Coronavirus

[teamsaint]

Yes, I tried "coronavirus PRH" "politics PRH" and "right-wing PRH". Decided it must be Penguin Random House given ts's publishing background.

Incidentally, on the question of vaccine hesitancy among health workers, I thought this BBC piece was interesting. It confirms what one might suspect - that people with a wide range of expertise/qualifications can also hold a wide range of views. Doctors are preaching the risks of (any) vaccination, scientists are climate emergency sceptics, economists have divergent views on economic policy. It seems to me that sceptics emerge mainly on the (extreme) right - viz Mr Steve Baker's new "Covid Research Group" - another of his libertarian 'give us back control' running hares.

Yes, sorry, It is Penguin. Apologies for the jargon.

As they said recently after offering a modest £2 Bn for Simon and Schuster....." We're not as big as people think we are....." !!
Whereas, in fact, they are.

[teamsaint]

I think the current crisis has brought to the fore a difficulty which has always existed. Those with expertise, knowledge and experience may reach a different conclusion about any given issue from the mainstream or accepted/desirable view. They then have to decide what to do about or with that different view, and I think that can be a very hard decision. Pushing against the establishment stance may in medical settings result in important benefits for patients, but at the other end of the spectrum it can result in such people going rogue and causing harm through their misuse of their medical status , as covered in the Panorama programme last night about the 'Ask the Experts' (I think that was the title)video that was circulating online https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000scy8 There is also a kind of halfway situation where medical professionals may advocate for a line of action which they themselves would not or might not choose for themselves or about which they have some doubt, but not enough cause to advise against.

I suspect that many doctors who don't tend to use vaccinations , at least on some occasions, may have an understanding of herd immunity , which they are prepared to use. This understanding may of course not be understood by some sections of the population.

[french frank]

Pushing against the establishment stance may in medical settings result in important benefits for patients, but at the other end of the spectrum it can result in such people going rogue and causing harm through their misuse of their medical status , as covered in the Panorama programme last night about the 'Ask the Experts' (I think that was the title)video that was circulating online https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000scy8

Absolutely right, and not everyone is equipped to figure out what the best course is. They may rely on intuition, but even that can lead them astray.

Being (just temporarily, fortunately) in the necessity of taking several doses of paracetamol daily, I was interested to read this 'impeccably' sourced article showing that it is ineffective as a painkiller. But, since as a sufferer, I feel it makes no real difference to me whether the pain reduction is a placebo effect or a genuine chemical one, I shall with my own doctor's blessing continue to take it.

[Bryn]

Absolutely right, and not everyone is equipped to figure out what the best course is. They may rely on intuition, but even that can lead them astray.

Being (just temporarily, fortunately) in the necessity of taking several doses of paracetamol daily, I was interested to read this 'impeccably' sourced article showing that it is ineffective as a painkiller. But, since as a sufferer, I feel it makes no real difference to me whether the pain reduction is a placebo effect or a genuine chemical one, I shall with my own doctor's blessing continue to take it.

Here's the author: https://www.whatisseries.co.uk/andrew-moore/

For my part, I have avoided paracetamol since a friend tried to use it, along with alcohol, to commit suicide many decades ago. She just about survived but with long-term liver damage. The only exception I have made was when I was prescribed Codeine and Paracetamol tablets after breaking the top of my left femur and getting a hip replacement as a result.

[french frank]

Here's the author: https://www.whatisseries.co.uk/andrew-moore/

Yep, I checked his credentials. I'm sure he's sincere, not a quack. But he takes a different medical view from others in the mainstream (which is where the Covid/vaccination/lockdown arguments lie). Like a good moderate, I take only what I need, as few as I can get by with, and note the reservations of some research.

[oddoneout]

Here's the author: https://www.whatisseries.co.uk/andrew-moore/

For my part, I have avoided paracetamol since a friend tried to use it, along with alcohol, to commit suicide many decades ago. She just about survived but with long-term liver damage. The only exception I have made was when I was prescribed Codeine and Paracetamol tablets after breaking the top of my left femur and getting a hip replacement as a result.

Indeed, and it irritates me that the word 'safe' is so often used alongside paracetamol, whereas aspirin in particular and to a lesser extent ibuprofen are presented as unsafe due to the gastric bleeding risk from prolonged use. Bad as that is I think it is less of a problem for long term health prospects than screwing up the liver. I never found paracetamol effective for the kind of pain I have and it exacerbates a mild liver condition I now have, so the question doesn't arise. Fingers crossed I don't have need of something like co-codamol!

[Bryn]

Without further comment, I find the combination of these two reports worrying:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/human-challenge-covid-trial-uk-vaccine-go-ahead-world-first/

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/covid-linked-syndrome-in-children-is-growing-and-cases-are-more-severe/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=owned_echobox_f&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1613521668

[Dave2002]

Without further comment, I find the combination of these two reports worrying:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/human-challenge-covid-trial-uk-vaccine-go-ahead-world-first/

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...box=1613521668

The Seattle Times report is really sad - and worrying.

Sadly I suppose we have to look at overall statistics. It may still be the case that there is only relatively small proportion of young people who get seriously ill - though the newspaper report does suggest that there are changes such that now more of them are hospitalised, and perhaps a higher proportion do not recover well or at all. From the public health point of view a trial or research programme might still be the best option - but the participants need to be aware of the potential dangers - even if only putative.

[Bryn]

The Seattle Times report is really sad - and worrying.

Sadly I suppose we have to look at overall statistics. It may still be the case that there is only relatively small proportion of young people who get seriously ill - though the newspaper report does suggest that there are changes such that now more of them are hospitalised, and perhaps a higher proportion do not recover well or at all. From the public health point of view a trial or research programme might still be the best option - but the participants need to be aware of the potential dangers - even if only putative.

At least we can be pretty sure that those running the human challenge trial will be well aware of the problems reported in the Seattle Times item.

[johnb]

I can't imagine many parents will be willing to sign up for their own child to be part of the trial. It's one thing to be aware that the risks are very low and to be broadly supportive of such a trial but it's quite a different kettle of fish agreeing for your own son or daughter to participate.

[Bryn]

I can't imagine many parents will be willing to sign up for their own child to be part of the trial. It's one thing to be aware that the risks are very low and to be broadly supportive of such a trial but it's quite a different kettle of fish agreeing for your own son or daughter to participate.

Parents? The trial is seeking volunteers in the 18-30-year-old range. However, the problems reported in the Seattle Times would be likely to have some bearing on that age-group too, I would think.

[Dave2002]

At least we can be pretty sure that those running the human challenge trial will be well aware of the problems reported in the Seattle Times item.

What makes you think that? Have we progressed beyond last year when the UK didn't seem to notice problems in China and Italy until a rather late stage, even though some in those countries were warning us of major difficulties ahead.

Ah - of course - we are more alert now!

[Bryn]

What makes you think that? Have we progressed beyond last year when the UK didn't seem to notice problems in China and Italy until a rather late stage, even though some in those countries were warning us of major difficulties ahead.

Ah - of course - we are more alert now!

Apart from anything else, the redress those running the trial would be open to if things go wrong. You can bet your bottom dollar that even if they had not already taken it into consideration, the will have received plenty of alerts to the dangers by now. We're not dealing with scientifically and medically ignorant PPE* graduates here.

* Philosophy, Politics & Economics, not Personal Protection Equipment.

[johnb]

There is an article in today's Guardian (front page, below the fold) "Early data suggests UK vaccination is working". The article isn't prominently displayed on The Guardian website but this is the link: https://www.theguardian.com/society/...s-fall-england

Towards the end of the article some scientists are quoted as being much more cautious about over interpreting the figures.

There are two things that spring to mind:

Firstly. the Guardian takes the deaths that occurred on a single day, 11/02/2021, and compares them with the deaths on 24/01/2021, a single day, for each age group. But the deaths on both days will be subject to the daily variations that always occur. IMO this is lazy journalism (not that unusual for The Guardian).

If you use the 7 day averages the difference between the 20-64 and the older age groups is lower, in fact the difference between the 20-64s and over 80s is reduced from 15% to 8%

		Guardian	7 day avg
		single day
20-64		-47%		-48%
65-79		-51%		-50%
over 80		-62%		-56%

Secondly, the Covid vaccinations don't seem to show in the latest hospital admission figures for England. There is little if any difference in the rate of decline (i.e. the slope of the lines on the chart) between the over 85s (who will all have been vaccinated), the 64-85 age group (some will have been vaccinated) and those under 65 without any vaccination.

A chart using the same data that The Guardian uses but based on the 7 day average (IMO more representative than The Guardian chart and data)


Hospital Admissions

[johnb]

Parents? The trial is seeking volunteers in the 18-30-year-old range. However, the problems reported in the Seattle Times would be likely to have some bearing on that age-group too, I would think.

Apologies - I jumped to the wrong conclusions.