Coronavirus

[Anastasius]

TS has not been an advocate of the right to cough over others.......... let alone a bakery counter. I think an apology is due.

I wasn't suggesting that he was.

[teamsaint]

Wearing a seat belt and having working airbags in a car does not guarantee that you will not be killed in an RTC. Such measures, however, do significantly reduce the risk of death. The same, plus an even greater reduction in the risk to others, should one be virus-positive, applies to the wearing of face coverings during the current health emergency.

I’m mostly interested in the risk that I might pose to others. I can mitigate my own exposure should I want to.I have been keeping a close eye on the developments in the evidence. In a way, since wearing them is compulsory, I want to be convinced of their usefulness. But so far, it seems to me, the scientific evidence is mixed at best. Which is not to say that I am anti mask in all circumstances.

An extension of this is that so much of what we are being told ( to do) is part of a narrative that consistently excludes much of the collateral damage. And it must be said that mask wearing is thought to have some negafits, such as complacency, poor mask hygiene risk etc.

[johnb]

An extension of this is that so much of what we are being told ( to do) is part of a narrative that consistently excludes much of the collateral damage....

Well, the restrictions in the Liverpool-Manchester area of the North West certainly don't appear to be working, at least not up to the w/e 1st October. Nearly all of the Local Authorities have over 200 cases/100k in that week, with Liverpool 482, Knowsley 476, Manchester 521 cases/100k.

The progression of Covid-19 is alarming, 31% of the population were living in local authorities which had over 200 cases/100k in the 7 days to 01/10/20.

I don't want to flood the forum with maps but should anyone be interested I have uploaded daily UK Cases/100k maps from w/e 16/09/20 to w/e 01/10/20 to dropbox:

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/6o8vq7oxu1c7czz/AAAOC8JkEHGEeOJ2kp3gMLoQa?dl=0

(Maps for w/e 28/09/20 on use the newly revised data which includes the "missing" 16,000 cases.)

[LMcD]

Oh Jesus...you're not still banging on about that, are you? It is very simple. If you are wearing a full mask and one up to hospital standards then that will give you an awful lot of protection. No debate there else we'd have no medical staff left in Intensive Care. If you're wearing a mask that is not up to that standard then you have 'some' protection but at least better than no mask. That is, of course assuming that you do not have Covid and are concerned about catching it.

But if you do have Covid (and are unaware) then wearing one of these masks will curtail you spraying virus droplets to all and sundry. And if you know that you do have Covid then why are you out of your house ?

So please don't be like the cretin in Waitrose the other week, who was wearing a mask but decided to pull it down to cough all over the bakery counter.

That's you told, then!
Is it true that Herr Hancock is going to limit to 6 the number of people active on the Forum at any one time?

[teamsaint]

That's you told, then!

I know, I'm now deeply ashamed that I even thought of questioning received wisdom.

Just by the by, yesterday I went on a trail run. We were requested by the organisers, (who must have more patience than we have a right to expect for putting up with all the bureaucratic hoops they had to jump through ) to wear masks between our cars and the open barn where registrations were taking place, and at every other point on the farm. We were allowed to remove them once running. It was a bit silly really.
Sadly, and no doubt because organisers are very concerned at the prospect of an easily blotted copybook, there are very few such events right now. It was absolutely brilliant to be involved in a normal event. Well if you can call running along muddy tracks and byways in persistent drizzle normal.......

[teamsaint]

That's you told, then!
Is it true that Herr Hancock is going to limit to 6 the number of people active on the Forum at any one time?

Yet another totally unnecessary restriction then.....

[DracoM]

DEffo NOT convinced by these big plastic face shields: at the bottom, open to the air......erm...and once out, those droplets circulate. End of.

[oddoneout]

DEffo NOT convinced by these big plastic face shields: at the bottom, open to the air......erm...and once out, those droplets circulate. End of.

I always thought they were intended as an addition to the face mask to provide protection to the eyes from incoming virus for the likes of dentists and medics exposed to aerosol generating procedures. For the likes of hairdressers using them instead of masks it seems to me that all they do is channel exhaled material directly towards the customer at close quarters.

[oddoneout]

Well if you can call running along muddy tracks and byways in persistent drizzle normal.......

Judging by those I see doing just that when I venture onto the common it is normal - but we all define normal differently don't we... It certainly seems more sensible than those I see in the town centre gym getting their exercise fix.
And just slightly off topic, I was amused to see that a small office in said gym has been set up by two chaps offering Wills and Estate Planning services.

[Dave2002]

The laughable part of the recent farrago is that apparantly PHE was using Excel to import the csv files containing the test data.

No problem - apart from the fact that the version of Excel they were using had a row limit of 65,536 (i.e. it must have been pre-Excel 2007) so they "lost" the rows in the csv file beyond row 65,536.

I regularly use Excel 2003 myself and know that if you try to import a csv file with more than 65,536 rows a warning comes up - so they must have either ignored the warning or (possibly) were using a macro which ignored this type of error.

Nobody in their right mind would use Excel in a production or automated system, unless they had to make a "lash up" or a prototype at very short notice. Excel in its various forms can be a very useful tool, but it's not robust enough for large scale use, and also "user error" can lead to some very unexpected results - by people who aren't in the know. One catastrophic problem which I know had happened in some application areas is when sorting is misapplied by naive users, not realising that it's possible to jumble up all the data completely and render it meaningless.

If one has to use a tool like Excel for expediency as a short tem measure, then protocols need to be put in place to ensure that human errors (and others) don't creep in, and there is quite a high risk that things will go awry on occasions.

[muzzer]

I have to say that as someone who lives alone I find the prospect of further draconian restrictions on my ability to socialise extremely depressing. It seems to me there is no end to this government’s rampant incompetence. People’s behaviours are being affected all right, but not in ways which result in keeping the curve down. I conclude that nobody really has a clue how to manage this pandemic, and still believe that failing to take the obvious steps early on has been even more disastrous than was apparent at the time. The arrogance of these buffoons is breathtaking. It’s not the first pandemic in history, plenty of other countries have managed it better, all Britain seems to have done it seems to me is confirm its position as the laughing stock of the world it’s been working towards inexorably for most of my life.

[teamsaint]

I have to say that as someone who lives alone I find the prospect of further draconian restrictions on my ability to socialise extremely depressing. It seems to me there is no end to this government’s rampant incompetence. People’s behaviours are being affected all right, but not in ways which result in keeping the curve down. I conclude that nobody really has a clue how to manage this pandemic, and still believe that failing to take the obvious steps early on has been even more disastrous than was apparent at the time. The arrogance of these buffoons is breathtaking. It’s not the first pandemic in history, plenty of other countries have managed it better, all Britain seems to have done it seems to me is confirm its position as the laughing stock of the world it’s been working towards inexorably for most of my life.

I don't disagree with much of what you say, but plenty of other governments have done more or less as badly as ours. Cases are just as high in Spain and France, just as two examples.
We really need to be asking very serious questions about the policies being pursued, how and if they are working, what alternatives there might be, and whether we should really assume that the government's intentions are benign. If we don't ask those questions, then we are very foolish, but sadly large chunks of the media are complicit in the chaos, in a variety of ways.

Some questions :

Why aren't local lockdowns apparently working ? Badly implemented, or just a bad policy ?
Are masks really keeping infection down, ( check the numbers and the regulations in France) or are they possibly instilling a false sense of security ?
Are testing and tracing resources being properly targeted ? Should there be more focus on workplace and education establishments ?
Just how trustworthy are the test results ?
Can we do more to support self isolation and shielding, in what might be a cost effective move of resources away from general controls.
Is there too much focus on general restriction of activity, and too little on preventing really risky activity or behaviour ?
is the government really balancing the risks of Covid and non covid health issues properly ?

And so on, and so on?

As I say, just questions .

[Serial_Apologist]

I don't disagree with much of what you say, but plenty of other governments have done more or less as badly as ours. Cases are just as high in Spain and France, just as two examples.
We really need to be asking very serious questions about the policies being pursued, how and if they are working, what alternatives there might be, and whether we should really assume that the government's intentions are benign. If we don't ask those questions, then we are very foolish, but sadly large chunks of the media are complicit in the chaos, in a variety of ways.

Some questions :

Why aren't local lockdowns apparently working ? Badly implemented, or just a bad policy ?
Are masks really keeping infection down, ( check the numbers and the regulations in France) or are they possibly instilling a false sense of security ?
Are testing and tracing resources being properly targeted ? Should there be more focus on workplace and education establishments ?
Just how trustworthy are the test results ?
Can we do more to support self isolation and shielding, in what might be a cost effective move of resources away from general controls.
Is there too much focus on general restriction of activity, and too little on preventing really risky activity or behaviour ?
is the government really balancing the risks of Covid and non covid health issues properly ?

And so on, and so on?

As I say, just questions .

Well I'm starting to think that two metre social distancing was probably the best of solutions offered so far, along with masking and hand washing - it was while that was in operation that the infection numbers purportedly came down the most, and I try my best to stick with it, including when inside shops.

[oddoneout]

Well I'm starting to think that two metre social distancing was probably the best of solutions offered so far, along with masking and hand washing - it was while that was in operation that the infection numbers purportedly came down the most, and I try my best to stick with it, including when inside shops.

I happen to agree - after all to my way of thinking the more space between me and a contaminant, whether obvious or potential, the less chance of problems. I've always tried to keep away from obvious lurgy sufferers(coughs, sneezes, snot) or at the least keep my face out of the line of fire. Unfortunately, the wearing of masks seems to be seen as a substitute for, rather than an addition to, keeping a distance, by far too many people.

[LMcD]

I have to say that as someone who lives alone I find the prospect of further draconian restrictions on my ability to socialise extremely depressing. It seems to me there is no end to this government’s rampant incompetence. People’s behaviours are being affected all right, but not in ways which result in keeping the curve down. I conclude that nobody really has a clue how to manage this pandemic, and still believe that failing to take the obvious steps early on has been even more disastrous than was apparent at the time. The arrogance of these buffoons is breathtaking. It’s not the first pandemic in history, plenty of other countries have managed it better, all Britain seems to have done it seems to me is confirm its position as the laughing stock of the world it’s been working towards inexorably for most of my life.

'Lions led by donkeys' (to coin a phrase). I found the the miners' strike, the 3-day week and the IRA terror campaigns easier to cope with than the present omnishambles.