Coronavirus

[oddoneout]

I don't know what the level of impact is, but I read that students returning to uni hasn't helped the capacity of labs they were working in over the holidays?

[LMcD]

I don't know what the level of impact is, but I read that students returning to uni hasn't helped the capacity of labs they were working in over the holidays?

Our daughter has tested positive, but she was 'lucky' in one respect, because she and her colleagues were tested by, and in, the hospital where she works, and there was no need to wait for Serco to deliver the results. I don't know how widespread this practice is, but the government must do more to devolve testing where an effective local operation has been set up. I read somewhere that Exeter University has signed a deal with a private company, and I think the UEA is also making its own arrangements. Johnson's/Cummings's/Hancock's obsession with centralized control over more and more aspects of our lives must be resisted before it's too late.

[teamsaint]

Our daughter has tested positive, but she was 'lucky' in one respect, because she and her colleagues were tested by, and in, the hospital where she works, and there was no need to wait for Serco to deliver the results. I don't know how widespread this practice is, but the government must do more to devolve testing where an effective local operation has been set up. I read somewhere that Exeter University has signed a deal with a private company, and I think the UEA is also making its own arrangements. Johnson's/Cummings's/Hancock's obsession with centralized control over more and more aspects of our lives must be resisted before it's too late.

YES !! We are on the edge of a bad place

Hope your daughter is Ok, L.

[LMcD]

YES !! We are on the edge of a bad place

Hope your daughter is Ok, L.

Thank you. She informs us that she's 'virtually asymptomatic' - I'm not sure precisely what that means - but doesn't seem too concerned. She did mention iPlayer and YouTube, so it sounds as though she'll manage to spend her period of self-isolation agreeably enough!

[Dave2002]

I am beginning to wonder if all the discussion about testing and ramping it up is actually completely pointless. It seems such a mess.
I am reminded of some business games in which teams are asked to try to control some system - probably the profitability of a firm.
I participated in one of those once - it was quite fun.

However, often the behaviour of the teams is more or less completely random, with groups oscillating wildly between different inputs in the hope of controlling the mysterious X. In at least one case, there was a single change in a variable on one occasion, and then the teams spend hours, days chasing it down in the hope of controlling the output. Knowledge of what the change actually was would have brought things under control very quickly.

Then they are shown what actually happened .....

I'm not suggesting that testing is always pointless, but that it is a possibility that some people (politicians ...??) have become obsessed with this, and in fact it is having almost no effect at all.

[johnb]

The chart shows the individual Pillar 1 and 2 testing capacities together with the overall total.

Pillar 1 capacity (for those with a clinical need and health & care workers) has recently been ~82k but in the week to 14/09 there were 61k tests and the number of tests being carried out is rising. So there is little spare capacity in Pillar 1.

Pillar 2 capacity (which we rely on for community testing) more or less plateaued from mid June. It was only after the proverbial hit the fan towards the end of August that it started to increase somewhat.






I do not understand why additional capacity wasn't being developed over summer in preparation for the autumn. Complacency?

Incidentally, I understand that regular testing of care homes was only fully implemented in September. Matt Hancock said that around 100k tests are now reserved for that purpose. It is absolutely right for care homes to have those tests but that additional depend must have added greatly to the pressure on capacity that we are now experiencing.

[oddoneout]

The chart shows the individual Pillar 1 and 2 testing capacities together with the overall total.

Pillar 1 capacity (for those with a clinical need and health & care workers) has recently been ~82k but in the week to 14/09 there were 61k tests and the number of tests being carried out is rising. So there is little spare capacity in Pillar 1.

Pillar 2 capacity (which we rely on for community testing) more or less plateaued from mid June. It was only after the proverbial hit the fan towards the end of August that it started to increase somewhat.






I do not understand why additional capacity wasn't being developed over summer in preparation for the autumn. Complacency?

Incidentally, I understand that regular testing of care homes was only fully implemented in September. Matt Hancock said that around 100k tests are now reserved for that purpose. It is absolutely right for care homes to have those tests but that additional depend must have added greatly to the pressure on capacity that we are now experiencing.

Well there does seem to be a general attitude of 'something will turn up' rather than thinking ahead and getting prepared.

[gurnemanz]

Just seen a chart showing riskiest activities. I'm sticking to tennis.

[Serial_Apologist]

A neighbour informs me that the 606 jazz club in Chelsea is due to re-open. Much as I've missed gigs since January, I shan't be going to any jazz clubs.

[Petrushka]

A neighbour informs me that the 606 jazz club in Chelsea is due to re-open. Much as I've missed gigs since January, I shan't be going to any jazz clubs.

Assuming that matters remain as they are (or get worse), then this will be the first year I've not attended a concert since 1974.

[Pulcinella]

Assuming that matters remain as they are (or get worse), then this will be the first year I've not attended a concert since 1974.

I feel very lucky now to have seen three operas at the start of the year as part of Opera North's season in Leeds: Street scene, Marriage of Figaro, and Turn of the screw.
I can't imagine feeling comfortable going to the theatre/concert hall/cinema etc for quite a while yet.
York's Theatre Royal is enterprisingly planning on taking some sort of pantomime to local community centres to keep its tradition going.

[Dave2002]

Is this fake news, or real? The guy does seem persuasive, and the data looks genuine enough - https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac

[teamsaint]

Is this fake news, or real? The guy does seem persuasive, and the data looks genuine enough - https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac

Thanks Dave. Certainly an interesting watch.
First question, why was it that Sweden apparently had a soft flu season in 19/20, but the other nordic countries didn't ?
Second question : what should we make of the fairly rapidly rising hospitalisations in England ? Are they admitting cases earlier than they were at the peak , or are there genuinely more cases, or are some actually flu cases being identified as Covid?

[johnb]

Thanks Dave. Certainly an interesting watch.
First question, why was it that Sweden apparently had a soft flu season in 19/20, but the other nordic countries didn't ?
Second question : what should we make of the fairly rapidly rising hospitalisations in England ? Are they admitting cases earlier than they were at the peak , or are there genuinely more cases, or are some actually flu cases being identified as Covid?

About the second question(s):

Are they admitting cases earlier than they were at the peak?
Almost certainly, though the admission criteria are very unlikely to have changed over the last month or so, therefore the increases in Covid admissions and hospital beds is genuine IMO. A month ago admissions were averaging ~50 for England but on 15th Sept they were 194 and climbing.

Also the number of people on ventilators has doubled between late August and now.

Are some actually flu cases being identified as Covid?
Sorry but that is unlikely.

This is the explanation of what is included in the hospital admissions figures:

England data include people admitted to hospital who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to admission, and those who tested positive in hospital after admission. Inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 after admission are reported as being admitted on the day prior to their diagnosis. Admissions to all NHS acute hospitals and mental health and learning disability trusts, as well as independent service providers commissioned by the NHS are included. Data are reported daily by trusts to NHS England and NHS Improvement.

The hospital admissions, beds and ventilator numbers are probably the most accurate guide to how the Covid-19 is progressing, even though the figures lag the infections.

(The weekly ONS Infection Survey Report, due out tomorrow, should be a definitive guide but it only captures a very generalised picture for England and Wales. The sample size isn't really large enough to pick up the full effect of localised hot spots. Even the regional estimates come with very large error bars.)

[Dave2002]

This article from the Atlantic attempts to analyse what the USA has done - or not done - https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...winter/616204/

The situation in the UK is not dissimilar.

As yet I suspect we still don't really know what to do, or what should be done, or what will happen next.