Coronavirus

[Dave2002]

Today, some of the case figures since 1st September have been reallocated between local authorities. (This mainly affects October/November.)

The reason is, I kid you not, that Dido Harding's lot had been using the NHS medical record address to allocate a positive test to the relevant local authority, rather than using the address given by the person at the time of the test.

There has been a very high prevalence of infections amongst university students - so the majority of those cases have suddenly been switched from the student's home address to their term time address.

I've just spent the last three hours tearing my hair out trying to figure out why today's October case figures for 15-19 year olds are dramatically different to those in data published yesterday. (I thought I must have cocked things up.)


Incidentally, as far as the cases/100k are concerned, I used the ONS population estimates by local authority by age group, which are supposed to include students at their term time address.

I sympathise wih your irritation.

You have identified a problem with the data, and the presentation of it. However, on the ground nothing has really changed much. Presumably the medical authortiies actually dealing with cases in cities like Bristol are well aware of this.

For planning and resource allocation getting properly assigned data will eventually be important - but has there been an immediate failure as a result of this error? Sometimes it really is important to get things right - but perhaps not so much harm has been done this time round - fortunately.

I think of the old saying "You can keep weighing the pigs, but it doesn't make them any fatter".

On the other hand, if there were to be imminent deployment of vaccines, then presumably data errors such as this would send some to the wrong places.

Otherwise, with this new insight, what decisions would you change now?

Seems like the Queen of Carthage is running true to form, nevertheless.

[johnb]

Dave,

This type of error will have had no impact on Track & Trace but it might well have adversely influenced CV-19 public health decisions as those should be, at the very least, heavily influenced by the data. If the data for a local authority is wrong that might well lead to a less effective strategy. It certainly doesn't help (especially for university towns where the majority of students live in the community, e.g. Bristol).

The net effect is that 31,000 CV-19 cases have been moved from one local authority to another, mainly to university towns/cities.

Incidentally places most affected are Manchester (2,960 cases), Newcastle upon Tyne, Nottingham, Leeds, Bristol and Birmingham (993 cases).

[Bryn]

. . . Seems like the Queen of Carthage is running true to form, nevertheless.

And the building of her pyre will not even be put out to tender.

[Old Grumpy]

And the building of her pyre will not even be put out to tender.

Phyre tender?

OG

[Bryn]

Hmm:

You recently signed the petition “Hold a public inquiry into Government contracts granted during Covid-19”:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/328408

The Petitions Committee (the group of MPs who oversee the petitions system) have considered the Government’s response to this petition. They felt that the response did not directly address the request of petition and have therefore written back to the Government to ask them to provide a revised response.

When the Committee have[sic] received a revised response from the Government, this will be published on the website and you will receive an email. If you would not like to receive further updates about this petition, you can unsubscribe below.

Thanks,
The Petitions team
UK Government and Parliament

[oddoneout]

There is a sizeable tranche - £3 billion - of contracts for which details are still not available.
A related issue I read about recently concerns thousands of containers currently sitting at Felixstowe dock( I think mostly PPE related), which a rough calculation suggested could be costing something like £2 million per day for just sitting there. They are also clogging up the efficient working of the dock, which could become even more problematic come 1st January 21 I suspect... Although I've just seen that there are problems already https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/ne...it-loom/14/11/
The good news just keeps coming...

[Leinster Lass]

I sympathise wih your irritation.

You have identified a problem with the data, and the presentation of it. However, on the ground nothing has really changed much. Presumably the medical authortiies actually dealing with cases in cities like Bristol are well aware of this.

For planning and resource allocation getting properly assigned data will eventually be important - but has there been an immediate failure as a result of this error? Sometimes it really is important to get things right - but perhaps not so much harm has been done this time round - fortunately.

I think of the old saying "You can keep weighing the pigs, but it doesn't make them any fatter".

On the other hand, if there were to be imminent deployment of vaccines, then presumably data errors such as this would send some to the wrong places.

Otherwise, with this new insight, what decisions would you change now?

Seems like the Queen of Carthage is running true to form, nevertheless.

The BBC reports that she's self-isolating, which some folk might regard as just a bit ironic, others as proof of the efficacy of the system which she oversees.

[Frances_iom]

The BBC reports that she's self-isolating, which some folk might regard as just a bit ironic, others as proof of the efficacy of the system which she oversees.

From what I recall from various BBC news programs she is extremely reluctant to give interviews

[Cockney Sparrow]

From what I recall from various BBC news programs she is extremely reluctant to give interviews

Well, she's not elected, so not accountable to the likes of you and me. She appeared before a select committee and according to (the wonderful) John Crace in the Guardian she took a familiar line that if anyone or organisation was failing to perform it had nothing to do with her. He calls her Typhoid Dido.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/10/typhoid-dido-proves-fluent-in-management-bollocks-and-contradiction

[Pulcinella]

Well, she's not elected, so not accountable to the likes of you and me. She appeared before a select committee and according to (the wonderful) John Crace in the Guardian she took a familiar line that if anyone or organisation was failing to perform it had nothing to do with her. He calls her Typhoid Dido.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-contradiction

She's also been described as the Queen of Carnage; not sure where (perhaps on this Forum?).

[oddoneout]

Well, she's not elected, so not accountable to the likes of you and me. She appeared before a select committee and according to (the wonderful) John Crace in the Guardian she took a familiar line that if anyone or organisation was failing to perform it had nothing to do with her. He calls her Typhoid Dido.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-contradiction

This gives an idea of the committee performance https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...predict-demand in light of which reluctance to give interviews is possibly not such a bad thing. Sadly I doubt it's down to self-awareness about personal capabilities - or lack of.

[oddoneout]

She's also been described as the Queen of Carnage; not sure where (perhaps on this Forum?).

There have been various versions coined as the Dido reference has been picked up. Less likely to cause offence than another of the common nicknames given her... I made up Baroness Calamity Carthage recently, replying to ts's concerns about travel I think.

[Petrushka]

She's also been described as the Queen of Carnage; not sure where (perhaps on this Forum?).

I think it was first coined by Marina Hyde in the Guardian.

[Pulcinella]

I think it was first coined by Marina Hyde in the Guardian.

That makes sense; could well have seen it there.

[Dave2002]

It's not only the UK which has issues re controlling behaviour and minimising the impact of coronavirus. One comment in the linked article is the problem that people who are infected may be shedding the virus before they show any symptoms, or they may show no symptoms at all. This differs from some apparently similar diseases, such as SARS. These issues are going to affect people in many countries, not just the UK and the USA.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/16/health/thanksgiving-family-covid-testing-wellness/index.html