Coronavirus

[johnb]

I'm not sure whether anyone views the Power Bi "reports" of cases by local authority that I have done but these are changes to the "reports"

I have been maintaining two versions:

Cases/100k & Deaths by Local Authority (disregarding the last 3, latterly 4, days as havng incomplete data)
Cases/100k, Increases/Decreases, Deaths (disregarding the last 5 days data 5 days as being incomplete)

I will not be updating the first report (Cases and Deaths).

I will however be maintaining the Cases/Increases/Deaths report. As the name implies this report has separate maps for Cases/100k, Percentage Increase/Decrease, No. of Deaths - by local authority. The cases should be reasonable complete, which is important when calculating the percentage week on week increases/decreases.

The fixed link is:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZDkxMTQwYTAtZGI2MS00MjI2LWJkYzEtNDQ3ZjM0ZDczZTE0IiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

This is a screen grab of the Case Increases/Decreases map, showing the floating "information pane".



Comments very welcome.

(The colour for 300%+ is wrong on the screen grab - since corrected. It relates to the Hebrides, though the case numbers is very low indeed for that region.)

[Dave2002]

The maps continue to be very interesting, and also potentially useful.

Thanks for making them.

[Bryn]

I'm not sure whether anyone views the Power Bi "reports" of cases by local authority that I have done but these are changes to the "reports"

Hope you don't mind. I have linked to them on my FB page.

[johnb]

No problem at all, Bryn.

I'm just glad that people find them useful.

[Bryn]

I do not wish to promote this. I would simply hope that its arguments be considered and quite possibly refuted. The delivery has a calm, if carefully edited, way about it and his credentials do seem more relevant to the problem that those of the members of 'S.A.G.E.'. Discuss:

Skip any introductory ad. featuring Farage as soon as you can.

[Dave2002]

Really interesting programme on BBC 2 right now - https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000pjr1

What we weren't really told was that some people had already estimated the total number of cases was over 100,000 before we were given "data" showing a gradually rising tracking of the number of cases. I recall not being too concerned until about the middle of March - March 16th - but other people had been thinking about this for weeks beforehand. Many people did not react even after the middle of March. Many people did not (and still do not ...) understand exponential growth, and many people did not understand the models.

I was aware of problems before the end of February, as concerts we wanted to go to were cancelled, but the scale of the problems were not brought out, and were played down and up until around the third week of March insufficient action was taken.

[french frank]

I do not wish to promote this. I would simply hope that its arguments be considered and quite possibly refuted. The delivery has a calm, is carefully edited, way about it and his credentials do seem more relevant to the problem that those of the members of 'S.A.G.E.'. Discuss:

I watched the first 10 minutes and I did find some of his statements odd - such as saying the pandemic is 'over'. It may have been reducing in places like, as he said, London; but I've been following johnb's local charts and in the area (MSOA) I live in it certainly isn't over: it's been increasing worryingly daily. More to the point, London may follow the pattern in New York where the virus was 'beaten' but is now creeping up again, and in America they're speaking of a 'third wave'.

Many 'sages' (as distinct from SAGE) are saying what he says about restrictions, but they don't spell out what should have been done. In Sweden restrictions are now being increased because cases are rising (ignoring the number of deaths there have already been):

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden/swedish-coronavirus-cases-rise-new-measures-welcomed-idUSKBN27X29W

[Bryn]

The other side of the coin:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-state-restrictions.html

(Sorry for hoops that must be jumped through to peruse it. Just reject the options you don't want.)

[french frank]

The other side of the coin:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-state-restrictions.html

(Sorry for hoops that must be jumped through to peruse it. Just reject the options you don't want.)

[johnb]

[QUOTE=french frank;816464but I've been following johnb's local charts and in the area (MSOA) I live in it certainly isn't over: it's been increasing worryingly daily. [/QUOTE]

In case anyone is wondering what ff is referring to, this is the Power Bi "report" at MSOA level for Bristol and surrounding local authorities:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMWM5NTljYjQtMWQ1OC00YzMzLWFlZmUtOTMwMmQzY2Q1OTJiIiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

I am too tired to enter the general discussion but will pick it up tomorrow.

[Anastasius]

Damn. The muppets at the call-centre have been double and even triple booking appointments and so mine has just been cancelled. No new date set. Just a tad annoyed.

So, ever the pro-active one, I contacted the centre directly and said that I was able to attend at short notice if they had any cancellations. Give 'em an easy way out and they'll bite your hand off !! So yesterday morning, appt for later that day and off I toddled. They had previously sent full details as to the protocol etc and what to expect. About 50% of what happened on the day actually followed that. Even allowing for the fact that I'd been emailed an old version !! So many stupid errors such as 'Do you have your Photo ID'? "Um. no, said one chap. No-one told me I had to bring it". He was right.

You are asked to download an app to (a) report any Covid symptoms should you develop them and (b) fill in for a week after you've had the injection what reactions you're having/how you feel. "You'll be notified on your phone when a new form is ready to be completed". So I waited today and nada. So I rang them and asked. "Oh, they only start coming down to you on Day 7". Well, why don't they put that on the text of the app? Why, since the centre knows this is missing, don't they tell you while you are there that this will happen? It really isn't rocket science. Maybe the Queen of Carthage set it up?

I won't bore you with it all.

But after all that I did get my first jab. But I'm 99.9999% convinced I have the placebo . One of the most common adverse reactions is redness at the injection site. They even give you a ruler to measure the size. I can't even see where the injection site was. Ergo placebo.

[teamsaint]

Se, ever the pro-active one, I contacted the centre directly and said that I was able to attend at short notice if they had any cancellations. Give 'em an easy way out and they'll bite your hand off !! So yesterday morning, appt for later that day and off I toddled. They had previously sent full details as to the protocol etc and what to expect. About 50% of what happened on the day actually followed that. Even allowing for the fact that I'd been emailed an old version !! So many stupid errors such as 'Do you have your Photo ID'? "Um. no, said one chap. No-one told me I had to bring it". He was right.

You are asked to download an app to (a) report any Covid symptoms should you develop them and (b) fill in for a week after you've had the injection what reactions you're having/how you feel. "You'll be notified on your phone when a new form is ready to be completed". So I waited today and nada. So I rang them and asked. "Oh, they only start coming down to you on Day 7". Well, why don't they put that on the text of the app? Why, since the centre knows this is missing, don't they tell you while you are there that this will happen? It really isn't rocket science. Maybe the Queen of Carthage set it up?

I won't bore you with it all.

But after all that I did get my first jab. But I'm 99.9999% convinced I have the placebo . One of the most common adverse reactions is redness at the injection site. They even give you a ruler to measure the size. I can't even see where the injection site was. Ergo placebo.

Sorry if this is a daft question, not knowing much about these things, but does the study control for people who are shielding, ( or avoiding almost all social contact) as I think you effectively are?
I guess there will be equal numbers in each group though.

Anyway, interesting post.

[Anastasius]

Sorry if this is a daft question, not knowing much about these things, but does the study control for people who are shielding, ( or avoiding almost all social contact) as I think you effectively are?
I guess there will be equal numbers in each group though.

Anyway, interesting post.

Not a daft question at all. They take anyone. It's down to the individual as to whether or not they wish to participate. I have no need to shield other than being over 70. No co-morbidities..in fact illness and tablet-free. I mainly avoid contact to protect my wife who does have a strange immune system.

Re selection..was somewhat bemused as to one of their screening activities such as height and weight. Shoes on, pockets and hands full of stuff. Not that important or relevant apparently other than feeding the computer that decides whether or not to give you the vaccine or a placebo. It is, after all, a Phase 3 trial and they are interested in the effectiveness of the vaccine across lots of different criteria....white/black/diabetic/age (25% of subjects for this study will be over 65)/etc.

I do have to confess to not really understanding how any vaccine producer can say that this or that is 95% effective since these are not 'challenge trials'. They take blood samples at the screening...that's to see if one already has antibodies for Covid (I don't get told) but not at any other time. All that they can say is that out of, say, 1000 people split 50:50. that of the placebo group x% got Covid but in the vaccine group 0% got Covid. But that really doesn't take into account the likelihood of getting it in the first place.

[Anastasius]

Regarding the actual screening tests, I now realise that I forgot to mention perhaps the most important negative aspect of the whole thing. Namely that out of the 12 items that they list in the protocol to be checked/tested during the physical examination, 10 out of the 12 were not done. The 11th partly and only the 12th completely.

[teamsaint]

Regarding the actual screening tests, I now realise that I forgot to mention perhaps the most important negative aspect of the whole thing. Namely that out of the 12 items that they list in the protocol to be checked/tested during the physical examination, 10 out of the 12 were not done. The 11th partly and only the 12th completely.

Thanks for your posts on this which are really interesting.
Which trial is it you are in, I tried looking up thread but couldn't see.