Coronavirus

[french frank]

There are some other rather odd arguments against Pascal's wager - if one is "allowed" to have any god. In that case one can (for example) imagine a malevolent one who will send you to eternal damnation if you believe in him/her and let you off otherwise. In that case you most certainly would lose if you decided to "believe".

No. But it's a discussion best carried out on a different thread. There used to be regular discussions on the existence of God on the old BBC messageboard - very appropriate, given the Russell-Copleston debate on the early Third Programme.

[Frances_iom]

No. But it's a discussion best carried out on a different thread....

to return to the topic - https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588 - suggests that the initial lockdown did what was required to reduce to demand on ITC beds but at the projected cost of more deaths in the long term by 2nd waves hitting us wrinklies but their rerun of the simulation with a higher R factor that better fits the actual historical data (hindsight always being the most acute) indicates that possibly there is a lower overall mortality as long as the schools are not closed - somewhat complex paper to summarise in a few words

[Bryn]

Yes - but I think someone else in this thread was advocating vitamin C, particularly for its anti-oxidant properties. Vitamin D is generally a good idea I think. The point about vitamin C is that it's low cost, and probably going to be excreted anyway.

I must admit that I do take a 100mg Vitamin C plus a dash of zinc supplement daily. That said. I do consume a lot of fruit, so I probably gain no real benefit from the Vitamin C supplement.

[Bryn]

to return to the topic - https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588 - suggests that the initial lockdown did what was required to reduce to demand on ITC beds but at the projected cost of more deaths in the long term by 2nd waves hitting us wrinklies but their rerun of the simulation with a higher R factor that better fits the actual historical data (hindsight always being the most acute) indicates that possibly there is a lower overall mortality as long as the schools are not closed - somewhat complex paper to summarise in a few words

Thanks for the precis. Saves me struggling through the item itself.

[Anastasius]

Strikes me that the lockdown of pubs, bars and restaurants is a bit of a sledgehammer. Sure, close pubs, bars, clubs etc. IMO they should never have been allowed to re-open in the first place. But restaurants ? Surely that is not a 'one-size-fits-all' scenario?>. Wagamama and places like that - most definitely as everyone is sitting hugger-mugger. But there are plenty of other restaurants that have a different business model and are able to maintain good social distancing.

[seabright]

The daily headlines are telling us that the Coronavirus cases are doubling by the week and now running into several thousands. My question is this: how many of these infected people have rigorously observed the rules, wore masks whenever they went out, washed their hands several times a day, and self-distanced the required two metres at all times. If there are any statistics that reveal that having done all those things, these people still became infected and even died, then it raises an enormous question as to the guidelines spelt out by the health experts and politicians. Can they have been as hopeless in dealing with this pandemic as many commentators, including the government-supporting press, have lately been suggesting? I think we should be told.

[Anastasius]

The daily headlines are telling us that the Coronavirus cases are doubling by the week and now running into several thousands. My question is this: how many of these infected people have rigorously observed the rules, wore masks whenever they went out, washed their hands several times a day, and self-distanced the required two metres at all times. If there are any statistics that reveal that having done all those things, these people still became infected and even died, then it raises an enormous question as to the guidelines spelt out by the health experts and politicians. Can they have been as hopeless in dealing with this pandemic as many commentators, including the government-supporting press, have lately been suggesting? I think we should be told.

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking. "I think we should be told?" Told what and by whom ?

[teamsaint]

Strikes me that the lockdown of pubs, bars and restaurants is a bit of a sledgehammer. Sure, close pubs, bars, clubs etc. IMO they should never have been allowed to re-open in the first place. But restaurants ? Surely that is not a 'one-size-fits-all' scenario?>. Wagamama and places like that - most definitely as everyone is sitting hugger-mugger. But there are plenty of other restaurants that have a different business model and are able to maintain good social distancing.

Ah, so are wagamama exempt from any distancing guidelines then ?

[Bryn]

The daily headlines are telling us that the Coronavirus cases are doubling by the week and now running into several thousands. My question is this: how many of these infected people have rigorously observed the rules, wore masks whenever they went out, washed their hands several times a day, and self-distanced the required two metres at all times. If there are any statistics that reveal that having done all those things, these people still became infected and even died, then it raises an enormous question as to the guidelines spelt out by the health experts and politicians. Can they have been as hopeless in dealing with this pandemic as many commentators, including the government-supporting press, have lately been suggesting? I think we should be told.

How would you plan to assemble the information needed to reach any useful conclusion in these matters? I would contend that even in a command economy like that in China, it would be something of a wild goose chase.

[teamsaint]

Looking at the data from the Kings app, there do seem to be signs of a flattening in the rate of increase.

[Anastasius]

Ah, so are wagamama exempt from any distancing guidelines then ?

Have you ever been to Wagamama? Bench style seating? Everyone hugger-mugger. Party-time.

[teamsaint]

Have you ever been to Wagamama? Bench style seating? Everyone hugger-mugger. Party-time.

Are they exempt ?

Seems they are complying.

https://www.wagamama.com/safety

[Anastasius]

Are they exempt ?

Seems they are complying.

https://www.wagamama.com/safety

Good point. Which makes closing restaurants all the dafter.

[Old Grumpy]

How would you plan to assemble the information needed to reach any useful conclusion in these matters? I would contend that even in a command economy like that in China, it would be something of a wild goose chase.

Probably best not to chase wild geese - they could be a vector...

[johnb]

I've been cobbling things together for an interactive map where moving a mouse to an area will bring up a floating information panel and, additionally, where one can zoom in and out of the map.

I've got it working on my PC using Microsoft's Power Bi. Now all I need to do is sort out how to share the damned thing, in an interactive format. It should be possible - if I can work my way round the obstacles.

Would this be useful?

This is a screen grab of when I zoomed in and I hovered the mouse over Bristol: