Coronavirus

[Dave2002]

Here's more - https://theconversation.com/why-covi...en-next-165123

If anyone really wants to know about the SEIRS model - some details are here ... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41592-020-0856-2

- with yet another beta!

[LMcD]

Here's more - https://theconversation.com/why-covi...en-next-165123

If anyone really wants to know about the SEIRS model - some details are here ... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41592-020-0856-2

- with yet another beta!

BJ due to announce the latest weapon against Covid - Britain's World-Beating Beta Blocker

[Petrushka]

I see that the Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, is saying that restrictions will return to England if the coronavirus runs out of control.

Apart from being an admission of failure, wouldn't it make more sense to apply these restrictions before we actually get there and so prevent it running out of control (again)?

In addition, shouldn't Plan A and Plan B be reversed?

[french frank]

I see that the Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, is saying that restrictions will return to England if the coronavirus runs out of control.

I see that the Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, is saying that vaccine passporta are to be ditched. Or not, depending what happens. They remain in our armoury. Anyone notice Nick Robinson's reaction when he dropped that casually into the conversation? I saw the clip (Ditched???? But I was just going to ask you, er … )

[teamsaint]

I see that the Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, is saying that vaccine passporta are to be ditched. Or not, depending what happens. They remain in our armoury. Anyone notice Nick Robinson's reaction when he dropped that casually into the conversation? I saw the clip (Ditched???? But I was just going to ask you, er … )

They have just left the threat hanging over us. And a threat is what it is. The parliamentary committee found no justification for them, and there is no demonstrable public health benefit.There hasn't even been a decent case made for them. And that is before we start discussing the myriad non healthcare issues around them.

Incidentally, unless I have misread this, table 4 here shows that the risk of getting infected in age groups 40 to 80 is greater ( per 100k population) for the vaccinated than the unvaxxed, which, if correct, is just one more reason for Vaccine passports to be binned, since the no- test version of the passports would likely be actually counter productive.

Table 4, last two columns.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1016465/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_36.pdf

[french frank]

Incidentally, unless I have misread this, table 4 here shows that the risk of getting infected in age groups 40 to 80 is greater ( per 100k population) for the vaccinated than the unvaxxed

Looks odd but, I'm not sure, does the disparity in the sizes of the samples skew this enough to make comparisons difficult? If you take the 80+ group, they had overwhelmingly had both doses (84%) and only a small number (4.5%) were unvaccinated. Obviously numerically, most of the infections will be among the double vaccinated. For the under 18s the picture is reversed. And in any case, overwhelmingly the infections are among the under 29s.

But as has been said, increasingly infections are bound to be among the vaccinated as the number of unvaccinated people decreases and it becomes harder for the virus to 'locate' them.

Andrew Rawnsley has a good discussion on the issues surrounding vaccine passports.

[teamsaint]

Looks odd but, I'm not sure, does the disparity in the sizes of the samples skew this enough to make comparisons difficult? If you take the 80+ group, they had overwhelmingly had both doses (84%) and only a small number (4.5%) were unvaccinated. Obviously numerically, most of the infections will be among the double vaccinated. For the under 18s the picture is reversed. And in any case, overwhelmingly the infections are among the under 29s.

But as has been said, increasingly infections are bound to be among the vaccinated as the number of unvaccinated people decreases and it becomes harder for the virus to 'locate' them.

Andrew Rawnsley has a good discussion on the issues surrounding vaccine passports.

The samples look big enough to me to be valid. I would assume that if the conclusion is correct that the younger age groups will tend towards the figures for the 40-80 group as more are vaccinated. There is a pretty large group in the under 40s who have not had the jabs, EG under 80% 45-50 age group,, approx 70% of 40/45s have had 2 doses.

The sample size for the over 80s is relatively small, so that may have some error in it. In any case, policy surely has to be informed by stats such as these, and not by the vague hope that something ( EG vaxx passports) will work. It could well be counterproductive for the govt to use lazy assumptions.

I read Rawnsley's piece some time ago.

It makes no case for the actual public health benefit of passports, which has to be based on facts about infection and transmission, and simply has to take into account the enormous step change involved in the relationship between the state and the individual.

If there is a solid scientific case for them, I haven't seen it, and I have looked. And there needs to be much more than just a scientific case. Without at the very least a test option on the passports, they amount to nothing more than intrusion and coercion.

[Bryn]

They have just left the threat hanging over us. And a threat is what it is. The parliamentary committee found no justification for them, and there is no demonstrable public health benefit.There hasn't even been a decent case made for them. And that is before we start discussing the myriad non healthcare issues around them.

Incidentally, unless I have misread this, table 4 here shows that the risk of getting infected in age groups 40 to 80 is greater ( per 100k population) for the vaccinated than the unvaxxed, which, if correct, is just one more reason for Vaccine passports to be binned, since the no- test version of the passports would likely be actually counter productive.

Table 4, last two columns.

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._-_week_36.pdf

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000zkzq deals with this. I am a little surprised that it has not already been mentioned re this paricular post.

[french frank]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000zkzq deals with this. I am a little surprised that it has not already been mentioned re this paricular post.

Deleted tweets, apologies, hidden caveats, shovelfuls of salt … Thank you for pointing that out, Bryn. I was struggling a bit for an answer .

[Bryn]

I am currently self-isolating. The person I was sitting next to at a gig last night has messaged me to advise that a PCR test they had on Tuesday has been reported as positive.

[teamsaint]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000zkzq deals with this. I am a little surprised that it has not already been mentioned re this paricular post.

Ifs, buts and maybes.

Its interesting to hear some sort of explanation, ( and I strongly suspect that there could be good counter arguments from those who know their mathematical stuff) but any way you slice it, the really important thing is that there are still very many vaccinated people becoming infected, who may well then transmit the virus, and the arguments , of all kinds, against vaccine passports are still rock solid.

Quite what lizards have got to do with this is anybody’s guess.

[french frank]

Just had a text from my practice to ask whether I want to accept a booster vaccine or not. Do I?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/21/i-declined-my-covid-booster-jab-others-should-too

I read this letter and … would refusing it make any difference?

[Serial_Apologist]

Just had a text from my practice to ask whether I want to accept a booster vaccine or not. Do I?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/21/i-declined-my-covid-booster-jab-others-should-too

I read this letter and … would refusing it make any difference?

There would be no guarantee that declining Jab 3 would offer it to someone less fortunate; and what's all this about a third jab being less protective than one or two? That's the first I've heard!

[french frank]

There would be no guarantee that declining Jab 3 would offer it to someone less fortunate; and what's all this about a third jab being less protective than one or two? That's the first I've heard!

I decided that declining it on an individual basis made no sense. It needs to be organised at a high level for mass refusals to make a difference. The world situation is very troubling, but this is less so than the millions of doses that stand to be wasted.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/19/gordon-brown-calls-for-urgent-action-to-avert-covid-vaccine-waste-disaster

Well done, Gordie!

[oddoneout]

I decided that declining it on an individual basis made no sense. It needs to be organised at a high level for mass refusals to make a difference. The world situation is very troubling, but this is less so than the millions of doses that stand to be wasted.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/19/gordon-brown-calls-for-urgent-action-to-avert-covid-vaccine-waste-disaster

Well done, Gordie!

Is there a suitable organisation with a proven track record of delivering vaccines to disadvantaged countries/people(rather than personal pockets)? If so perhaps accept the booster and make a donation as well.