Coronavirus

[muzzer]

This seemed to be a key para:



Not much one can do about conspiracy theories that "this is a scheme by the government to tag you, or poison you, or keep tabs on you". The readiness of some to be brainwashed into believing the irrational has been greatly in evidence elsewhere.

Agreed. The really dangerous part of all of this madness, by which I mean the last 5 years in this country and the US for that matter faod, is the failure of individuals to see the bigger picture and act, or tweet, accordingly. There is an obsession with irrelevant and inconsequential minor details, as if they have some chaos theory effect on the bigger picture.

“Vaccination hesitancy” is one such example. The average person is in no position whatsoever to make a judgment about the efficacy or otherwise of a vaccine. Faced with such a lack of agency their tiny mind gropes for something they can control or exhibit and comes up with the mediaeval ignorance that the state is trying to poison them.

See also, Brexit and Trump. Lunacy fuelled by ignorance, caused by a lack of education and in many cases pop culture and religion. Government by Twitter, all must have prizes, your opinion is as valid as mine. News flash, it’s not. But now we have to spend decades, assuming our genes or germs permit, enduring the consequences. We have failed the weakest members of society, seduced by Murdoch and shiny things. Teach history, ethics, and physics to the youngest.

Rant over. Kohli got a duck. Good morning and have a great day. I have a box set of French Piano Concertos on the way, am greatly looking forward.

[Nick Armstrong]

Agreed. The really dangerous part of all of this madness, by which I mean the last 5 years in this country and the US for that matter faod, is the failure of individuals to see the bigger picture and act, or tweet, accordingly. There is an obsession with irrelevant and inconsequential minor details, as if they have some chaos theory effect on the bigger picture.

“Vaccination hesitancy” is one such example. The average person is in no position whatsoever to make a judgment about the efficacy or otherwise of a vaccine. Faced with such a lack of agency their tiny mind gropes for something they can control or exhibit and comes up with the mediaeval ignorance that the state is trying to poison them.

See also, Brexit and Trump. Lunacy fuelled by ignorance, caused by a lack of education and in many cases pop culture and religion. Government by Twitter, all must have prizes, your opinion is as valid as mine. News flash, it’s not. But now we have to spend decades, assuming our genes or germs permit, enduring the consequences. We have failed the weakest members of society, seduced by Murdoch and shiny things. Teach history, ethics, and physics to the youngest.

Rant over. Kohli got a duck. Good morning and have a great day. I have a box set of French Piano Concertos on the way, am greatly looking forward.

Great post

[vinteuil]

Teach history, ethics, and physics to the youngest.

.

... to which I would add : statistics and probability.

(Great post)

.

[Frances_iom]

... to which I would add : statistics and probability....

you can't get above infant school physics without these - but yes they are essential for any understanding of events - the BBC's "More or less" should be a compulsory weekly lesson for those aged 11+ (or even younger if Maths was properly taught in schools)

[oddoneout]

Teach history, ethics, and physics to the youngest.

Rant over. Kohli got a duck. Good morning and have a great day. I have a box set of French Piano Concertos on the way, am greatly looking forward.

That teaching won't necessarily help so long as school education is seen as a way of getting 'qualifications' and so presents a one dimensional approach to any topic, which may be further entrenched by a teacher's personal opinions. I can remember getting into a heated debate with my English teacher about one of the 'interpretations' we were supposed to accept about Macbeth, which was the O level set work. She didn't dismiss my argument( much later I found she inclined to the same view), but did say that if I pursued it in the exam I would be marked down - in other words left the decision to me. Fast forward 40 years to being a High School governor looking at some GCSE work to do with use of animals for things like drug testing. All the pupils had followed the accepted and acceptable view, except for one lad who had produced a thoughtful, articulate and well researched essay putting forward a rather more nuanced view that was motivated in large part by his family's medical circumstances. The comments and marking from the teacher on the work dismayed me, because they completely dismissed his argument and views above and beyond the "adverse effect on exam grade" argument. Not the way to encourage objective assessments of important questions of the day.
On a less serious note my ignorance of cricket matters led to a different interpretation of "Kohli got a duck" - along the lines of " is Kohli a cat or a dog , and will the casualty be Sunday lunch?"

[french frank]

There was a big report last year that suggested that almost every government on earth had moved in an authoritarian direction post covid. You may not worry about it, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.

The alternative to moving in that direction in this country, at least (and in the circumstances of the spread of the coronavirus), is to keep a looser rein on people's activities and leave it to their own common sense to absorb the information and expert (good) advice that is given out. At which point you cannot then blame government for such excess deaths, employment burnout in the healthcare systems and alternative hardships should they follow as a result of public miscalculations. Which all seems like a return to the survival of the fittest philosophy.

Data collection requires data input (in many cases the question 'Why do we need this information?' is asked and answered). There is some data I would be highly reluctant to give, some that I might challenge the need for, some I might be quite relaxed about. That would vary, I suppose, from person to person. But at the moment matters would need to go a good deal further before I began to be suspicious that there was some sinister underlying reason for gaining information about me.

Alternatively, that doesn't answer your suspicions/fears of an extension in general authoritarianism, in which case could you be more precise about how that has been affecting us so far in the UK (not much we can do about other countries)?

[johnb]

We have all been wondering how and when the vaccinations will impact on cases and deaths. Someone (whose name I forget) posited that the first effect would be on the number of deaths.

This is a chart from today's NHS England Hospital data. It shows the percentage of the number of deaths in relation to the January peak, for each age group. One has to be careful not to read into it than is warranted but the chart might show the vaccines (as distinct from the lockdown) beginning to have some effect on the number of deaths. A clearer picture will no doubt emerge in the next week or two.

The over 80s, who were first in line for the vaccine, show the greatest decline followed by the 60-79s, whereas the 0-59 age group who have not had the vaccine show the least decline.

[french frank]

One has to be careful not to read into it than is warranted but the chart might show the vaccines (as distinct from the lockdown) beginning to have some effect on the number of deaths.

In terms of the deaths, logic might favour the vaccine as lessening the severity of the infections, since I'm less sure that the lockdown has benefited older people as they seem to have been more risk averse about going out anyway.

I have been treating Bristol as a 'sample' which may not be statistically valid. But in spite of suggestions about 'new variants' the date of the spike in the first week of January and into the second do tend to point to the effect of Christmas and New Year meetings. Looking at the government interactive map, the spread of dark red (7-day new infections) over the country was more than ominous, but that has now receded considerably and is limited to 'isolated' smaller pockets, even just single MSOAs. Some very badly affected MSOAs seem to have recovered remarkably quickly. Of course, there are all sorts of factors to take into consideration (most of which I wot not of) but it is hard not to see lockdown as having cut the rate of spread significantly.

[teamsaint]

The alternative to moving in that direction in this country, at least (and in the circumstances of the spread of the coronavirus), is to keep a looser rein on people's activities and leave it to their own common sense to absorb the information and expert (good) advice that is given out. At which point you cannot then blame government for such excess deaths, employment burnout in the healthcare systems and alternative hardships should they follow as a result of public miscalculations. Which all seems like a return to the survival of the fittest philosophy.

Data collection requires data input (in many cases the question 'Why do we need this information?' is asked and answered). There is some data I would be highly reluctant to give, some that I might challenge the need for, some I might be quite relaxed about. That would vary, I suppose, from person to person. But at the moment matters would need to go a good deal further before I began to be suspicious that there was some sinister underlying reason for gaining information about me.

Alternatively, that doesn't answer your suspicions/fears of an extension in general authoritarianism, in which case could you be more precise about how that has been affecting us so far in the UK (not much we can do about other countries)?

I’m not sure that there needs to be a clear alternative offered ( not that it is offered) between increased authoritarian control or a freedom to choose from information, or that it needs to be seen in the way that you suggest. We know that people have a tendency to break rules that, for example, don’t seem logical ( or to suit them) and the also have a tendency to follow guidance when it is in their interests, well founded, or clearly expressed. So although the present health situation may almost inevitably lead to some increased government interventions, these can and should ( IMO) be challenged to ensure that they are proportionate and temporary, and that the alternative of “good advice” that you cite is the first option wherever possible..

As regards data, I broadly agree with you,( I wasn’t as worried as some on this forum about the Dominic Cummings app as compared to the eventual NHS app ) although data collection, especially via smartphone, is certainly not always given with explicit consent, and again,because increased data collection via technology is clearly the direction of travel, all the more reason to ask questions at every turn.

As regards to increased general authoritarianism, well this has been all around us for a year. Our movements and activities have been controlled in unprecedented ways, ( with seemingly little mainstream political challenge) data collection ( tracking of movements) has significantly increased, and more is clearly on the horizon by way of vaccine passport developments.

The sort of thing that John Harris tends to write eloquently about.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/21/coronavirus-government-liberties-tories-police-powers-laws

Edit:Apologies, the first para didn’t come over very clearly....or as quite as clearly as I wanted.

[johnb]

In terms of the deaths, logic might favour the vaccine as lessening the severity of the infections, since I'm less sure that the lockdown has benefited older people as they seem to have been more risk averse about going out anyway.

I have been treating Bristol as a 'sample' which may not be statistically valid. But in spite of suggestions about 'new variants' the date of the spike in the first week of January and into the second do tend to point to the effect of Christmas and New Year meetings. Looking at the government interactive map, the spread of dark red (7-day new infections) over the country was more than ominous, but that has now receded considerably and is limited to 'isolated' smaller pockets, even just single MSOAs. Some very badly affected MSOAs seem to have recovered remarkably quickly. Of course, there are all sorts of factors to take into consideration (most of which I wot not of) but it is hard not to see lockdown as having cut the rate of spread significantly.

I agree with much of that.

Incidentally, if you (or anyone else) wants to "explore" the MSOA areas (tautology, I know) it might (???) be worth having a look at the UK Covid "report" thingy that I have been updating on a daily basis. It now includes MSOA maps of both cases/100k and the weekly percentage increase/decrease for England. One can select any of the past 4 weeks, any NHS region, and Local Authority, etc.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZDkxMTQwYTAtZGI2MS00MjI2LWJkYzEtNDQ3ZjM0ZDczZTE0IiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

A few screen grabs when zoomed into the South West NHS Region:

Yesterday's situation (7 days to 07/02/2021)


7 days to 17/01/2021


The rates of increase/decrease for the 7 days to 07/02/2021 compared with the previous 7 days (these bounce around a lot):


Apologies for flooding the thread with screen grabs.

[johnb]

I've updated the chart of NHS Hospital Deaths by age group, in #5009, with today's data. It shows the expected trend a little more clearly.

http://www.for3.org/forums/showthread.php?21399-Coronavirus&p=834150#post834150

[Anastasius]

No, I’m really not paranoid, and I resent the accusation. I think quite long and hard about these things, try to give the benefit of the doubt, and to understand that some things that I don’t like may have to happen . It seems to me absolutely self evident that government ( and not just ours) will have more control over peoples lives after this. There was a big report last year that suggested that almost every government on earth had moved in an authoritarian direction post covid. You may not worry about it, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.

Accusing people of paranoia without good basis ( and it has to be very good) is unacceptable.

Oh, and since you ask my perspective is just fine thanks, despite the madness that confronts us every day.

How will Govt have more control over people's lives after this ? Please can you explain the why and how. What has changed ?

You talk in a later post about There was a big report last year that suggested that almost every government on earth had moved in an authoritarian direction post covid. OK...so what has happened in the UK to be more authoritarian ? Lockdown ? Or the fact that we weren't all asked in a referendum if we wanted to lockdown or not?

And what is wrong with a vaccine passport ? You have a passport, I assume, to go into and out of the country? So what is the difference ?

[Anastasius]

..... The comments and marking from the teacher on the work dismayed me, because they completely dismissed his argument and views above and beyond the "adverse effect on exam grade" argument. Not the way to encourage objective assessments of important questions of the day.
....

Group-think is alive and well. Sadly.

[Anastasius]

This just in. Remember - you heard about it here first! The PCN's are quietly being told to stop offering/processing vaccinations to Cohort 5 unless one of their patients specifically asks them. They are being told to get ready to start on Cohort 6. Cohort 5's will be hived off to the larger hubs.

[Anastasius]

A few more thoughts.

1) Mix'n'match. Studies ongoing to determine whether the second jab can be a different vaccine to that of the first. Regardless of the science, the govt will state that "It is OK" to mix'n'match. Why? Logistics and the available supply. At the moment, hubs etc have no idea exactly how much and of what type they are getting each day/week. That might get better in the future. Assume it doesn't. So how are they going to manage those second jabs if the science says 'You should not mix the vaccines' ? Simple answer - they can't.

2) The vaccination centres are failing to remind people about the three week delay before assuming maximum efficacy and the need to maintain social-distancing etc. The majority of people are thick and stupid and a lot of them lack any sort of moral compass. Especially if any of the conversations heard by my wife while waiting in the 'recovery' area yesterday are to go by. These conversations focussed on the best way to get round the quarantine restrictions if/when they return from that holiday in Dubai.

And that is why a Health Passport is essential IMO. People will, and do, lie if it suits them. The Health Passport knocks that on the head. If someone does not wish to have a vaccination then that is their prerogative. What is not their prerogative is to lie, and bring back Covid from their seaside frolics.