Coronavirus

[cloughie]

I ought to clarify my earlier remark: I LOVE the humour of it, not necessarily the content thereof.....

...then stop digging!

[Padraig]

It appears the Iranians might refuse any help regardless of the petition:

Iran wants the sanctions lifted. The petition calls for that. Perhaps the leadership in Iran sees the petition as another means to that end.
The sanctions have been hurting Iranian people for much longer than the virus has and their lifting would surely open the way for further easing of conditions there.
Be that as it may, I have signed.

[muzzer]

I’ve never been more depressed about the behaviour of my fellow country people in my life. This makes Brexit look like a minor disagreement in the pub. There’s an invisible enemy, that you can catch and pass on before showing any symptoms, and it’s a killer, but even 2 weeks ago we had a head start on fighting it compared to China and Italy. The evidence is overwhelming of what would happen. We have copious supplies if managed carefully, leaving all non essential resources available to be diverted to the NHS. And yet still the great British public knows better. I saw someone with a trolley full of bottled water coming out of Waitrose on Friday. Doubtless he and many like him were taking the air at the seaside today. I have no words.

[Dave2002]

When extrapolating likely UK fatalities from Italian data there is also the make-up of victims' previous/existing illnesses to take into account...



More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease. Given that the elderly here in the UK are likely much poorer practitioners of the Mediterranean diet (which is supposed to be good for heart health and blood pressure) a refined model, taking on board UK prevalences of these diseases vs. Italy, might project higher fatality rates here.

One problem with looking at diagrams like this is that it lulls one into thinking that an outcome is an inevitable consequence of an initial condition. Thus one might infer - erroneously - that there's an almost 50% chance of dying if one has 3 or more established medical conditions. This is the same error which is sometimes used to justify banning drivers from drinking, based on the observation that a significant number of drivers who have had accidents had drunk alcohol. In the case of drink driving there is a strong connection, but the argument can't be based in the way I have described. It is important also to consider those drivers who have not had accidents - of which there will be many - and estimate what proportion of those have also been drinking.

In this case it is important to remember that many people who have had previous illnesses may still not become ill - though the data is not looking so encouraging. Nevertheless one must watch out for reasoning which is based on incorrect notions of causality. Here a Bayesian approach or a conditional probability approach needs to be taken. It's still rough if one does fall into a severely at risk category, and the first part of the conditional has been matched.

[Old Grumpy]

Similar notice on the entrance to the car park in Blanchland today:

Dear Tourist and Visitors...


... please f**k off and leave us alone.*



OG

*. I paraphrase, of course, but the sentiment is still the same.

[MrGongGong]

I’ve never been more depressed about the behaviour of my fellow country people in my life. This makes Brexit look like a minor disagreement in the pub. There’s an invisible enemy, that you can catch and pass on before showing any symptoms, and it’s a killer, but even 2 weeks ago we had a head start on fighting it compared to China and Italy. The evidence is overwhelming of what would happen. We have copious supplies if managed carefully, leaving all non essential resources available to be diverted to the NHS. And yet still the great British public knows better. I saw someone with a trolley full of bottled water coming out of Waitrose on Friday. Doubtless he and many like him were taking the air at the seaside today. I have no words.

This really isn't what my experience where I live is
We are making plans for supporting those who need it
we are going to go and play music in the street
we are going to make sure that everyone is looked after

BUT

What do people expect when those in charge have been hoarding resources for years and get rewarded for it?

Sad to say but the Tories (not that i'm in any way a fan of the so called "opposition") don't want us to have an NHS, they don't use it, they have their private hospitals and doctors to care for them... but now, as this really is indiscriminate it's all getting a bit uncomfortable for them as they are as likely to die as the horrible poor and disabled people they despise so much.

[ardcarp]

I ought to clarify my earlier remark: I LOVE the humour of it, not necessarily the content thereof.....

Yes, sorry, my 'moral high ground' was a bit unnecessary. The 'not worth it anyway' was spot on.

[Anastasius]

... people who behave against the current advice are going to find out the hard way that this really is a problem. ....

They probably are not. But the others that they infect or kill will be. And the extra stress that they put on the NHS staff? I couldn't finish listening to this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQD4B_hmdvo

I am incandescent with rage. Had I an Uzi I would quite happily drive down the promenade and use it.

[Anastasius]

In the meantime - following on - is this a hoax or a scam, or is there actually anything in it .....

In our water treatment plant in the cellar, as part of the process, the water is passed down a very long tube with a UV lamp in it. So yes, the science is kosher...but that little toy is not.

[Anastasius]

Has anyone also read 'Torch the Dusties ' ?

[muzzer]

This really isn't what my experience where I live is
We are making plans for supporting those who need it
we are going to go and play music in the street
we are going to make sure that everyone is looked after

BUT

What do people expect when those in charge have been hoarding resources for years and get rewarded for it?

Sad to say but the Tories (not that i'm in any way a fan of the so called "opposition") don't want us to have an NHS, they don't use it, they have their private hospitals and doctors to care for them... but now, as this really is indiscriminate it's all getting a bit uncomfortable for them as they are as likely to die as the horrible poor and disabled people they despise so much.

I’m in a resolutely urban part of London, socially and financially diverse. People are losing their minds.

[Dave2002]

They probably are not. But the others that they infect or kill will be. And the extra stress that they put on the NHS staff? I couldn't finish listening to this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQD4B_hmdvo

I am incandescent with rage. Had I an Uzi I would quite happily drive down the promenade and use it.

I don't think using an Uzi is a solution - but I hear where you are going with this. This video from Italy only a day or so old is revealing - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkozG3IcXUU

Channel 4 News recently was also interesting, and Prof. Helen Ward from Imperial made an observation that there are (or should be) hundreds of people in the country who have been preparing for pandemics for years, yet they don't appear to have been called in to advise or help, or their advice has been ignored if they have been. I believe that in the past there were people whose jobs were to prepare planning for emergencies - indeed I know one such person - yet where has their expertise been applied in this current situation? On the one hand I understand that the government doesn't want to panic people, and is hoping to put together a constructive package of measures, but it seems that many opportunities to make use of prevous planning, previously thought out expertise, even if this is not directly applicable to the present situation are being missed. It should not be necessary to treat this as a completely new problem, which has to be dealt with from the ground upwards. It should be possible to build on previous work, which should have have been documented, and which some may still remember and be able to act upon. For a crisis like this, I tend now to agree with you that this is negligent and incompetent. It may be that things are moving a lot faster "behind the scenes" but right now this is not the feeling I have.

What part of exponential rise don't people understand? OK - the populace at large doesn't believe or want experts, and doesn't need mathematicians or scientists. Some politicians have, in the not very distant past, been chastised for not taking a strong leadership role. BJ should now come out and stop pretending it's all going to be nice, and we can all go out and have a nice day in the park, but really take leadership and either ask or demand that people take whatever steps are possible to defend themseleves, and at the same time to defend other people. Otherwise he is not a leader.

[LMcD]

I’ve never been more depressed about the behaviour of my fellow country people in my life. This makes Brexit look like a minor disagreement in the pub. There’s an invisible enemy, that you can catch and pass on before showing any symptoms, and it’s a killer, but even 2 weeks ago we had a head start on fighting it compared to China and Italy. The evidence is overwhelming of what would happen. We have copious supplies if managed carefully, leaving all non essential resources available to be diverted to the NHS. And yet still the great British public knows better. I saw someone with a trolley full of bottled water coming out of Waitrose on Friday. Doubtless he and many like him were taking the air at the seaside today. I have no words.

The public toilets in Skegness had to be closed because people were stealing loo rolls and sanitizers. Nail bar operators have been telling school authorities that they are essential workers and so their children have to go to school. A rave was organized in one of the National Parks. Who says that, as a nation, we lack determination and imagination?
As for the official advice - do I believe the chap with the tousled blond hair or the lady in the black dress? The fact that the virus doesn't survive very long outdoors will cheer me up as I set off on my next (solitary) walk.

[burning dog]

The fact that the virus doesn't survive very long outdoors will cheer me up as I set off on my next (solitary) walk.

I'm worried the congregations at beaches and parks will mean all of us are prevented from even solitary walks.

I was told on Friday at 2 am that I work in a key industry (surprise to me!). I walk to and and from work and pass an average of two on the way in and none on the the return. The two, usually the same two, are given a wide birth, but we do nod to each other. I would have thought an infinitesimal amount of people have been infected in this way. I hope we are not all "locked down". The Germans have restricted walks to two people or households, better than keeping people in altogether as I doubt it has any worse risk than a total curfew. The Germans seem to doing well on death per infection rate although it could be the way they process data.

[Dave2002]

The public toilets in Skegness had to be closed because people were stealing loo rolls and sanitizers. Nail bar operators have been telling school authorities that they are essential workers and so their children have to go to school. A rave was organized in one of the National Parks. Who says that, as a nation, we lack determination and imagination?
As for the official advice - do I believe the chap with the tousled blond hair or the lady in the black dress? The fact that the virus doesn't survive very long outdoors will cheer me up as I set off on my next (solitary) walk.

For once, and it is very hard to do so, do believe the blonde scruffy hair chap if he says that you shouldn’t go out.

Also, I would be cautious about mentioning that the virus doesn’t last long outdoors. Do we really know that? Tests have been done with “similar” viruses, and some can last for a long while on some surfaces. I was expecting a delivery of wood the other day, and I was prepared to move it all by hand (bare hands) which I have done before. Then I thought to check whether the virus could remain active on wood for a while. Clearly it shouldn’t matter if it hadn’t been exposed to the virus, but as my mother used to say “don’t touch that, you never know where it’s been”. In this case it’s not only where something has been which is important, but also who may have handled a product, or sneezed or dribbled over it.

I looked up details of tests for virus longevity, and decided that if my wood had been affected the virus might last outside for a week, possibly more. I decided that I could leave the wood outside for at least a week, and then only move it using gloves (probably disposable ones). As it happened the delivery didn’t come, but looking for information about how long viruses can exist in different environments, surfaces and at different temperatures, was helpful to me in deciding a strategy.

It is the case seemingly that it doesn’t survive for long in some situations, but it can clearly survive for long enough on some surfaces to still be a problem.
I believe that walking outside should not be a problem if you don’t go close to people, or touch anything, but recent news items suggest that many people aren’t acting sensibly, ignoring advice, and very possibly creating new hazards for others.

Until we really know for sure that it’s OK (i.e. highly unlikely to be a risk) to do so, I’d suggest caution in picking anything up, or touching objects.

As for stealing toilet paper from public toilets - probably guaranteed to get something from that!