Coronavirus

[Richard Barrett]

What do you expect from ten or twelve Guardian readers who've spent thousands of hours reading and writing over 4,000 messages.
They run out of things to talk about, so start again ...

What's with the holier-than-thou attitude here? If you don't wish to take part in this conversation that's fine, but a sneer from the sidelines hardly places you above the "Guardian readers" you disdain.

[cloughie]

Poor old Michael Finnegan, begin again.

Then did you really believe that the wind was responsible for his disappearing beard?

[french frank]

I've just looked up Pascal's wager and it seems to me to be a version of 'expect/plan for the worst and hope for the best'.

For Pascal, it was one specific wager, like "Back Ghaiyyath in the 3.30." It couldn't be transferred to any other race or who will win the FA Cup, as if it were ever intended as a universal principle like Occam's Razor. It was more, "Take a punt on this because you'll have little to lose, but you stand to win bigly."

[johnb]

I thought this might (or might not) be of interest but it comes with a a whole sack load of "health warnings".

It is based on the PHE cases by specimen date published 08/10. I took the total cases for the 7 days to 04/10 and the total for the previous 7 days (to 27/09) and, using those two weeks, the calculated the days for the cases to double.

It is certainly isn't intended to give a totally accurate representation of the situation but it does indicate that the cases are growing fairly quickly over much of England, including those areas where the cases/100k is relatively low.

[LMcD]

I've just looked up Pascal's wager and it seems to me to be a version of 'expect/plan for the worst and hope for the best'.

Thank you - but I don't see the point in reading messages if I then have to spend much longer Googling to find out what they mean.

[LMcD]

Thank you - but I don't see the point in reading messages if I then have to spend ages Googling to find out what they mean.

[Bryn]

Thank you - but I don't see the point in reading messages if I then have to spend much longer Googling to find out what they mean.

Best keep the discussions here are the level of Ladybird books, eh? When, as quite often happens, I come across a phrase or concept here that I am not familiar with, I welcome the opportunity to expand the compass of my limited erudition. Hurrah for Internet search facilities such as DuckDuckGo.

[french frank]

I thought this might (or might not) be of interest but it comes with a a whole sack load of "health warnings".

So, Bristol is now in with S. Glos at 3-7 days?

[Dave2002]

I don't think Pascal's wager is unsound, and in terms of social distancing and washing hands it applies. I'm not sure even of its relevance in terms of wearing masks. A professional bookie would read Nature to set the odds.

I hesitate on this. First, Pascal's wager was suggested several centuries ago, when there were very possibly strong "societal beliefs". So what was he trying to say? Was it a comment about any god, or specifically about a Christian god? It may have been a challenge to attitudes held at the time. Also there's a peculiar logical element in so far as what constitutes a "belief". If one follows the wager, one should "believe", but is it a valid reasong for "belief" that not to do so would invalidate Pascal's wager. Was it a statement about beliefs? I don't know.

I personally don't see how one can believe something whlle at the same time not thinking it to be true, which would surely be a requirement for Pascal's wager.

[Dave2002]

I despair that people are still .... still .... banging on about face masks.

(Not a very helpful contribution to the discussion.)

I think it depends where they are to be used, and for what purpose or reason. To catch droplets from coughs and sneezes in a very confined space they almost certainly work reasonably well - or at least sufficiently better than nothing to be potentially useful. In less confined spaces or out of doors they may well have very little effect, so would simply be a form of "virtue signalling" - to use an expression which seems to have gained traction round here.

[LMcD]

Best keep the discussions here are the level of Ladybird books, eh? When, as quite often happens, I come across a phrase or concept here that I am not familiar with, I welcome the opportunity to expand the compass of my limited erudition. Hurrah for Internet search facilities such as DuckDuckGo.

Pardon me for contributing - I'll not bother you again.
Could you kindly arrange for somebody to take over the 'Free-to-air Sky Arts' thread?
Thank you

[Richard Barrett]

Best keep the discussions here are the level of Ladybird books, eh? When, as quite often happens, I come across a phrase or concept here that I am not familiar with, I welcome the opportunity to expand the compass of my limited erudition. Hurrah for Internet search facilities such as DuckDuckGo.

Isn't learning interesting stuff from one another one of the reasons why we're all here? Especially since this is going to involve an online search that lasts a fraction of a second, rather than a trip to the library or whatever. As for Pascal's wager, it has nothing to do with "believing something while at the same time not thinking it to be true". It suggests that (in this particular case) one should behave as if God exists and seek to believe in God. It doesn't matter which god. It doesn't matter whether it's a god or a face mask, the principle is the same. Is that clear now?

[oddoneout]

Thank you - but I don't see the point in reading messages if I then have to spend much longer Googling to find out what they mean.

If these were work related discussions where not understanding what someone is talking about could cause problems then I would tend to agree, but since it is a voluntary activity with the option to drop in and out then it is up to me whether I wish to follow up the not understood bit. If I don't so choose then waiting a while for things to move on will suffice.
In the same way that indiscriminate listening to R3 can lead to serendipitous discoveries, this forum can lead to equally valuable learning opportunities, easily accessed thanks to the wonders of the internet.

[teamsaint]

I think it depends where they are to be used, and for what purpose or reason. To catch droplets from coughs and sneezes in a very confined space they almost certainly work reasonably well - or at least sufficiently better than nothing to be potentially useful. In less confined spaces or out of doors they may well have very little effect, so would simply be a form of "virtue signalling" - to use an expression which seems to have gained traction round here.

I would pretty much agree with your summary Dave, particularly when most masks in used are well below medial grade , I think.
The important thing though is, to keep asking the questions about what we are being asked to do, ( and of course to follow those laws and requirements that are well thought out) in part because there may be bigger, more significant battles ahead.

[french frank]

I hesitate on this. First, Pascal's wager was suggested several centuries ago, when there were very possibly strong "societal beliefs". So what was he trying to say? Was it a comment about any god, or specifically about a Christian god?

I've checked on Lafuma ed. Pensées §418: He was specifically talking about the existence of the Christian God and consequently the possibility of eternal life after death. He acknowledged the problem Christians have in being able to produce a reason for their belief, to produce proof, and states that reason alone cannot arrive at an answer. He sets up his philosophical argument on the basis that God either exists or does not exist. This is where the wager - le pari Pascalien - comes in: assume that God exists, act as if he exists by living your life according to Christian principles. If he exists, you stand to gain everything, if he doesn't, you lose nothing.

Given that the opposing arguments are that wearing a mask is either beneficial or actually harmful in various ways, I can't see that the wager applies. This is where you are "guided by the science", which is why I said that a bookie would set his odds on wearing a mask/not wearing a mask based on what it says in Nature - 'the form book'.