Coronavirus

[oddoneout]

Without further comment, I find the combination of these two reports worrying:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/human-challenge-covid-trial-uk-vaccine-go-ahead-world-first/

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...box=1613521668

I read about MIS-C a while ago and found it worrying, and this https://www.thelancet.com/journals/e...271-6/fulltext suggests that it has been known about for some time. The extreme and disastrous inflammatory response does seem to be a feature of Covid-19 for some patients across all ages, but to me this does suggest that the prevailing view of children's risk from infection might merit some re-evaluation.

[LHC]

I know that correlation does not equal causation, but...

[french frank]

I know that correlation does not equal causation, but...

… definitely something for the boffins to follow up. Perhaps improvements in air pollution?

[Anastasius]

What makes you think that? Have we progressed beyond last year when the UK didn't seem to notice problems in China and Italy until a rather late stage, even though some in those countries were warning us of major difficulties ahead.

Ah - of course - we are more alert now!

You are confusing the Government with scientists. Suggest that you dig a little bit deeper into the entire MO of clinical trials and challenge trials in particular before tarring research scientists with the same brush.

[Anastasius]

..... There is little if any difference in the rate of decline (i.e. the slope of the lines on the chart) between the over 85s (who will all have been vaccinated), ....

There have been some stories about spikes in care-home residents dying recently. Would those spikes be enough to affect the rate ?

[johnb]

There have been some stories about spikes in care-home residents dying recently. Would those spikes be enough to affect the rate ?

I really don't know.

The puzzling thing is that the Covid hospital admissions don't yet show any significant difference, in the rate of decrease, between those who haven't received the vaccine (the under 65s) and those age groups who have, at least in part, been vaccinated. Whereas there has been a noticeably greater percentage decrease in the deaths of the over 80s and 70-79s compared with those under 70 who haven't been vaccinated.

It is tempting to speculate on why this is, but speculation is all it can be at this stage, e.g.

It might be that the effect of the vaccines had not yet worked through the system and the of greater reduction in deaths of the over 70s might be due to something other than the vaccines, e.g. a change in treatment regime that is more beneficial to the elderly. Or it might be that, at this stage, older people are being admitted to hospital with less severe illnesses than previously. Or that the vaccine hasn't reduced hospital admissions at this stage but has had an effect on the deaths, etc, etc.

We just don't know.

(Incidentally, by 10th Jan, 37% of those 80 and over in England had received the first dose of the vaccine, this rose to 59% by the 17th Jan and 80% by the 24th Jan.)

[Dave2002]

Poor messaging - Affects the USA as well as the UK - Vaccine alarmism

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/briefing/ted-cruz-texas-water-iran-nuclear.html

This article suggests that we shouldn't worry too unduly about any putative problems with vaccines, since effectively right now none are known to be worse than catching the virus itself.

[johnb]

It is tempting to speculate on why this is, but speculation is all it can be at this stage, e.g.

(Incidentally, by 10th Jan, 37% of those 80 and over in England had received the first dose of the vaccine, this rose to 59% by the 17th Jan and 80% by the 24th Jan.)

I was thinking about this while waiting in the Bristol Eye Hospital.

It is said that it takes up to 3 weeks for first dose to be fully effective in the the over 80s and that hospital admissions occur some 2 or 3 weeks after infection, That would indicate that hospital admissions for the 7 days to 13/02/2021 would probably be the consequence of infections some 5 or 6 weeks earlier (w/e 02/01/21 and 09/01/21) when only 23% to 37% of the over 80s had received the first dose. So perhaps it is a little early to expect a significant effect on admissions and deaths.

[johnb]

Should anyone be interested I have uploaded the latest Deaths by Age Group and Hospital Admissions by Age Group charts to a box.net folder and will update them every day or so.

https://app.box.com/s/08ondsrssik49j4xq4lpw0ho5dlxh0ej

[Anastasius]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/b...n-nuclear.html

This article suggests that we shouldn't worry too unduly about any putative problems with vaccines, since effectively right now none are known to be worse than catching the virus itself.

Interesting article, Dave, and born out in my experience over here doing a straw poll with friends who have had the first dose. They are failing to even tell people about what they should/should not do post jab, how long to wait etc. The lack of clear communication is endemic from HMG.

[Anastasius]

So - AZ side-effects Day 6.

Still no appetite. A lot of food smells - hot fat, meat, fried prawns - will make me even more nauseous. Also very fatigued. Slept most of yesterday.

Pity I can't ask them to remove the vaccine. I'd find a way to get Pfizer. My wife's immune system goes into over-drive at the drop of a hat and she had Pfizer. I really expected her to be laid up in bed while her body sorted things out but she's bouncing about with nary a problem. Perhaps it's the nature of the vaccine.

[oddoneout]

Interesting article, Dave, and born out in my experience over here doing a straw poll with friends who have had the first dose. They are failing to even tell people about what they should/should not do post jab, how long to wait etc. The lack of clear communication is endemic from HMG.

The leaflet that is provided (possibly) and to which I provided a link some time ago, is very wordy and buries the necessary information quite effectively. HMG will consider that having provided a leaflet its duty is done, without any consideration of what, if any, salient points someone reading it might have absorbed - or even whether it is read in the first place.
I had my call-up letter this week(which included said "guide for older adults"), and even that doesn't make the situation clear, it just says "You need two doses of the vaccine to get the best protection..."

[Dave2002]

So - AZ side-effects Day 6.
Still no appetite. A lot of food smells - hot fat

AZ - no strong side effects here. No swelling or pain in the arm. A few days ago seemed more tired than usual, but that could happen anyway.
Now on AZ+10.

I can't honestly say so far I've noticed much - though perhaps a touch of breathlessness about 4-5 days ago. Possible hot feelings at night - but could have been due to warm cosy blankets.

I still like food. Possible tingling feeling in teeth and gums - slight pain perhaps.

It's very hard to ascribe any odd symptoms to the post vaccination effects. Major exercise in the last week has simply been trying to stay warm, though now the weather has changed a bit that is getting easier. We even have some sun these days.

[LHC]

My partner had the Pfizer vaccine on Thursday. No side effects apparent as yet. However, after receiving the jab everyone was required to sit in the hall for 15 minutes to check that no one had an allergic reaction or any other adverse effects. I overheard one of the volunteers say that they didn’t have to do this when they were using the AZ vaccine, and that people could leave immediately, so those days were much faster to run.

[Petrushka]

So - AZ side-effects Day 6.

Still no appetite. A lot of food smells - hot fat, meat, fried prawns - will make me even more nauseous. Also very fatigued. Slept most of yesterday.

Pity I can't ask them to remove the vaccine. I'd find a way to get Pfizer. My wife's immune system goes into over-drive at the drop of a hat and she had Pfizer. I really expected her to be laid up in bed while her body sorted things out but she's bouncing about with nary a problem. Perhaps it's the nature of the vaccine.

It's exactly a week since I had the AZ vaccine and I still have a loss of appetite. The flu-like symptoms lasted until Tuesday but thereafter I felt very tired and found myself sleeping during the day and feeling a lack of motivation to do anything at all. One week later most of it has all disappeared with the pain in my injected arm the last to go.

I've never in my life experienced side effects from any medication taken. According to local Facebook accounts these side effects have been very common indeed. Friends and relatives who had the Pfizer report no side effects at all. Reports of the AZ vaccine not being suitable for the over 65's and public reluctance to have it in France and Germany are leaving me slightly concerned that there's something we're not being told. On the other hand, the World Health Organisation have approved its use in all adults.