Coronavirus

[Bryn]

Re #4076, very much so. About to search out the new 'brown' COVID-19 map as shown on recent news broadcasts.

[johnb]

Re #4076, very much so. About to search out the new 'brown' COVID-19 map as shown on recent news broadcasts.

In case you haven't already found the slides/datasets used in the press conference they are published on this webpage: https://www.gov.uk/government/collec...s-and-datasets

I am trying to sort out the labyrinthine admin rights within PowerBi so I can share the interactive map. If I succeed (and it is an "if") I should be able to either share a URL to the map or embed the interactive map in a website/social media/blog.

(It is unlikely that I could embed it in a post on the forum as vBulletin recommends forum admins not to allow "iframes" because they can be used maliciously.)

[Cockney Sparrow]

Re #4076, very much so. About to search out the new 'brown' COVID-19 map as shown on recent news broadcasts.

"Cases by local area" link on this page :

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases

takes one to:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

On my PC, its Blue though. Also, its 1st to 7th October. It does, however, go into smaller areas than District Council area.

Perhaps the graphic in the BBC news broadcast, lunchtime today, R4, is more up to date.......

Edited - added:

As we're intending to travel to the Borders in Scotland, if possible, this is the Scottish Dashboard :

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

And Map (the areas can be quite large, others smaller - I presume on the basis of population numbers):

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

[teamsaint]

Had another look at the Kings app data today, which shows total estimated numbers infected rising at around 13 k each day around the 24th of September, but only at about 7 k a day now, and so the curve is starting to flatten.
Of course, this is only one stat, but if the curve is already flattening, then maybe questions need to be asked about the govt dashboard numbers, restrictions, etc.

[Pulcinella]

Had another look at the Kings app data today, which shows total estimated numbers infected rising at around 13 k each day around the 24th of September, but only at about 7 k a day now, and so the curve is starting to flatten.
Of course, this is only one stat, but if the curve is already flattening, then maybe questions need to be asked about the govt dashboard numbers, restrictions, etc.

Do we know how the estimates are arrived at?
For example, all the students in forced self-isolation are presumably not being tested, but what proportion of them are considered as being infected?

[teamsaint]

Do we know how the estimates are arrived at?
For example, all the students in forced self-isolation are presumably not being tested, but what proportion of them are considered as being infected?

No idea really, the info on the site is a bit sketchy , so I am treating it with caution. But then I am treating some other forecasts with caution too.
In general, the “ Doubling every seven days “ forecasts / predictions don’t seem to be happening, with the likely number more like 14 days.

The numbers of infections among students, how th ey are feeding into the stats, and how far outbreaks are being contained in the student community are questions that don’t seem to be fully understood yet, though of course the outbreaks were all too predictable.

[DracoM]

Poor Liverpool.

[oddoneout]

I heard Johnson briefly earlier this afternoon(due to planned TV viewing giving way to Westminster matters, not from choice) and have just checked what I heard as it bothered me.

So let me repeat the offer that we are making to those local authorities – work with us on these difficult but necessary measures in the areas that are rated very high areas, in return for: more support for local test and trace, more funding for local enforcement, the offer of help from the armed services, the job support scheme as announced by the chancellor.

I don't know about anyone else but I find the choice of words odd, and disturbing. "Offer we are making", "work with us....in return for.." sounds like threats to me, rather than what surely a national government should be doing anyway in such circumstances, particularly where the measures imposed are those of the government?

[Cockney Sparrow]

Just listened to Sir Charles Walker, MP for Broxbourne, Herts and Vice Chairman of the 1922 Committee, 5.13pm on PM, Radio 4. Seems to be a true Tory - he's broken cover and we can hear direct the view of business etc which has been a pressure on the Cummings/Johnson government. He's a real charmer…... (As irony leads to trouble hereabouts let me be clear - charming : NOT).

He says that:

• direction of travel seems to be to a full lockdown
  
• Covid-19 is not rampant, the centre for evidence based medicine says that the average age of death from Covid for is 82.4. Asked Parliamentary question - because measures will limit the life chances and affect the well being of small business owners and young people. Covid affects the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.
  
• The Nightingale hospitals treated negligible numbers……
  
• That the decisions are being made by the middle aged and well heeled, paid out of the public purse
  
• He represents many small businesses built up over years and decades and employ a lot of people and a lot of young people and their jobs have been or will be lost
  
• "If the elderly want to be sheltered……." (for ? 6 months) ….."many believe existing isn't living"….."this government for the best of reasons is trying to abolish death" ….. "people in their 80's and 90's die - if that comes as news to your listeners or they're offended by that statement they haven't been paying close attention"…. "we can't save every life"….. the cost to the living is too high - people not being treated for heart disease and cancer in their 30's, 40's and 50's is too high a cost.

My thoughts:
If the likes of Walker get their way, those who receive care (residential or in the home) had better hope the "defensive shield" this time is more than a figment of the cabinet's imagination.

Walker gives his support to a government that has been quite unable to organise an effective test and trace system. (Hearing in the news today China is to test millions in a region within a week). That failure, as well as the neglect of pandemic planning and resources, is the biggest cause of avoidable death and harm so far.

Johnson will give up Prime Ministerial power kicking and screaming. Don't expect him to opt for his legacy in the political annals to be responsibility for another massive round of deaths. Reckless, uncaring, unprincipled, immoral but not without regard for his own interests and self importance.

The following interview was with a Professor of child health and outbreak medicine at Liverpool University (at 5.19pm) and he pointed out the sentiments didn't take account of the 620 health and medical workers who have died from Covid19. Pointing out the effect of the 2nd wave of the pandemic so far, with the extent of infection when we are still in Summer Time and have much winter weather ahead of us. Also, a secondary effect not mentioned is the consequential loss ofl services as essential workers cannot work because of sickness and debility.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000ndbf

[Pulcinella]

Poor Liverpool.

But, once again, if it's got to happen, why doesn't it happen NOW?
I simply do not understand why there is any delay.

[johnb]

No idea really, the info on the site is a bit sketchy , so I am treating it with caution. But then I am treating some other forecasts with caution too.
In general, the “ Doubling every seven days “ forecasts / predictions don’t seem to be happening, with the likely number more like 14 days.

The numbers of infections among students, how th ey are feeding into the stats, and how far outbreaks are being contained in the student community are questions that don’t seem to be fully understood yet, though of course the outbreaks were all too predictable.

The problem with using a national average of the doubling rate is that the rate varies greatly from area to area across the country. For example, if one takes the latest data for w/e 01/10 and w/e 08/10, the increases over that weekly interval are equivalent to 2.2 days to double in Tendring and 44 days in South Norfolk.

Below is an update of the map I posted in #4035 http://www.for3.org/forums/showthrea...558#post811558.

An interactive version where the details of each area can be seen by moving the mouse over the area, and where you can zoom in and out with the mouse wheel, can be seen here on the Microsoft PowerBi website:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNWE4M2M2NGYtNThhZC00YWIxLWI0NjMtZjI3N2JhOTFiMGMyIiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

The overall rate of increase does *seem* to have slowed somewhat compared to the earlier post.

If students are being tested via the NHS system I see no reason to suppose that the cases are not included in the case stats. If, however, some universities have set up their own testing using private companies that are not integrated into the NHS system - who knows?

[johnb]

By the way, I suggest people treat the cases/100k figures quoted by The Guardian, both in the paper and online, with a degree of caution.

They understate the actual case rates.

The daily case numbers that are announced each day relate to specimen dates that are spread over the previous week, with the bulk being between 2 and 4 days before the date the figures are announced.

The cases rates calculated by the BBC, The Guardian, etc are based on the Cases by Specimen Date files downloaded from the gov.uk website.

The Guardian is using the cases for the week ending 2 days before the date the figures are published. This includes days which are incomplete.

As an example, take say Manchester for w/e 07/10/20

The Guardian would have used the data published on the 9th: 2,438 cases, 441 cs/100k.
The BBC would have used the date published on the 10th: 2,715, 491 cs/100k.
The government press briefing before last used data published 4 days after, and doing that (using the data published on the 11th data) would give: 2824 cases, 511 cs/100k. **

It is a compromise between accuracy and timeliness and I suggest The Guardian has got it wrong. The BBC's method is a reasonable compromise.

** I calculated the cases/100k using the ONS Mid 2019 population estimates. The government press briefing slides use the ONS Mid 2018 estimates. The Guardian and the BBC *seem* to use the mid 2019 figures. (Too much information.)

[Globaltruth]

The problem with using a national average of the doubling rate is that the rate varies greatly from area to area across the country. For example, if one takes the latest data for w/e 01/10 and w/e 08/10, the increases over that weekly interval are equivalent to 2.2 days to double in Tendring and 44 days in South Norfolk.

Below is an update of the map I posted in #4035 http://www.for3.org/forums/showthrea...558#post811558.

An interactive version where the details of each area can be seen by moving the mouse over the area, and where you can zoom in and out with the mouse wheel, can be seen here on the Microsoft PowerBi website:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNWE4M2M2NGYtNThhZC00YWIxLWI0NjMtZjI3N2JhOTFiMGMyIiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

The overall rate of increase does *seem* to have slowed somewhat compared to the earlier post.

If students are being tested via the NHS system I see no reason to suppose that the cases are not included in the case stats. If, however, some universities have set up their own testing using private companies that are not integrated into the NHS system - who knows?

Thanks John - this works on a Mac and an iPad. Does this replace the spreadsheet? Or have I missed a Box link?

[oddoneout]

Do they all quarantine themselves after participating in one of these?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/12/cabin-fever-tickets-for-meal-aboard-singapore-parked-plane-sell-out

[johnb]

Thanks John - this works on a Mac and an iPad. Does this replace the spreadsheet? Or have I missed a Box link?

Many apologies. I was preoccupied with other matters and didn't update the file last week. I will upload an updated file later today. (You can use the previous link to access it.

Additionally, there is the Covid-19 Case Map that I referred to in ##4076. This is now on the Microsoft PowerBi platform. It seems to work OK but I'm not totally confident of it yet - please let me know if there are any problems. The map is a bit more sluggish to respond that the other one you used, due to the additional bar chart that appears in the information pane.

Unfortunately I haven't yet worked out how to add the major city locations and names to the map. (I'll investigate further over the next week or so.)

This is the link: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrI...lmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

This is the earlier post that I referred to:

I've been cobbling things together for an interactive map where moving a mouse to an area will bring up a floating information panel and, additionally, where one can zoom in and out of the map [using the scroll wheel, and move the map around by holding down the left mouse button].

I've got it working on my PC using Microsoft's Power Bi. Now all I need to do is sort out how to share the damned thing, in an interactive format. It should be possible - if I can work my way round the obstacles.

Would this be useful?

This is a screen grab of when I zoomed in and I hovered the mouse over Bristol:

Population density decile: 10 is the highest population density
Avg Deprivation decile: 0 is the most deprived, 10 the least (as per government stats)