Coronavirus

[teamsaint]

On the question of diktat or guidelines, what matters in the end is compliance.
In this case the government simply has to get people to buy in to its plans. Consider for example the initial response to the suggested self isolation for over 70s.

[Dave2002]

I think the Government are managing a very difficult situation rather well.

At one level I'd agree, but the attention to detail is lacking. The guidance to not visit pubs etc. will clearly have very severe financial implications for some small business owners, though it is probably the right thing to do to minimise the damage to lives and health from the disease. There is comment that this favours the insurers because they don't have to cover losses due to "advice". I suspect it's more likely to be just a cock up - pardon my language - and will eventually be put right - perhaps even tomorrow.

The dilemma about whether to go to Fidelio at the cinema tomorrow has been resolved. The ROH have cancelled the performance.

[mallard fizz]

On the question of diktat or guidelines, what matters in the end is compliance.
In this case the government simply has to get people to buy in to its plans. Consider for example the initial response to the suggested self isolation for over 70s.

[Petrushka]

On the question of diktat or guidelines, what matters in the end is compliance.
In this case the government simply has to get people to buy in to its plans. Consider for example the initial response to the suggested self isolation for over 70s.

Why do people need to wait to be told? It has been very clear which way things things are going so it's best to take note and stay ahead of the game. I really cannot believe some of the attitudes I've heard, and that includes some on here. Many people are in denial or think it doesn't apply to them, heads well and truly in the sand.

Perhaps Bojo has been telling so many lies that no-one believes him even when he's telling an approximation of the truth.

Where France is now, that's where we will be this time next week!

[LMcD]

Why do people need to wait to be told? It has been very clear which way things things are going so it's best to take note and stay ahead of the game. I really cannot believe some of the attitudes I've heard, and that includes some on here. Many people are in denial or think it doesn't apply to them, heads well and truly in the sand.

Perhaps Bojo has been telling so many lies that no-one believes him even when he's telling an approximation of the truth.

Where France is now, that's where we will be this time next week!

Can you blame us?
I meet quite a few people aged over 70 in the course of a week, and have yet to meet a single one who has ANY confidence in ANY official pronouncement on this subject. The only differences are in the vehemence of the derision with which each new confused policy shift is greeted. That doesn't mean that we won't act responsibly or fail to consider others - we haven't lived this long without developing some understanding of what needs to be done for the greater good. We would be happy to follow the official line to the letter but it becomes more confusing by the day, and the fact that the 'scientists' seem to be divided and there seems to be no generally agreed solution to the problem really doesn't help.
I wonder how many of the retired doctors and other NHS staff who have been invited to return to help out are over 70 ....

[Flay]

This is an interesting read about three states that have against all the odds kept the lid on COVID-19 so far:

https://time.com/5802293/coronavirus-covid19-singapore-hong-kong-taiwan/

[Bryn]

That's been our strength through the centuries.

Blimey, was that an echo of that BJ chap?
#
How, though, would a diktat be enforced? Frankly, I think those not following the 'guidelines' will fast become social pariahs and will fall into line or face long-term ostracism (and probably contract Covid-19, to boot).

[Pulcinella]

Blimey, was that an echo of that BJ chap?
#
How, though, would a diktat be enforced? Frankly, I think those not following the 'guidelines' will fast become social pariahs and will fall into line or face long-term ostracism (and probably contract Covid-19, to boot).

Well, in Italy, the police are fining people who are outdoors without reason.
My partner had to get a 'permission to travel' document from a policeman to be allowed to get from his rented apartment to the airport.
One might not think of Italians as a particularly compliant/obedient bunch, but in this case they are all taking the restrictions very seriously indeed.

[mallard fizz]

Frankly, I think those not following the 'guidelines' will fast become social pariahs and will fall into line or face long-term ostracism (and probably contract Covid-19, to boot).

Oh I wish I lived in a lovely neighbourhood like you

[mallard fizz]

Well, in Italy, the police are fining people who are outdoors without reason.

Fascist tendencies not gone away then? At least the trains run on time

[Dave2002]

"Every decision is liberating, even if it leads to disaster." - Elias Canetti

I found a couple of solvers for the equations for the SIR model mentioned in an earlier post.

http://math.colgate.edu/~wweckesser/solver/DiseaseSIR.shtml

with some solutions

http://math.colgate.edu/cgi-bin/DiseaseSIR.cgi?r=1.0&gamma=1.0&S0=0.995&I0=0.005&R0=0.0&duration=100&ipaddr=%3C%21--%23echo+var%3D%22REMOTE_ADDR%22--%3E

http://math.colgate.edu/cgi-bin/DiseaseSIR.cgi?r=1.5.0&gamma=1.0&S0=0.995&I0=0.005&R0=0.0&duration=100&ipaddr=%3C%21--%23echo+var%3D%22REMOTE_ADDR%22--%3E

http://math.colgate.edu/cgi-bin/DiseaseSIR.cgi?r=2.0&gamma=1.0&S0=0.995&I0=0.005&R0=0.0&duration=100&ipaddr=%3C%21--%23echo+var%3D%22REMOTE_ADDR%22--%3E

Here you need to figure out what the values for r and gamma represent.

and

https://www.public.asu.edu/~hnesse/classes/sir.html?Alpha=0.01&Beta=0.01&initialS=100&initialI=10&initialR=0&iters=500

https://www.public.asu.edu/~hnesse/classes/sir.html?Alpha=0.1&Beta=0.01&initialS=100&initialI=10&initialR=0&iters=500

https://www.public.asu.edu/~hnesse/classes/sir.html?Alpha=0.03&Beta=0.01&initialS=100&initialI=10&initialR=0&iters=500

These last three are just the same model, with different parameter values - here for parameters beta and gamma. Exploring the model does find solutions in which the infections are limited, though we may now be past the point at which that is feasible. It really does look as though keeping contacts low would have mitigated against most people getting the disease. This option may no longer be available.

You can play with the values for beta and gamma in the model above, to show different curves. Features to note are:

whether the infected population rises to a high peak.
whether the proportion infected dampens down
how many days it takes for various effects to happen

Note that in these models, the term "recovered" may not mean what we all hope.

[Joseph K]

Can you blame us?
I meet quite a few people aged over 70 in the course of a week, and have yet to meet a single one who has ANY confidence in ANY official pronouncement on this subject...

Well, it's odd considering the over-70s mostly voted for BJ.

[Dave2002]

Well, it's odd considering the over-70s mostly voted for BJ.

Maybe, but don't blame me. Actually they didn't - they voted for their MPs who may happen to belong to the CON party.

[BBMmk2]

Ah well self quarantine here we come.

[LMcD]

Well, it's odd considering the over-70s mostly voted for BJ.

As it happens, neither of us has ever voted Conservative, but we carelessly forgot to check on the voting record of our interlocutors!