Coronavirus

[french frank]

He was the one who largely took credit for the campaign for Brexit, and now he's raising questions about why?

Did you not see the Downfall: Boris's HQ when the news arrives? I think that explained it pretty coherently.

[Dave2002]

Did you not see the Downfall: Boris's HQ when the news arrives? I think that explained it pretty coherently.

Can't recall it well, if indeed I ever saw that.

[french frank]

Can't recall it well, if indeed I ever saw that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a6HNXtdvVQ

[Dave2002]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a6HNXtdvVQ

Very funny. Where did the video come from before the subtitles were put on?

[Bryn]

Very funny. Where did the video come from before the subtitles were put on?

[french frank]

Very funny. Where did the video come from before the subtitles were put on?

There were many YouTubes parodies at one time but this was reckoned one of the most successful. Bryn, thanks for the trailer. Even the mention of Hitler sheltering in his bunker made me think of Boris in the fridge.

[french frank]

Getting back on topic, there's an interesting long article in today's Atlantic "This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic". I haven't yet digested the whole thing but it's basically saying that R is nor so important in understanding what is happening with the spread of the virus as k.

R is an average indicating the rate of spread through the general population. k measures the transmission in clusters, rather than by community transmission, indicating the super-spreaders responsible for the majority of the new infections.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

[Dave2002]

That article is now 3 weeks old, but still worth reading. One problem with discussing R and k and what have you is whether these are control variables or derived. They may indicate what has happened, but be relatively useless for control purposes. That's not to say that it's pointless to have the information and hopefully the scientists and health officers are making good use of the data that they have. What we'd really like to have is measurements of variables which are closely linked to things and activities we really can control, and given the timings, we'd ideally hope to have the important indicators as early as possible to minimise the control lag.

At the start of this two things were noticed - 1. people were getting ill with cold/flu like (but not the same) symptoms, and 2. people were dying after perhaps a month. Trying to find effective things to control was a challenge, and much more is now known, but as I understand it knowledge is still rather imperfect and incomplete, with what are perceived as anomalies cropping up quite frequently. We still don't have certainty about some control variables, and it seems that combinations are necessary - there is not one silver bullet.

In our societies, we usually leave the monitoring and information gathering to experts, scientists and health officials - much maligned by some politicians in various countries. With this pandemic, it seems that some control factors are societal, and require good and effective information flows - such as from the experts to local authorities and government, and lastly back to the population at large, so that some control can be maintained. Delays and poor following of suggested guidelines are also going to contribute to lag effects. Sometimes there may be overshoot and sometimes undershoot behaviour. This becomes a control problem - something which control engineers might be familiar with - hopefully!

[french frank]

That article is now 3 weeks old, but still worth reading.

Sorry, it arrived in my Inbox this morning, but I thought some of the political stuff was familiar: I didn't remember reading this one - but I think there is a 'cumulative' list of articles at the end of the message.

This caught my eye because I watched a video from the Bristol Mayor yesterday in which he was describing how, although the Bristol infections were increasing, they were mainly in identified clusters, and a statement from the council that I've just read said the student infections were being 'overwhelmingly contained' within the halls of residence.

[Dave2002]

Sorry, it arrived in my Inbox this morning, but I thought some of the political stuff was familiar...

No apology needed. Just heard that the NY Phil have cancelled the whole of the next season.

[johnb]

Sorry, it arrived in my Inbox this morning, but I thought some of the political stuff was familiar: I didn't remember reading this one - but I think there is a 'cumulative' list of articles at the end of the message.

This caught my eye because I watched a video from the Bristol Mayor yesterday in which he was describing how, although the Bristol infections were increasing, they were mainly in identified clusters, and a statement from the council that I've just read said the student infections were being 'overwhelmingly contained' within the halls of residence.

I feel my hackles rising at that council statement.

According to the Bristol University website there are 7,000 places in the official student "residences". This includes the Halls of Residence and the numerous other buildings that have been converted to accommodate students over recent years.

While I am sure that every effort is being made to contain infections that occur amongst students who are living in halls of residence, What about the other 21,000 students at Bristol University alone (never mind UWE) who are presumably living in the general community? Are they somehow immune to the virus or living monastic lives?

Even if you remove all the cases amongst Bristol University and UWE students from the figures, the cases in Bristol have still grown ~75% between the 7 days to the 20th and the previous 7 days.

[cloughie]

No apology needed. Just heard that the NY Phil have cancelled the whole of the next season.

I wonder if rfg has info on other American orchestras.

[Bryn]

I feel my hackles rising at that council statement.

According to the Bristol University website there are 7,000 places in the official student "residences". This includes the Halls of Residence and the numerous other buildings that have been converted to accommodate students over recent years.

While I am sure that every effort is being made to contain infections that occur amongst students who are living in halls of residence, What about the other 21,000 students at Bristol University alone (never mind UWE) who are presumably living in the general community? Are they somehow immune to the virus or living monastic lives?

Even if you remove all the cases amongst Bristol University and UWE students from the figures, the cases in Bristol have still grown ~75% between the 7 days to the 20th and the previous 7 days.

Though the increase of ~75% in Bristol looks stark, here in Bracknell Forest, a Unitary Authority with no higher education facility, and which has a lower population density, appears to have experienced a 46% increase during the same period. I think this lends a certain perspective to the Bristol increase.

[oddoneout]

The parallel universe continues...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/24/how-londons-top-restaurants-are-skewering-the-covid-rules

I wonder how many of those diners comply with supplying name and contact details.

[Anastasius]

T.....and lastly back to the population at large, so that some control can be maintained. ...

Trouble is that large swathes of the 'population at large' are too thick or stupid to understand the reality of Covid and the impact that it's having on everyone else. Their attitude is 'self..self..self'. Think the Govt is missing a trick. Shouldn't the script writers of all those ghastly TV soaps be having characters dying in droves ? Being too ill to pick up a pint of beer? All the sort of things that might actually get through the thick skulls out there and make them wake up ?