.