Coronavirus

[Simon B]

Well the Garbage In is:

- Current number of deaths

- Average mortality rate for all those infected.

- For those who tragically don't recover - the average number of days between infection and death.

- The daily increase in numbers infected. The confirmed cases are useless for this because (a) the numbers tested vary widely from day to day and (b) the methodology had changed. The only hard fact is the daily percentage increase in the number of deaths.

If extrapolating in time from just recorded UK deaths alone - you get an answer consistent with your comment re Italy.
If extrapolating UK recorded cases and the UK case mortality ratio - same answer.
If lining up Italy's recorded case and mortality numbers with the UK (matches with a 14 day lag) and then looking at where Italy is now - same answer.

For this not to be the case, an abrupt change in the trends will have to become visible within days. We can only hope.

[Simon B]

did anyone else hear these figures

Population of China ~ 1.5 Billion; 3200 fatal cases; UK population ~67 Million

3200/1.5e9*67e6 = 143 fatal cases in the UK.

Italy's population ~ 60 Million. This immediately dismisses the idea that everyone in China has somehow had it, and it hardly kills anyone (though this ignores any doubts some may have around what China has revealed, plus a deluge of more exotic/ludicrous conspiracy theories).

[Boilk]

When extrapolating likely UK fatalities from Italian data there is also the make-up of victims' previous/existing illnesses to take into account...



More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease. Given that the elderly here in the UK are likely much poorer practitioners of the Mediterranean diet (which is supposed to be good for heart health and blood pressure) a refined model, taking on board UK prevalences of these diseases vs. Italy, might project higher fatality rates here.

[BBMmk2]

When extrapolating likely UK fatalities from Italian data there is also the make-up of victims' previous/existing illnesses to take into account...



More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease. Given that the elderly here in the UK are likely much poorer practitioners of the Mediterranean diet (which is supposed to be good for heart health and blood pressure) a refined model, taking on board UK prevalences of these diseases vs. Italy, might project higher fatality rates here.

Thank you Bolk. Most interesting. Yes the Mediterranean Diet is one of the best to have. A bit late for me though, what with cancer and a leaky heart valve, that was created by some rather heavy duty chemotherapy I had.

[LMcD]

....someone was saying on Any Questions {I think I caught it right] that if the Chinese end total deaths model was 3200/their population size, then proportionately the GB death rate should be about 160 tops/population size....but of course we have passed that, and we are only at an early stage....all of a sudden there seems to be a love in with 'experts' again, who would have thought it....did anyone else hear these figures

....there is no way I can be a Casandra on this....I am optimistic...but i am not a mathematician

Strangely, Boris's - or was it Dominic's? - ruling that senior government figures are to avoid interviews with the BBC seems to have been forgotten. Let's hope that any plans to tamper with Auntie remain locked away somewhere and are quietly forgotten.

[Anastasius]

However, the way far too many are behaving, I fear not.

I'm afraid that you're going to be proved right. For many, life is 'doable' at the moment. One can imagine people part way through a house renovation..maybe a kitchen being renewed..dismantled ..or a bathroom. Building supplies are still coming through. Screwfix deliveries still happening. But....thanks to the selfishness of many ...viz Hove beach, Skegness etc we are going to be put into lockdown. Imagine a house with no kitchen and a young family for months on end.

[Anastasius]

Population of China ~ 1.5 Billion; 3200 fatal cases; UK population ~67 Million

3200/1.5e9*67e6 = 143 fatal cases in the UK.

Italy's population ~ 60 Million. This immediately dismisses the idea that everyone in China has somehow had it, and it hardly kills anyone (though this ignores any doubts some may have around what China has revealed, plus a deluge of more exotic/ludicrous conspiracy theories).

But on the other hand, if you look at the stats for Germany they have 5x the number of cases and yet their mortality is well below ours. So either they're doing something that we're not or the number of cases we have is being under-reported (or even unknown..since testing has to all intents and purposes stopped outside of hospitals)

[LMcD]

A revealing contrast. One of the contributors on last night's 'The Papers' on BBC News had been working in Canary Wharf, which was 99% empty, and the other working from home in Whitstable and watching a crowded promenade. In Southwold, many second homes that would normally be empty at this time of the year are now occupied by 'refugees' from London.

[cloughie]

A revealing contrast. One of the contributors on last night's 'The Papers' on BBC News had been working in Canary Wharf, which was 99% empty, and the other working from home in Whitstable and watching a crowded promenade. In Southwold, many second homes that would normally be empty at this time of the year are now occupied by 'refugees' from London.

That will place a heavier burden on the Suffolk NHS provision!

[rauschwerk]

A revealing contrast. One of the contributors on last night's 'The Papers' on BBC News had been working in Canary Wharf, which was 99% empty, and the other working from home in Whitstable and watching a crowded promenade. In Southwold, many second homes that would normally be empty at this time of the year are now occupied by 'refugees' from London.

That will keep them away from unfashionable Felixstowe, where I now live. Nothing (well.not much) beats a stroll on the seafront in the brisk north-easterlies currently blowing!

[Dave2002]

A revealing contrast. One of the contributors on last night's 'The Papers' on BBC News had been working in Canary Wharf, which was 99% empty, and the other working from home in Whitstable and watching a crowded promenade. In Southwold, many second homes that would normally be empty at this time of the year are now occupied by 'refugees' from London.

It's a hard one really. On the one hand, can people not be excused for wanting to get themselves and their families to a safer place? On the other hand, if they move without taking sensible precautions, and insuring that they themselves have not already got the virus, they are going to make things worse - for other people, and not actually help themselves.

One instance here - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...lands-51990534

Perhaps travel restrictions really are required, though now it looks as though in Italy one is not even allowed out in the open air now - even solo. That seems really tough.

The videos from yesterday showing people in Beijing going out for the first time in months offered some hope, though.

[Pulcinella]

Just chatted (at a distance) to our local pub landlady, out walking her dog, to see if there is anything we can do (help deliver meals if she started to provide a service to the neighbourhood, for example).
She was quite sanguine, and said that she would use the time to do a deep clean and some decorating.
There will, sadly, be many who won't be in such a position.

[LMcD]

That will keep them away from unfashionable Felixstowe, where I now live. Nothing (well.not much) beats a stroll on the seafront in the brisk north-easterlies currently blowing!

We're just about to go for a walk down towards the golf club. I shall be carrying a copy of the Felixstowe Flyer ....

[gradus]

We're just about to go for a walk down towards the golf club. I shall be carrying a copy of the Felixstowe Flyer ....

That's the way to do it but a bit blowy.

[Pulcinella]

We're just about to go for a walk down towards the golf club. I shall be carrying a copy of the Felixstowe Flyer ....

I didn't realise that the Forum had become a dating site.