Coronavirus

[Dave2002]

In some places restaurants and food chains are now offering food deliveries as a way of staying in busines. This seems like a good idea, though how it will work in practice I don't know. The danger is that the virus would still spread due to the deliveries, plus the fact that screening for the workers would surely be essential. As a way of keeping some staff in jobs and businesses more or less viable, that seems good - but do the risks outweigh the benefits. Risks: workers travelling to work - cleanliness, standards in kitchens - workers need to be screened before being employed on these tasks - deliveries increase risk - ringing doorbells, packaging etc.

[Dave2002]

I didn't realise that the Forum had become a dating site.

He's going to spot the mystery man, or woman, and claim his £10. A popular pastime in Brighton, I think.

[eighthobstruction]

....Just heard Waltons Belshazzar's Feast on Private Passions....wondered if Anton could get a North Eastern Northumberland version organised....reckon just made for that dialect....

[johnb]

The UK daily case and fatality figures can be found using an internet wayback machine, e.g.
https://web.archive.org/web/20200320...for-the-public

Or this is a link to an Excel file containing a table of the data, something I had been building up. (I know, I know - I should get a life.)

https://app.box.com/s/v8ejx4l48xpt0xd3w8zj4iuublju7pak

As can be seen, the figure of a 25% daily increase in infection you have used ("1.25^n") is roughly in line with the increases in the number of confirmed cases.

Of course the daily numbers of confirmed cases is influenced by the numbers being tested (and that varies significantly day to day) and the testing methodology (which has changed over time).

The daily increase in the number of deaths is significantly higher. It has recently been of the order of 44% but has now dropped to an average of ~31.5% over the last three days.

So it might be that the 25% figure is at the low end of possible rates of increase.

[Once Was 4]

He's going to spot the mystery man, or woman, and claim his £10. A popular pastime in Brighton, I think.

I have just been told by a contact who lives in one of the Lancashire resorts that it was buzzing with people yesterday and its cafes were packed Are they then exempt from the ban on pub and restaurant opening?

Or is there a collective death-wish? Or young people thinking that they are invincible? Sadly this will inevitably lead to a crackdown of the kind that a democratic country should never see. A couple of reputable sources say that we are two weeks behind the situation in northern Italy and there it has been exacerbated by people refusing to obey the rules being imposed.

Anyway, I listened to Elgar's In the South and Brahms 4 last evening: And, once my ageing back says enough of digging out weeds I think that only Bruckner will do.Then Beethoven 5 tomorrow as a gesture of defiance. What are others consoling themselves with?

[Bryn]

A lesson/warning re symptoms. Checking back through my emails I find that my last exchange with Carole Finer/Chant, who died from Cved-19 on Friday morning was on the evening of Thursday 12th. I was concerning her health, which had not been too good since the previous Sunday night. The crucial aspect of the exchange was that she described her symptoms thus: "Still not very well. But the symptoms are not Coronavirus. I’m just very tired and very constipated". We keep being advised that a persistent dry cough and raised temperature are what to look out for. Neither applied in her case, at that time. yet the end came just seven and a half days later. I think the wide variability of symptoms associated with this infection needs greater emphasis.

[Joseph K]

Just wondering: I have seen information that suggests that, since I am not in a 'vulnerable' group, I should practice social-distancing rather than the more stringent isolation; this would mean I am permitted out for walks. I suppose I just wonder what is classed as keeping one's distance, I mean, I did pass by quite a few people today in my walk around the Lake, however briefly, and I kept my distance the best I could. However, am I right in thinking in Italy people are not permitted now to go on walks just for leisure - and if this is the case, might it not be an idea to start doing this now, before things get worse?

[MrGongGong]

Just wondering: I have seen information that suggests that, since I am not in a 'vulnerable' group, I should practice social-distancing rather than the more stringent isolation; this would mean I am permitted out for walks. I suppose I just wonder what is classed as keeping one's distance, I mean, I did pass by quite a few people today in my walk around the Lake, however briefly, and I kept my distance the best I could. However, am I right in thinking in Italy people are not permitted now to go on walks just for leisure - and if this is the case, might it not be an idea to start doing this now, before things get worse?

I was going to get my accordion out
usually does the trick

[Bryn]

Just wondering: I have seen information that suggests that, since I am not in a 'vulnerable' group, I should practice social-distancing rather than the more stringent isolation; this would mean I am permitted out for walks. I suppose I just wonder what is classed as keeping one's distance, I mean, I did pass by quite a few people today in my walk around the Lake, however briefly, and I kept my distance the best I could. However, am I right in thinking in Italy people are not permitted now to go on walks just for leisure - and if this is the case, might it not be an idea to start doing this now, before things get worse?

As long as you stay far enough from others so as not to share virus-bearing aerosol droplets, all should be pretty safe. If unsure, stay at home. I will soon be going out for a woodland walk, keeping well away from anyone else. However, that will not be too difficult where I live. Though on a 1950s 'New Town' housing estate, access to little walked woodland paths are less than a minute's walk away from the front door. Keeping one's distance is no problem.

[Joseph K]

As long as you stay far enough from others so as not to share virus-bearing aerosol droplets, all should be pretty safe. If unsure, stay at home. I will soon be going out for a woodland walk, keeping well away from anyone else. However, that will not be too difficult where I live. Though on a 1950s 'New Town' housing estate, access to little walked woodland paths are less than a minute's walk away from the front door. Keeping one's distance is no problem.

Thanks. Yes, I think the plan will be to take routes where I pass by fewer people - which means avoiding the Lake, especially when the weather is nice. Perhaps I'll only go for a walk every other day.

[LeMartinPecheur]

Are they then exempt from the ban on pub and restaurant opening?

But is there a real, legal ban yet? I think not. Boris may put one through tomorrow but as of now I think all we've got is his polite but firm request, which we are 'entitled' to ignore

[cat]

But is there a real, legal ban yet? I think not. Boris may put one through tomorrow but as of now I think all we've got is his polite but firm request, which we are 'entitled' to ignore

Yes there is a ban in England and Wales

The government yesterday issued these regulations under powers conferred by the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984:

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Business Closure) (England) Regulations 2020
The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Business Closure) (Wales) Regulations 2020

[Bryn]

But is there a real, legal ban yet? I think not. Boris may put one through tomorrow but as of now I think all we've got is his polite but firm request, which we are 'entitled' to ignore

“We need now to push down further on that curve of transmission between us,

“And so following agreement with all the… devolved administrations, we are collectively telling cafes, pubs, bars and restaurants to close tonight as soon as they reasonably can and not to open tomorrow.

“Though, to be clear, they can continue to provide take out services."

However, this got watered down to "very clear advice":

“We’re also telling nightclubs, theatres, cinemas, gyms and leisure centres to close on the same timescale.”

"I say to people who do go against the very clear advice we are getting from our medical and scientific experts [that] you are not only putting your own life and the lives of your family at risk, you are endangering the community and making it more difficult for us to get on and protect the NHS and saves lives,"he told the room.

"We will not only save thousands of lives but come out of this thing faster."

[cloughie]

But is there a real, legal ban yet? I think not. Boris may put one through tomorrow but as of now I think all we've got is his polite but firm request, which we are 'entitled' to ignore

Do you really want to ignore it in the current situation?

[Old Grumpy]

Do you really want to ignore it in the current situation?

OG
I presume this question is rhetorical!