Coronavirus

[LeMartinPecheur]

Be very careful - correlation is not causation.

The article contrasts the death rates in South Korea and Japan with those in the USA and the UK but I suggest the most significant factor is that South Korea and Japan dealt with Covid-19 much more systematically and effectively from an early stage, in stark contrast to how the pandemic was managed in the USA and UK.

As far as I know, all the research shows that age remains by far the most significant risk factor. (Coincidentally, being a man doesn't exactly help.)

Fair point johnb, but I've thought the WHO would have been aware of it. Presumably the conclusive correlation would be chances of dying/ surviving once someone has caught the virus/ been hospitalised, or similar?

[Serial_Apologist]

This does tend to reinforce the view that the dominating factor in hospitalisation and death is age, and actually ethnicity and other "obvious" factors have relatively little impact.

Isn't the jury still out on whether or not ethnic groups other than Caucasian are physiologically more at risk of catching and transferring Covid-19 and its of-shoots? The suggestion that people massed into cramped domestic situations or conditions at work were more likely to be non-white seems to have been open to question in view of the large percentage of non-white doctors, surgeons and NHS support staff in high income brackets in the UK succumbing.

[french frank]

It is also ironic that the EU, having spent most of last year lecturing the rest of the world on the dangers of vaccine nationalism should be the first to make use of vaccine nationalism to prevent supplies to another country.

It's not clear from today's Guardian that the EU can be held responsible:

"The EU has approved about 150 requests for the export of vaccines since it established its authorisation mechanism, with only Italy so far having rejected such a request".

[LHC]

It's not clear from today's Guardian that the EU can be held responsible:

"The EU has approved about 150 requests for the export of vaccines since it established its authorisation mechanism, with only Italy so far having rejected such a request".

As the article states, Italy sought the Commission’s agreement before impounding these vaccines. Italy may have been the instigator in this case, but it has the backing of the EU. The mechanism for blocking vaccines was also introduced by the EU rather than by individual member states.

France’s Health Minister, Olivier Veran, has suggested that France will follow suit and will also block vaccine exports.

Still it is good to see that some in the EU recognise the potential implications of this move.

Bernd Lange, the German MEP who chairs the European parliament’s trade committee said the move was a “mistake” that others would now emulate.

He tweeted: “Pandora’s box opened. Mistake. Carte blanche for imitators. Could have fatal consequences, e.g. on supply chains. Prelude to global battle over Covid-19 vaccines? Escalation inevitable”.

[oddoneout]

Is there an issue in the UK with illegal immigrants, who may not be on the NHS radar? I don't want a witch hunt against such people, but they might cause problems in some parts if they contract the virus.
A "no questions asked" policy might be helpful for them. Maybe it's not a problem?

Yes is the short answer to that, and the authorities are aware. Unfortunately, given Home Office activities in recent years, it is rather doubtful how successful any initiatives are, or would be.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/08/undocumented-uk-migrants-to-be-offered-covid-vaccine-without-any-checks

https://edm.parliament.uk/early-day-motion/58054/undocumented-migrants-and-covid19-vaccination

For all the fine talk, as this points out

The government is also briefing that data sharing between the NHS and Home Office is limited — which is not the same thing as a guarantee that no information gathered as part of the vaccination drive can later be accessed for enforcement purposes.

https://www.freemovement.org.uk/unau...ment-confirms/ there is no guarantee that accessing the vaccine won't come back to bite an individual.
If even those who are legal, but struggling with the system (as seen in so many press articles) are unwilling to engage what chance the others?

[Frances_iom]

There is some worrying news from the IoM that has entered a third lockdown but this time driven by infection over half term of school children - apparently the Kent variant is the dominant strain

http://www.iomtoday.co.im/article.cfm?id=60889&headline=Children%20driving%20spread%20of%20virus&sectionIs=NEWS&searchyear=2021

will be interesting days next week

[Anastasius]

Italy has the same problems with vaccine acceptance as France and Germany, and has only used 20% of the AZ vaccines it has been provided with thus far. It still has over 400,000 unused AZ vaccines so this embargo on exports to Australia is a purely political act that has no relation with vaccine shortages.

In the longer term, this makes it likely that pharma companies will now be reluctant to invest in manufacturing facilities in Italy. It could also have a dangerous knock on effect to supply chains for vaccine ingredients if other countries decide to retaliate, or withhold vital supplies.

It is also ironic that the EU, having spent most of last year lecturing the rest of the world on the dangers of vaccine nationalism should be the first to make use of vaccine nationalism to prevent supplies to another country.

Was it ever thus. Compare and contrast the willingness (by and large) if the world's scientific community to share results and Covid data...working as a global team to the splits/schisms/petty jealousies/hidden agendas etc of politicians around the world.

[Serial_Apologist]

Was it ever thus. Compare and contrast the willingness (by and large) if the world's scientific community to share results and Covid data...working as a global team to the splits/schisms/petty jealousies/hidden agendas etc of politicians around the world.

As an incidental aside, such trans-national collaboration in the scientific world took place across the Iron Curtain between eastern and western scientists on informal bases some years before the fall of Communism in E Europe. This sometimes happened on tours across the boundaries by visiting foreign jazz bands, in which some of the musicians just happened to be active qualified scientists working in for example biological [sic] and medical research. One such was our Oxford-based George Haslam. Goodness knows how they got away with it - just think of the security implications!!!

I only cite this as an example of what I hope and believe will provide future historians with plenty of material to vindicate the role scientific principles have played and are playing in establishing vital values to carry an ever-increasingly sceptical public regarding religious claims to veracity forward to a better more secure world.

[Anastasius]

.....
Is there an issue in the UK with illegal immigrants, who may not be on the NHS radar? I don't want a witch hunt against such people, but they might cause problems in some parts if they contract the virus.
A "no questions asked" policy might be helpful for them. Maybe it's not a problem?

Not a problem ? It's a massive problem. Basically you have a pool within which Covid can mutate to its hearts content. I wish that everyone would be vaccinated (unless medically unsuited). But leaving aside actually convincing the illegal migrants that they won't be put on the next plane home (although since they usually carry no ID proving which country they came from is just a tad difficult). It's that same lack of ID that makes putting in place a scheme to manage their vaccinations nigh on impossible.

[french frank]

Interesting: my GP practice has just rung to offer me my 2nd injection on Saturday - after 9 weeks, rather than the 12 weeks which they originally said. Not a cancellation this time as she said she could offer me any time between 9am and 1pm. "Not first thing as I'll have to walk there - say 10.30?" "Let me see - I can offer you 10.28?" Done

[cloughie]

Interesting: my GP practice has just rung to offer me my 2nd injection on Saturday - after 9 weeks, rather than the 12 weeks which they originally said. Not a cancellation this time as she said she could offer me any time between 9am and 1pm. "Not first thing as I'll have to walk there - say 10.30?" "Let me see - I can offer you 10.28?" Done

You’ll have to catch BaL on Sounds!

[Katzelmacher]

I am puzzled as to why two vaccines are being deployed in Britain and I suspect the A-Z one has been politically contrived so that le bouffon blond can boast about ‘numbers’.

I’m in two minds about accepting the A-Z if it is offered. Frankly, I’d feel a lot safer with the Pfizer.

[french frank]

I am puzzled as to why two vaccines are being deployed in Britain

Speeding up the process, surely?

[Bryn]

Speeding up the process, surely?

And economics. The AZ is a fifth of the price of the PB. I hate to find something good to say about this government but the decision to order and use more than one of the vaccines then under development was a wise one. The efficacy of both has been found to be broadly similar, in practice, despite lower figures for the AZ in earlier 'laboratory' evaluations.

[Simon B]

There's every reason to believe that if there were five approved vaccines with availability, working supply chains and reasonable cost we'd be deploying all five. That, roughly speaking, is the plan isn't it? Fair-mindedness requires acknowledging that this is an area where an entrepreneurial calculated-risk-taking approach appears to have paid off. Ultimately the vaccs are a commercially developed and manufactured product so it is also prudent to have leverage against manufacturers in the form of contracts with their competitors. The govt (or someone in the shadows) has been pragmatic and done well with this one. That makes a change.