Coronavirus

[french frank]

Please let me know what you think.

Seems to work all right johnb. If a median age is 32, what could one conclude, roughly, about the age range (given that there are a lot more people above 32 than below, and that the very young aren't (I think) seriously affected)? That the bulk of the new infections are now roughly 20-45? Or do we have the precise figures?

[french frank]

Is it possible to get back to that, or has that now disappeared? I didn't get anywhere with the links to Prof Openshaw's comments. Otherwise is there a transcript, or other commentary with the major points?

Are you using the link in #4101? You can download the audio clip.

[Dave2002]

I’ve just been alerted to a petition to stop MPs from having a pay rise. I would have liked to comment on it, but I signed anyway. I don’t actually begrudge all the MPs their pay, but I do think that the NHS workers who have been trying to cope with the pandemic deserve better treatment. Perhaps MPs should be given a “Public Duty” badge, with a nice logo on instead of the proposed £3k pay increase.

[Cockney Sparrow]

Perhaps MPs should be given a “Public Duty” badge, with a nice logo on instead of the proposed £3k pay increase.

I wish there was a "my side is splitting with laughter emoticon. I bet NHS and care workers have some inventive ideas where they would like to lodge their badges when Ministers come visiting (always with camera(s) in tow). As my father reported, he told the sergeant "you can keep your bl**** medals...." and as it was a demob conversation he escaped a charge.

(From time to time, I also wished there was a "tugging my forelock" emoticon here as well - not on this occasion, I hasten to add).

[johnb]

Seems to work all right johnb. If a median age is 32, what could one conclude, roughly, about the age range (given that there are a lot more people above 32 than below, and that the very young aren't (I think) seriously affected)? That the bulk of the new infections are now roughly 20-45? Or do we have the precise figures?

In the figures reported over the 7 days to the 16th:

The age groups with by far the highest number of cases are the 15-19 (16%) and 20-24 (15%) groups

15-24 age group accounted for 31% of total cases in England but represents only 12% of the population, and the
15-44 age group accounted for 60% of the cases while representing 38% of the population.

If the median age is 32 (I guess we are talking about Bristol) there will be as many people aged below 32 as there are aged above 32. The higher the median age the higher the percentage of older people in the population and we know that CV19 affects the elderly much more severely than the young. However, there are so many other factors at play that I don't think one can draw any conclusions. For example, Bristol (at 32.4) is in the lowest median age decile whereas, say, Torbay (49.1) is in the highest, but it is glaringly obvious that the areas are vastly different in a whole plethera of ways. (Apologies for stating the bleeding obvious.)

I added the median age, population density and deprivation to the "information pane" for the map because various people have mentioned each of them as being contributing factors with CV19 but I wouldn't place too much weight on any of them because of the many other contributing factors.

[johnb]

By the way, I have now added the percentage 7 day increase/decrease to the "list" included in the map I mentioned in post #4105. The column can be sorted by clicking on the column header.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMzg0YjRiMDUtYjVhZC00MWQ3LWIxMTUtMTkyMjExZWRhM2VjIiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

(The mouse wheel can be used to zoom in or out and the left mouse button can be used to move the map around.)

I will try to keep the map updated on a daily basis.

PS The map is based on PHE data for cases by specimen but I only realised a few days ago that it includes incorrect information for the Scottish areas. It gives cases by reported date but labels them as cases by specimen date. It has been a real pain in the backside to get the correct data from PHS and then work out how to integrate it with the existing PHE data.

[french frank]

If the median age is 32 (I guess we are talking about Bristol) there will be as many people aged below 32 as there are aged above 32.

Yes, of course, I'd forgotten that Bristol might be skewed younger.

[Bryn]

By the way, I have now added the percentage 7 day increase/decrease to the "list" included in the map I mentioned in post #4105. The column can be sorted by clicking on the column header.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMzg0YjRiMDUtYjVhZC00MWQ3LWIxMTUtMTkyMjExZWRhM2VjIiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

(The mouse wheel can be used to zoom in or out and the left mouse button can be used to move the map around.)

I will try to keep the map updated on a daily basis.

PS The map is based on PHE data for cases by specimen but I only realised a few days ago that it includes incorrect information for the Scottish areas. It gives cases by reported date but labels them as cases by specimen date. It has been a real pain in the backside to get the correct data from PHS and then work out how to integrate it with the existing PHE data.

No data for Hackney? I don't live there but have good friends who do.

[johnb]

No data for Hackney? I don't live there but have good friends who do.

I hold my hands up to that one.

The reason is that I am using the ONS shapefile (map) based on 2020 local authority boundaries whereas the PHE data uses the 2019 boundaries - so there is a mismatch for "Hackney and the City of London" and the information isn't shown. In the file for the 2019 boundaries Hackney and the City of London are combined but in the 2020 they are separate. (If you zoom in to London you will see Hackney and the City of London are greyed out.)

I'll change the map to use the ONS 2019 boundaries over the weekend. In the meantime, the stats for "Hackney and the City of London" for the 7 days to 14/10 are:

Cases/100k: 114.5
Prev Wk: 142.6
Increase: -20%

[Bryn]

I hold my hands up to that one.

The reason is that I am using a shapefile (map) based on 2020 local authority boundaries whereas the PHE data uses the 2019 boundaries - so there is a mismatch for "Hackney and the City of London" and the information isn't shown. In the 2019 boundaries Hackney and the City of London are combined but in the 2020 they are separate. (If you zoom in to London you will see Hackney and the City of London are greyed out.)

I'll change the map to use the 2019 boundaries over the weekend. In the meantime, the stats for "Hackney and the City of London" for the 7 days to 14/10 are:

Cases/100k: 114.5
Prev Wk: 142.6
Increase: -20%

Thanks. Those are the sort of figures I was expecting. Best of luck with sorting out the problem.

[teamsaint]

Just a little good news, the sort the media seem to dislike, for a change.

Younger son works at Southampton University, and tells us that almost all teaching is going ahead face to face, and that the university has only 20 live covid cases, who are of course isolating. Some field trips are being cancelled, but in the main the University is functioning somewhere near normal. Students aren’t socialising in large groups, but tyey are able to have something of a social life, and in general the feeling is that the students are getting a reasonable deal. Apparently they are using a trial saliva test ( and trace) system,previously piloted in the summer, which is available on demand for all students, but which isn’t mandatory.

The uni is having to use its PR machine to reassure the city community about infection rates etc. There must be other good news ( relatively) like this, it’s a pity we don’t hear a little more about them in the media.

[johnb]

Thanks. Those are the sort of figures I was expecting. Best of luck with sorting out the problem.

It turns out that both the ONS 2019 and 2020 [correction] boundaries treat Hackney and the City of London as separate local authorities, whereas the PHE data files combine them.

What I've now done is put the PHE "Hackney and the City of London" data into "Hackney" on the map and uploaded the revised file, using today's data - for the 7 days to 14/10/2020.

[french frank]

it’s a pity we don’t hear a little more about them in the media.

I'm afraid it is the nature of the beast: "Good news is no news." Universities are getting back to normal, face to face teaching has begun again; Chelsea (19) said "Students are beginning to feel they're getting a better deal now." Sorry, we've all moved on to very high risk areas now facing stricter lockdowns &c.

[teamsaint]

Looking at the government figures, esp the 7 day average of new cases, (obviously to be treated with caution) you might optimistically come to the conclusion that the latest curve was starting to flatten?

I think I saw somewhere in many areas this is in fact the case .

Lets hope so.

[Bryn]

An object lesson in interviewing politicians spreading false information re COVID-19: