Coronavirus

[antongould]

Does anyone else feel we need a No. 10 press conference giving us the latest views of Whitty and Vallance on the rising numbers of infections and hospital admissions and their views on how things are looking for Bozzy’s Freedom Day …… ????

[muzzer]

I’d prefer to hear from Tim Spector of the ZOE Covid Project, he’s profoundly more reassuring.

[teamsaint]

Does anyone else feel we need a No. 10 press conference giving us the latest views of Whitty and Vallance on the rising numbers of infections and hospital admissions and their views on how things are looking for Bozzy’s Freedom Day …… ????

Well the govt make their response to the numbers up as they go along, to suit their purposes, so probably not would be my answer.

Cases are mostly among the young and not very vulnerable. Deaths and serious illness are very low compared to current levels of flu and pneumonia . The current wave will shortly top out.
We really need to start deal with covid as an endemic illness, ( as HMG keep promising to do) and start the cleaning up operation on the vast numbers with serious conditions on waiting lists, as best we can.

As for international travel, and the utterly wasteful and completely undesireable focus on Digital/covid ID , don't get me started.....

(All in MVHO AG !!)

[french frank]

I'm not sure I understand this. Robert Jenrick has said that mask wearing will be a matter of 'personal responsibility' i.e. optional. But mask wearing has been understood primarily as a way to avoid spreading the infection, not protecting the mask wearer. So with the infection rate now back where it was last January, and deaths and hospitalisations beginning to rise (albeit still relatively low), the government says it's up to the individual to decide whether they want to risk spreading the virus or not?

As there is now clear evidence of people who have had two jabs being infected (and being very ill), and resulting deaths being largely among the very elderly, the government is doing what?

[teamsaint]

I'm not sure I understand this. Robert Jenrick has said that mask wearing will be a matter of 'personal responsibility' i.e. optional. But mask wearing has been understood primarily as a way to avoid spreading the infection, not protecting the mask wearer. So with the infection rate now back where it was last January, and deaths and hospitalisations beginning to rise (albeit still relatively low), the government says it's up to the individual to decide whether they want to risk spreading the virus or not?

As there is now clear evidence of people who have had two jabs being infected (and being very ill), and resulting deaths being largely among the very elderly, the government is doing what?

There doesn't seem to be much easily accessed information about who is getting very ill, or hospitalised,ie which age groups, vaccination status etc. Or have I missed it ?

Since the number of current covid deaths are at a very low level, compared to, for example current deaths from flu, we'd need to have really good evidence of an impending serious healthcare issue before more stringent measures are imposed, wouldn't we ? And even then, it surely time to impose such measures after some sort of cost/benefit analysis, including with regard to collateral health damage ?

[french frank]

There doesn't seem to be much easily accessed information about who is getting very ill, or hospitalised,ie which age groups, vaccination status etc. Or have I missed it ?

I don't know what the stats are, but Andrew Marr (who became infected after a second dose) interviewed Sir Peter Horby, who confirmed that illness could be 'severe' and that people he knew had been close to hospitalisation. So the fact that more people (than previously) getting infected have been double vaccinated is certainly a reflection on the percentage already vaccinated. But people can get very ill.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57640550

It was somewhere else I read about deaths, but the only source I can find for the moment is https://fortune.com/2021/07/02/fully...d-astrazeneca/

This is the FullFact conclusion Whereas it stresses that the deaths have been few, it does say: "Of the 117 deaths [caused by the Delta variant that have occurred since 1 February], 3 involved people whose vaccine status was unknown, 70 were people who had received at least one dose of the vaccine (61% of the 114 known cases), and 44 were people who had not been vaccinated (39%). Fifty of the deaths (44%) were people who had received both doses."

Before simply declaring that it's up to individuals to decide what restrictions they will keep voluntarily (using public transport??), it would be good if they were given the facts, wouldn't it?

[Petrushka]

I don't know what the stats are, but Andrew Marr (who became infected after a second dose) interviewed Sir Peter Horby, who confirmed that illness could be 'severe' and that people he knew had been close to hospitalisation. So the fact that more people (than previously) getting infected have been double vaccinated is certainly a reflection on the percentage already vaccinated. But people can get very ill.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57640550

It was somewhere else I read about deaths, but the only source I can find for the moment is https://fortune.com/2021/07/02/fully...d-astrazeneca/

This is the FullFact conclusion Whereas it stresses that the deaths have been few, it does say: "Of the 117 deaths [caused by the Delta variant that have occurred since 1 February], 3 involved people whose vaccine status was unknown, 70 were people who had received at least one dose of the vaccine (61% of the 114 known cases), and 44 were people who had not been vaccinated (39%). Fifty of the deaths (44%) were people who had received both doses."

Before simply declaring that it's up to individuals to decide what restrictions they will keep voluntarily (using public transport??), it would be good if they were given the facts, wouldn't it?

The Spiegelhalter/Masters Guardian article referred to in your Full Fact link is well worth reading and is rather reassuring in respect of deaths of those vaccinated.

I'm a long way from being a cheerleader for the Johnson and his henchmen/women but there has to come a point where we must accept that Covid is endemic and return to 'normal' life. I'm not totally convinced that July 19 is the right time but then the idiot Johnson has made himself a hostage to fortune regarding this date. It would make better sense to ensure that we have as near full vaccination as possible first.

As for mask wearing I intend to wear one when shopping indoors during the winter months no matter what the guidance.

[oddoneout]

The Spiegelhalter/Masters Guardian article referred to in your Full Fact link is well worth reading and is rather reassuring in respect of deaths of those vaccinated.

I'm a long way from being a cheerleader for the Johnson and his henchmen/women but there has to come a point where we must accept that Covid is endemic and return to 'normal' life. I'm not totally convinced that July 19 is the right time but then the idiot Johnson has made himself a hostage to fortune regarding this date. It would make better sense to ensure that we have as near full vaccination as possible first.

As for mask wearing I intend to wear one when shopping indoors during the winter months no matter what the guidance.

While I agree that a return to something approaching normal life(although I hope bits of it might be better than the previous normal) and learning to live with the virus are the way to go, it needs in my view to be in conjunction with an intelligent and properly informed(ie by facts not political favours) government and a health service that is reasonably able to cope. Unfortunately the NHS was struggling to cope before covid hit and the difficulties of coping not just with that emergency but also the ever more critical staffing difficulties caused by the impossible mix of covid staff illness(and death), Home Office activities plus Brexit, and people leaving having had enough, has resulted in a service that would have struggled with a "normal" winter, let alone the covid additions and the backlog of cancelled/postponed referrals and operations. As for intelligent etc government...
What happens here in the next few months will be of interest and use to other countries, but in terms of living through the experiment I am not looking forward to it at all, either in general terms nor personal (mental and physical health issues) and I fear for what will happen in the process of "muddling through" which seems to be as close to a strategy as this administration ever gets. And that's without the ongoing fallout from the B self-harm exercise, and the rushing through of dubious legislation under cover of the pandemic.

[french frank]

What happens here in the next few months will be of interest and use to other countries, but in terms of living through the experiment I am not looking forward to it at all, either in general terms nor personal (mental and physical health issues) and I fear for what will happen in the process of "muddling through" which seems to be as close to a strategy as this administration ever gets. And that's without the ongoing fallout from the B self-harm exercise, and the rushing through of dubious legislation under cover of the pandemic.

My feeling too. There has been an odd flare-up in the NE again with hospitalisations rising. With (at least) two ministers including the Secy of State for Business Health saying they will be casting off their masks at the earliest opportunity, I don't rate the chances of the general public thinking very differently. At least one expert described the return to 'normal' as being like 'building variant factories'.

[DracoM]

Well, as I live in an area much frequented by ALL NATIONALITIES OF walkers, non-stop bikers/cyclists, tourists etc, I can tell you that I shall go on masking for some time to come.
And hope that many of my fellows here will too. AND IN SHOPS / CAFES TOO.

[Cockney Sparrow]

But now I'm thinking I need to move from the disposable masks to the more effective masks (FP3 is it ? - need to do some research) to protect myself. As it seems we are moving away from the liberated non-mask wearers protecting others (and more particularly, me).

I'll need to strike a balance, I suppose - I presume I won't need some of the higher tech versions seen in use in ICU as I won't be going to nightclubs (nor, for the moment, opera houses and concert halls).

[Bryn]

My feeling too. There has been an odd flare-up in the NE again with hospitalisations rising. With (at least) two ministers including the Secy of State for Business Health saying they will be casting off their masks at the earliest opportunity, I don't rate the chances of the general public thinking very differently. At least one expert described the return to 'normal' as being like 'building variant factories'.

That one expert hit the nail firmly on the head, I feel. I will be continuing to put up with the inconveniences of protective measures against the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

[french frank]

That one expert hit the nail firmly on the head, I feel. I will be continuing to put up with the inconveniences of protective measures against the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Just read the first paragraph from a Times story:

"Already, the Leave-Remain divide is apparent in how people see masks. When YouGov asked people a week ago if they would carry on wearing masks once they are no longer compulsory, 59 per cent of Remainers said they would, against only 27 per cent saying they would not. Among Leavers, the split was reversed; 46 per cent said they would ditch …" (sorry, couldn't read the rest).

But where an essential divide comes (and is one side right and the other wrong?) is whether you think wearing a mask is a protection (for yourself) or whether you think it is a duty (towards others)?

Studies have found that wearing a mask significantly reduces the risk of transmission of COVID-19. There are two main reasons to wear a mask: masks do offer some protection for the mask wearer, but the main reason to wear a mask is that they protect others from catching an infection or virus from the person wearing the mask. [NB UK = University of Kentucky]

[vinteuil]

[NB UK = University of Kentucky]

... abbreviations - dontcha love 'em

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[french frank]

... abbreviations - dontcha love 'em

.

Just wanted to clarify The .edu showed it was a US university, but when I checked on the link, I thought the prominent UK might at first sight have been misleading. The advice, though, is no different from what we had already been told.