Coronavirus

[french frank]

Is there a suitable organisation with a proven track record of delivering vaccines to disadvantaged countries/people(rather than personal pockets)? If so perhaps accept the booster and make a donation as well.

UNICEF seems to be leading the charity field, though I suppose they are focused on children who may not be a priority (and parents?)

https://www.unicef.org.uk/donate/coronavirus/

https://www.vaccinaid.org/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwqKuKBhCxARIsACf4XuFF2HXygOU4zEqXiSsbqW5Nb8tUwqIebLYDktRLHeOATY7HbV_6qsIaAnMWEALw_wcB

[Simon B]

Declining a booster jab in the UK will have specifically zero actual impact on availability to those in the mostly less wealthy nations most in need of vaccines. As a gesture or symbolic act, fair enough, though there is then a risk the actual dose declined will end up wasted.

UK booster doses are mostly Pfizer/BioNTech. These are practically useless in most of the countries in greatest need of initial doses as they are logistically difficult to work with. Too fragile and requiring of onerous cold storage and distribution networks. Ultimately, too expensive in themselves also.

This is an essential aspect of the alternative AZ vaccine platform - suitable for use in a broader range of environments and as cheap as possible. This partly informs the JCVI decision to recommend Pfizer for UK boosters, i.e. not utilising supply of AZ which would be better sent elsewhere.

[french frank]

Thanks, Simon B, that adds a solid practical point to my instinct (i.e. that AZ is what the poorer nations need, which I hadn't thought of).

[Serial_Apologist]

Thanks, Simon B, that adds a solid practical point to my instinct (i.e. that AZ is what the poorer nations need, which I hadn't thought of).

Seconded - nor had I.

[oddoneout]

Thanks, Simon B, that adds a solid practical point to my instinct (i.e. that AZ is what the poorer nations need, which I hadn't thought of).

It was an aspect that was covered in the excellent documentary shown some months ago detailing the way the vaccine was developed.
It's long been know that the efficacy of the polio vaccination programme for instance is compromised by the need for refrigeration although I think the tolerance versus efficacy levels are much better than the Pfizer type vaccines so there's some benefit even in less than ideal conditions, and it's fridges rather than industrial type freezers. As with the covid vaccine though there is still the risk that the jab is seen as the solution in every instance and vigilance for cases of disease and onward infection may be inadequate as a result.

[Dave2002]

The latest interactive maps published by the NY Times do not look good for the UK.
By most measures the UK does indeed look to be world beating - though that unfortunately is in a negative way - number of cases, number of deaths, percentage of cases/deaths etc.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-cases.html

Interesting maps, and worth playing around with for a short while. These do appear to be reasonably up to date, and by probing the maps current hot spots in the UK can be identified.
However, despite the rather gloomy nature of the reported data for the UK, the situation at present - at least as it feels within the country - seems to be that things are manageable.

The current petrol shortage spikes which now appear to have spread throughout much of the UK - even locally - so that perhaps there are now fewer cars on the road - seem to be of more concern now than spikes in coronavirus outbreaks.

[french frank]

The latest interactive maps published by the NY Times do not look good for the UK.

The government's 1-week time lag charts show, for instance, Bristol's decrease having gone into reverse over the previous 7-day total, i.e. has doubled from 545 to 1041 (to 23 Sept). And the areas in the North and Midlands are being gradually covered with the 400-799 per 100k dark red colour again.

However, despite the rather gloomy nature of the reported data for the UK, the situation at present - at least as it feels within the country - seems to be that things are manageable.

Good to hear that it's all manageable.

[Bryn]

[teamsaint]

Interesting, but only a part of the story ?

Here is age standardised Mortality for England and Wales for August, compared to the same month in previous years.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/august2021

Broadly in line with many previous years.

[Serial_Apologist]

Can some kind soul remind me as to how many persons are now allowed to attend weddings, christenings, funerals etc? I have to RSVP by tomorrow to an invitation to a cousin's funeral on Oct 25. Undoubtedly those organising will make the event a big tribute to his half century's contributions to his local church as an "elder", and I wouldn't want to be occupying a more worthy person's niche in the appreciation order. In addition, Bristol is a bit of a trek: other rellies driving down from Suffolk will use motorway links keeping them well away from London, thereby in all probability ruling out my cadging a lift from them, and I have yet to use public transport since lockdown.

[french frank]

Interesting, but only a part of the story ?

But Bryn's chart only deals with the comparison between the UK and Germany, France and Spain between June and October this year. The interesting feature is what has been happening since the beginning of August and now. There's so much other data in the link you gave that it's hard to pick out what's relevant and what's not.

[teamsaint]

But Bryn's chart only deals with the comparison between the UK and Germany, France and Spain between June and October this year. The interesting feature is what has been happening since the beginning of August and now. There's so much other data in the link you gave that it's hard to pick out what's relevant and what's not.

My point was just that one stat on its own isn't necessarily that conclusive.
Age standardised mortality is an important measure, but again , taken in isolation, not by any means the whole picture.
Case rates have a huge number of variables, and debatable significance, as do other stats.

[Dave2002]

Can some kind soul remind me as to how many persons are now allowed to attend weddings, christenings, funerals etc? I have to RSVP by tomorrow to an invitation to a cousin's funeral on Oct 25. Undoubtedly those organising will make the event a big tribute to his half century's contributions to his local church as an "elder", and I wouldn't want to be occupying a more worthy person's niche in the appreciation order. In addition, Bristol is a bit of a trek: other rellies driving down from Suffolk will use motorway links keeping them well away from London, thereby in all probability ruling out my cadging a lift from them, and I have yet to use public transport since lockdown.

As far as I can see there are no limits on numbers at memorial events. This was the last notification published - in August - https://www.gov.uk/government/public...ous%20approach.

Whether you decide to go to the event or not is very much your decision.

[french frank]

My point was just that one stat on its own isn't necessarily that conclusive.

Certainly not - but it does depend what you are seeking to conclude. The narrow political situation where the UK is considered the Covid hotspot of Europe may have its own repercussions. The view that 'Yes, maybe so, but really things aren't that much different here this year than in previous years' (if that's what you read into the data), will have no relevance to the situation vis-à-vis the other major countries, which is all that Bryn's graph indicated.

[Zucchini]

Covid by Numbers
(Making sense of the Pandemic with Data)

By David Spiegelhalter & Anthony Masters -Pelican £10.99

The Times appraisal (Tom Whipple) was very favourable and interesting. Perhaps the Forum Library could do with a copy?