Coronavirus

[Serial_Apologist]

An object lesson in interviewing politicians spreading false information re COVID-19:

Well I for one was left fuming at Andrew Marr's failure on his show yesterday to tackle Gove's charge against Andy Burnham accusing him of demanding extra financial support while claiming that the the Covid-19 problem in Manchester was being exaggerated by the government. Gove had effectively asked why, if Burnham did not think the problem to be that serious, was he demanding extra money? Marr's presumed "authority" was subsequently used by other reporters as though factual. Instead of pointing out that it was the government that was prepared to impose Tier 3 conditions, and that figures for Covid in the Manchester area were in any case ambivalent, and certainly not indicative of any worsening, he petulantly finished the interview with a string of unrelated questions about Brexit, thereby avoiding the issue of factuality, which is vital if people are to be armed with the facts, and which is one of the main reasons the government continually gets away with false claims.

[teamsaint]

Talking of spin, this is well worth reading. The Manchester Evening News asking some very pertinent questions about ICU capacity in the area.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/secrecy-spin-surrounding-greater-manchesters-19131905

[Bryn]

This utterly stupid, arrogant interviewer asks the interviewee a question and then cuts him off immediately with "I don't want to hear..." She should be sacked for incompetence. They must have known it was a guest with controversial views, so why invite him on to begin with if she was going to cut off/censor whatever she didn't want to hear? Some viewers might at least have wanted to know what he had to say.

An object lesson in how NOT to interview.

How "utterly" wrong you are. When dealing with a prominent Covid-denier like Jami-Lee Ross it was crucial that he be given no quarter. Would that Trump was similarly challenged and cut short when spouting his dangerous nonsense. What I find "utterly stupid" is the failure to strongly challenge such dangerous people in interviews.

[french frank]

This ... interviewer asks the interviewee a question and then cuts him off immediately with "I don't want to hear..."

I think he was just saying, if I caught a snatch of it, that the flu averagely claimed more lives than coronavirus. I expect she was fed up with having to respond to that irrelevance (we don't know how many people are going to die from COVID-19 since we're in the middle of the pandemic, there are long-term effects of Long Covid which I certainly haven't seen reported about flu, the level of contagiousness of flu is not comparable with COVID-19 &c &c). That aside, it's good to see a woman shutting up a man for a change!

[Serial_Apologist]

I think he was just saying, if I caught a snatch of it, that the flu averagely claimed more lives than coronavirus. I expect she was fed up with having to respond to that irrelevance (we don't know how many people are going to die from COVID-19 since we're in the middle of the pandemic, there are long-term effects of Long Covid which I certainly haven't seen reported about flu, the level of contagiousness of flu is not comparable with COVID-19 &c &c). That aside, it's good to see a woman shutting up a man for a change!

I've never "got" the sauce-for-the goose, sauce-for-the gander argument.

I'm probably taking you too seriously, ff!

[johnb]

This is a link to an interactive map showing the week on week increases in CV19 cases by local authority. There are two pages, one shows the week on week increases, the other shows the cases for the same date (as in previous maps).

Unfortunately one has to go back 5 or 6 days for the week on week figures to be meaningful ** but then they become somewhat less relevant.

Anyway, this is the link:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNjQyYmJiNDctMDM0MC00YzMwLWEyN2EtNjcxOTk2YWM1OTcxIiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

(I am separately maintaining the daily case map, linked to in post #4112.)

** This is because the case data for local authority is by specimen date. The cases that are reported each day will have specimen dates spread over the previous week, with most being for 2 to 4 days before the date reported. The cases for local authorities that are reported in the media, etc are only indicative and are a compromise between accuracy and timeliness, e.g. going back 3 days (e.g. BBC case figures) only captures around 87% of the actual cases overall and for some local authorities it can be as low as 75%.

[french frank]

I've never "got" the sauce-for-the goose, sauce-for-the gander argument.

I'm probably taking you too seriously, ff!

It is a very widely expressed experience of sexism by women, that they are constantly being interrupted. That's I was referring to.

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2017/07/07/men-interrupting-women

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/14/business/women-sexism-work-huffington-kamala-harris.html

https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/2137023/science-behind-interrupting-gender-nationality

https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/what-counts-as-a-rude-interruption-depends-on-your-gender-study-confirms.html

but https://graziadaily.co.uk/life/real-...ays-new-study/

Have to say, I've not encountered it myself … lately .

[french frank]

This is a link to an interactive map showing the week on week increases in CV19 cases by local authority. There are two pages, one shows the week on week increases, the other shows the cases for the same date (as in previous maps).

Bristol seems to have leapt up the league tables, very quickly, johnb?

[johnb]

Bristol seems to have leapt up the league tables, very quickly, johnb?

Bristol is certainly faring significantly worse than it did in the first wave but, looking at the latest data I can find at MSOA level, around a third of all the cases are in three areas: Bristol City Centre (The Centre extending up to Tyndall's Park, Stoke Bishop and "Cotham" (actually Redland - they have mixed up Redland and Cotham). All student areas.

However infections do seem to be spreading more generally through the population.

The cases and case rates at MSOA level can be seen on the redesigned PHE map (which IMO is a bit of a dog's breakfast).**

By the way, I've updated the daily CV19 cases map with today's data.

[Later]
** By the way, the cases/100k shown on that MSOA map need to be treated with caution where the area has a significant student population as I suspect that the population figures being used to calculate the rates will be based on the resident population, though I might be wrong.

[french frank]

Many thanks, john.

Bristol is certainly faring significantly worse than it did in the first wave but, looking at the latest data I can find at MSOA level, around a third of all the cases are in three areas: Bristol City Centre (The Centre extending up to Tyndall's Park, Stoke Bishop and "Cotham" (actually Redland - they have mixed up Redland and Cotham). All student areas.

However infections do seem to be spreading more generally through the population.

The cases and case rates at MSOA level can be seen on the redesigned PHE map (which IMO is a bit of a dog's breakfast).

By the way, I've updated the daily CV19 cases map with today's data.

[Pulcinella]

[Later]
** By the way, the cases/100k shown on that MSOA map need to be treated with caution where the area has a significant student population as I suspect that the population figures being used to calculate the rates will be based on the resident population, though I might be wrong.

That could be the case here in York, too.

[teamsaint]

That could be the case here in York, too.

So are you suggesting that they are including the students for positives, but not including them in the population figures? That might distort the figures pretty significantly .

[Pulcinella]

So are you suggesting that they are including the students for positives, but not including them in the population figures? That might distort the figures pretty significantly .

That seems to be what johnb is implying.
(You might have replied to the wrong post, as I've no idea! But there are certainly a lot of cases here in York, regardless of what proportion they are.)

[teamsaint]

Bristol is certainly faring significantly worse than it did in the first wave but, looking at the latest data I can find at MSOA level, around a third of all the cases are in three areas: Bristol City Centre (The Centre extending up to Tyndall's Park, Stoke Bishop and "Cotham" (actually Redland - they have mixed up Redland and Cotham). All student areas.

However infections do seem to be spreading more generally through the population.

The cases and case rates at MSOA level can be seen on the redesigned PHE map (which IMO is a bit of a dog's breakfast).**

By the way, I've updated the daily CV19 cases map with today's data.

[Later]
** By the way, the cases/100k shown on that MSOA map need to be treated with caution where the area has a significant student population as I suspect that the population figures being used to calculate the rates will be based on the resident population, though I might be wrong.

I have been keeping an eye on Test Valley, which tends is more significant to me than S Wilts where we live, as we work and shop in Test Valley.
I am pretty sure that its “ potential hot spot” status is due to a couple of localised outbreaks,which may well have been contained.
Oh for easy to access, quick results saliva tests like Southampton University.
Perhaps then we could all get on with normal life, and avoid the worst of the threat that the centralised moonshot presents.

[johnb]

So are you suggesting that they are including the students for positives, but not including them in the population figures? That might distort the figures pretty significantly .

Sorry, it looks as though my suspicions were unfounded as the ONS website states:

The estimates use the census definition of people who are “usually resident” in the UK for 12 months, excluding short-term migrants and counting students at their term-time addresses.

The population estimates for areas with a high student population are probably somewhat less reliable though.