Coronavirus

[oddoneout]

And even more cynical to suggest that it's to deflect criticism away from the appallingly poor online provision for many (in terms of both equipment and material) if pupils are not at school.

Primary school children in Melbourne (just easing some restrictions after a 112-day lockdown) had a fully structured day of lessons, just like being at school, I think.

I think I read recently that the existing budget/provisions for supplying equipment to pupils(which had already left thousands of children without) has been further reduced, so schools needing x laptops are getting x minus a significant number - and that's assuming they arrive at all as there have, unsurprisingly, been supply problems.

[Serial_Apologist]

My first personal news today came of people within my circle of friends and acquaintances succumbing. The Italian guy with Philippino wife and newborn two flats away informs me that two l/term visitors had tested positive on return home, arriving at Rome airport. He himself had lost all sense of taste last week, but apart from mild stomach upset symptoms (he's 38) and being told he might not get his taste buds back "for weeks" he wasn't overly concerned, not knowing of under underlying condition. For safety's sake they'd had the baby tested - she had come back Positive, albeit to all intents symptom-less (temperature etc normal, but how do you ask a 2-week old??), but not, I understand, the wife.

[teamsaint]

Looking at the government dashboard figures, along with the Kings app data, it looks a lot as though we may in fact be reaching a peak , which might turn into a fairly high plateau, as various graphs were showing a couple of weeks ago.
R is 1.1 to 1.3 and falling, today's daily cases are the lowest for a while, and they have been fairly consistent around the low 20ks for a couple of weeks. The Kings app shows the start of a levelling off. Perhaps the tier system was starting to work after all ? There were certainly signs of levelling off in certain hot spots.

Obviously little room for complacency, but also plenty of room for questions about the new lockdown.

I'm sure Johnb can clarify where the data is headed.

[Anastasius]

No I’m not cherry picking, just pointing out some interesting material. Inevitably people choose things that illustrate a point.

Which is kind of different. And there are eminent scientists who disagree with the SAGE conclusions and projections , notably from Kings , and Carl Heneghan.



Evidence ?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-indirectly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-lockdown-cause-excess-deaths-180636962.html

Perhaps you think that lockdown is good for the economy ? Or do you need evidence on that too ?

Anyway, no more discussion with you, till you cut out the personal stuff, which is about the sixth time I have had to ask. It really is bloody tiresome to have to ask SO often.

Not at all. Of course a lockdown is bad for the economy. But so is a high death toll due to Covid running rampant.

Thank you for those links et al. I read what Heneghan was saying and he does make some good points. However I could find no reference to his views on any strategy to minimise cross-infection. He remains silent on what mitigation measures should be taken. He focusses on better testing and better interpretation of those results but that is his metier. I see nothing to do with behavioural science and how the message is got across to the very many people who think that wearing a mask is unnecessary and sso do not. And the number of supermarkets who put their profits ahead of customers' safety by allowing customers inside without masks. Stand up Tesco's and Sainsbury's.

The second of those links has more supposition than fact.

If we wind back and look at what has happened over the last month or so, there is no denying that whatever measures were in place they were failing to stop that inexorable rise in infections. The number of people who were supposed to isolate after being contacted by Test and Trace but who are not is very high. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/nhs-...e-isolate-data

I think that the crux of the matter is winning over the hearts and minds of the populus. I don't think that that will ever happen in the UK (and probably not in the rest of Europe). It's not in the psyche.

[Anastasius]

...
I'm very cheerful by the way, all things considered, in the main. But I am really disappointed about personal attacks on this forum.

....

TS...I promise. No more.

[teamsaint]

TS...I promise. No more.

Plain speaking and healthy debate is good with me !!

Heneghan's plan: (from the Mail, and I am not necessarily endorsing it...)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8900897/Oxford-experts-DR-TOM-JEFFERSON-PROFESSOR-CARL-HENEGHAN-reveal-blueprint-handed-Boris-Johnson.html

[muzzer]

The Tr**p and Covid prog on the iPlayer “Totally Under Control” is methodical in showing just how venal and incompetent the US response has been. Day by day takedown. Rivalled only of course by our own blonde bluffoon’s serial blunders.

[oddoneout]

Not at all. Of course a lockdown is bad for the economy. But so is a high death toll due to Covid running rampant.

Thank you for those links et al. I read what Heneghan was saying and he does make some good points. However I could find no reference to his views on any strategy to minimise cross-infection. He remains silent on what mitigation measures should be taken. He focusses on better testing and better interpretation of those results but that is his metier. I see nothing to do with behavioural science and how the message is got across to the very many people who think that wearing a mask is unnecessary and sso do not. And the number of supermarkets who put their profits ahead of customers' safety by allowing customers inside without masks. Stand up Tesco's and Sainsbury's.

The second of those links has more supposition than fact.

If we wind back and look at what has happened over the last month or so, there is no denying that whatever measures were in place they were failing to stop that inexorable rise in infections. The number of people who were supposed to isolate after being contacted by Test and Trace but who are not is very high. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/nhs-...e-isolate-data

I think that the crux of the matter is winning over the hearts and minds of the populus. I don't think that that will ever happen in the UK (and probably not in the rest of Europe). It's not in the psyche.

Until the double problem of inadequate T&T and support for those who have to isolate is sorted, or at least working better, there will continue to be unnecessary infection and its consequences as far as I can see. Local T&T run by public bodies seems to be doing fine, but the national Serco system is failing inexcusably. But who makes sure those told to isolate have enough food, and won't be facing eviction if they can't pay rent? Who makes sure they won't lose their job if they don't go in to work? It's all very well saying there are things in place - universal credit, tenant and employment protections - but they don't work as they should in many cases and are no protection at the time against an employer or landlord who acts illegally, and don't work quickly enough anyway.

[johnb]

I'm sure Johnb can clarify where the data is headed.

I'm not at all sure about that.

There was an interesting and informative discussion between Evan Davis and the FT Covid chart guru on today's PM programme - well worth given it a listen.

I've done and interactive map of the increases/decreases in Covid-19 by local authority. I could post a screen grab but it wouldn't have the functionality of the interactive map.

One problem with week on week calculations is that one has to go back 5 days to get fairly complete case figures for the later week, otherwise one is comparing an earlier complete week with a week with incomplete cases. (The Covid case stats that are used in the media often go back 3 days.)


Covid-19 Increases/Decreases for 7 days to 28/10/20 by local authority
Covid-19 Cases by Specimen Date for 7 days to 28/10/20 by local authority
Covid-19 Deaths by Reported Date for 7 days to 02/11/20
Scatter chart of Cases/100k vs Index of Multiple Deprivation

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZDkxMTQwYTAtZGI2MS00MjI2LWJkYzEtNDQ3ZjM0ZDczZTE0IiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

The following link is for a similar report but with case data only going back 3 days (i.e. 30/10/20) and without the Increases/Decreases page. A compromise between accuracy and timeliness.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMzg0YjRiMDUtYjVhZC00MWQ3LWIxMTUtMTkyMjExZWRhM2VjIiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

Incidentally, in case anyone is interested in the Bristol/Bath/Weston-super-Mare region this is a report giving cases by local MSOA areas, with more information than the government map. It is also easier to use IMO. (The increases/decreases are based on a week that only goes back 3 days, so are possibly slightly understated. Work to be done on that.) [That was wrong, the case data goes back 5 days and the increases/decreases are reasonably representative.]

These are intended to be viewed on a PC or laptop.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMWM5NTljYjQtMWQ1OC00YzMzLWFlZmUtOTMwMmQzY2Q1OTJiIiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

[Anastasius]

Plain speaking and healthy debate is good with me !!

Heneghan's plan: (from the Mail, and I am not necessarily endorsing it...)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-Johnson.html

Yes, that's the one that I read. As I said he made some good points but also ignored a lot.

There's a lot of good stuff coming from experienced professors and medics regarding SARS and how they beat it and what we've been doing wrong.

[Anastasius]

Until the double problem of inadequate T&T and support for those who have to isolate is sorted, or at least working better, there will continue to be unnecessary infection and its consequences as far as I can see. Local T&T run by public bodies seems to be doing fine, but the national Serco system is failing inexcusably. But who makes sure those told to isolate have enough food, and won't be facing eviction if they can't pay rent? Who makes sure they won't lose their job if they don't go in to work? It's all very well saying there are things in place - universal credit, tenant and employment protections - but they don't work as they should in many cases and are no protection at the time against an employer or landlord who acts illegally, and don't work quickly enough anyway.

Bang on the money there. The local Public Health people are the ones with the LOCAL knowledge and experience. As recommended by the SARS people I referred to above.

[Anastasius]

Interesting stats from the CEO of the NHS in yesterday's briefing from the blonde buffoon. Current hospital admissions for Covid....just over 11,000. Normal figures for this time of year ...flu 3,000. and cancer 7,000. Kind of puts the lie behind all those saying that Covid is no worse than flu.

[oddoneout]

Interesting stats from the CEO of the NHS in yesterday's briefing from the blonde buffoon. Current hospital admissions for Covid....just over 11,000. Normal figures for this time of year ...flu 3,000. and cancer 7,000. Kind of puts the lie behind all those saying that Covid is no worse than flu.

And many of those who come out with that silly statement probably think that flu is just a bad cold, and aren't aware how ill some people can become with it. These days no-one has a headache they have migraine and no-one just has a cold they have flu. Even a healthy individual can have the stuffing knocked out of them by a run-in with flu, and it can leave its mark for weeks or months after with depression and fatigue. Yes many people will have mild symptoms with the corona virus, but for those who don't things can quickly turn very unpleasant, so flippancy and downplaying the potential for severe illness is inappropriate. That's not to say that blind panic is any better mind.

[Bryn]

. . . These days no-one has a headache they have migraine . . .

Whereas these days, I get migraines without the headache, 'just' the scary visual disturbances (wriggly multi-coloured flashing Rubik's snakes).

[jayne lee wilson]

Whereas these days, I get migraines without the headache, 'just' the scary visual disturbances (wriggly multi-coloured flashing Rubik's snakes).

The classical migraine symptom, called an "aura". I see these frequently, often in the form of a multicoloured neon zigzag or corkscrew, usually lateral to my main visual field.
But what can you expect from brain damage after all. Par for the course. And easier to cope with than headaches, in all their various dazzling forms, themselves.