Coronavirus

[teamsaint]

I there has been significant Covid-19 prevalence in the Greater Manchester area for many weeks (perhaps, to some extent, since the end of the lockdown ). In late July Manchester, Stockport, Salford, Trafford, Bradford, Oldham, Blackburn, Rochdale, Bury etc all had case rates above 20 per 100k. One would have hoped that the Test and Trace system would have been working overtime to contain the situation. Perhaps that was always going to be impossible to achieve but it is understandable that Andy Burnham has complained bitterly about the current system.

I doubt whether everything can be attributed to one holiday maker. I've don't know when he went returned from his hols but cases in Bolton started to increase on 26th August.

It is possible that the outbreaks in South Wales and the North East were quite separate from that in the North West.

Allowing for a host of factors that will be affecting the numbers, the data for positives since mid August looks a bit odd, in the sense that we a fairly steady rise to about 1800 per day on 05/09, and a sudden rise to around 3/3.5 k where it rose gradually, until 18/09 when it jumped agai to well over 4k. Seems a bit odd, my guess would be a strategic change in testing and test availability at a couple of points.

I’m probably just paranoid .........

[johnb]

Allowing for a host of factors that will be affecting the numbers, the data for positives since mid August looks a bit odd, in the sense that we a fairly steady rise to about 1800 per day on 05/09, and a sudden rise to around 3/3.5 k where it rose gradually, until 18/09 when it jumped agai to well over 4k. Seems a bit odd, my guess would be a strategic change in testing and test availability at a couple of points.

I’m probably just paranoid .........

I'm sure you're right about testing and test availability influencing the number of confirmed cases.

I started to describe what had happened recently but then decided it would be easier to post a chart. (Apologies for yet another damned graphic.)

Overall, apart from the curious peak in early September, there has been a gradual increase - albeit with some ups and downs. There is a loose correlation with the number of tests, but there seems to be a real increase even allowing for that.

[Phileas]

. Seems a bit odd, my guess would be a strategic change in testing and test availability at a couple of points.

I’m probably just paranoid .........

ONS infection survey probably gives the most accurate indication of overall changes:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales18september2020

[johnb]

By the way, I've updated the UK "heat map" in post #3698 with today's data for the same w/e date of 16th Sept. I am using cases by specimen date so there is always a lag before the published data is reasonably representative (I was a bit premature with my first effort).

http://www.for3.org/forums/showthread.php?21399-Coronavirus&p=808921#post808921

Amongst other changes, this adds 2 more local authorities to the +100 category (Warrington and Wirral) and puts Cornwall in the 10-20 bracket.

[french frank]

So, ( asked in a genuine spirit of enquiry ! ) how does the basic tenet of the defence of individual freedom tend to manifest itself in terms of policy, in the centre ?

When I mentioned Liberals it only had a capital letter because it came at the beginning of the sentence. I was referring, more generally, to 'liberalism' defined as advocating individual rights and freedoms rather than any particular party: ideology rather than policy. But JS Mill was clear that there were always limitations to one individual's exercise of freedom in that it should never harm another individual in the process. Arguably, in matters of public health, a person flouting the rules creates a potential harm to those they necessarily come in contact with.

[Serial_Apologist]

The epicentre is the Manchester area now. Has it just been spreading out from there, including up through Scotland now? (Or has it just homed in on the Greater Manchester sprawl from outside, I wonder.) I don't think it can all be down to that Bolton holidaymaker who went on a pub crawl with his mates instead of staying in quarantine.

If it does turn out to be that one individual, being non-symptomatic, his choice would have complied with the government's request not to be tested.

[LMcD]

A concerned citizen asks:
(1) Is it technically possible to arrange for one's TV set/radio/CD player/wristwatch/washing machine/ fridge-freezer/oven/microwave/household pet/mother-in/law to emit a loud 'beep' (whether it's switched on or not) whenever there's a fresh change in government policy/advice/statistics/information? It's just that I'm scared of being less up to speed than other folk.
(2) Will the public's reaction to this morning's big announcement be more than just a witty response?
(3) What is the largest group of people that can legally be divided into groups of 6 (a) in the average pub (b) on the average beach and (c) in the average shower cubicle?
(4) Can I be arrested - possibly as result of being reported by a neighbour or passer-by - for not believing anything any politician or 'expert' says about the virus (or anything else, for that matter)?

[oddoneout]

When I mentioned Liberals it only had a capital letter because it came at the beginning of the sentence. I was referring, more generally, to 'liberalism' defined as advocating individual rights and freedoms rather than any particular party: ideology rather than policy. But JS Mill was clear that there were always limitations to one individual's exercise of freedom in that it should never harm another individual in the process. Arguably, in matters of public health, a person flouting the rules creates a potential harm to those they necessarily come in contact with.

More and more I find myself thinking "It's not all about you". A picture of a recent demonstration showed protectors holding placards, one of which read " My body, My choice, No to mandatory masks". I realise there are all sorts of arguments to be had about the efficacy of masks, the reach of state control of the people etc, but it's the basic attitude, whether from deliberate decision or ignorance, I find dispiriting.

[oddoneout]

This wouldn't help either

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/20/covid-scepticism-behind-high-bolton-infection-rate-says-local-mp

and I suspect will increasingly become a factor elsewhere, given the obvious 'muddle' (other words available...) in the government's handling of the crisis.

[teamsaint]

Paranoid people will probably approve of this article by one of the Guardian’s better opinion writers.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/21/coronavirus-government-liberties-tories-police-powers-laws

Incidentally, elsewhere in the G, it is reported that 97% of infection takes place indoors........

[LMcD]

I take the whole thing seriously, and I believe that many scientists and other experts do, but sadly the latter seem increasingly to argue among themselves, but can anybody seriously believe that the government has ever taken it seriously enough? One thing is certain - when the dust has settled and enquiries have taken place, there are 2 people who definitely WON'T be blamed!

[oddoneout]

I take the whole thing seriously, and I believe that many scientists and other experts do, but sadly the latter seem increasingly to argue among themselves, but can anybody seriously believe that the government has ever taken it seriously enough? One thing is certain - when the dust has settled and enquiries have taken place, there are 2 people who definitely WON'T be blamed!

They may not even be alive - oh what's that, you didn't mean HM and HRH?

If (big if...) inquiries do take place it will only be after a sufficiently long delay to allow all those culpable to have removed them selves into lucrative and impregnable positions elsewhere.

Experts and scientists will always argue amongst themselves and present differing conclusions and opinions; in many cases it would be more worrying if they didn't. A consensus works and doesn't need to be 100% agreement from all, but to be effective in public policy does require a modicum of understanding of the issues on the part of those making the decisions. Where that is lacking and/or is over-ridden by party political considerations rather than people and country concerns then problems arise.

[Dave2002]

I recently received a reminder about the availability of a flu vaccination. This was together with a suggestion that it is "even more important with the possibility of Covid 19" - which seemed odd to me. Given that there is apparently no connection between Covid 19 (well, there might be a slight one ..) this message seemed out of place to me.

[Bryn]

I recently received a reminder about the availability of a flu vaccination. This was together with a suggestion that it is "even more important with the possibility of Covid 19" - which seemed odd to me. Given that there is apparently no connection between Covid 19 (well, there might be a slight one ..) this message seemed out of place to me.

I think the basis for sending out this alert might just be to reduce the incidence of flu infections clogging up the NHS this winter. Seems perfectly logical to me.

[Dave2002]

I think the basis for sending out this alert might just be to reduce the incidence of flu infections clogging up the NHS this winter. Seems perfectly logical to me.

I'm not against that, but the suggestion that there is any real connection or "importance" between the approach to the diseases jarred. Maintaining effective NHS capacity for severe cases of any illness is undoubtedly something to be hoped for.