Originally posted by oddoneout
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The difficulty would be in the interpretation anyway. A person who didn't want to be tested could perhaps argue reasonably that they thought they might have had a cold or flu. It would only be if they felt really ill and needed help that this would be discovered, or if they were found by a backwards link from contact tracing, in which case they could still say they were asymptomatic. -
I have been trying to get some idea of the scale of the current number of local spikes of Covid-19. The government apparently uses a criterion of 20 cases/100,000 for countries when considering whether to impose quarantine. So if I apply that measure to English local authorities this is the result
It shows a very significant, and accelerating, increase in the number of Local Authorities with over 20 weekly cases/100,000 population. However, the case stats are heavily influenced by the increase in the number of tests being carried out and, especially, by the testing that is targeted on infection hot spots, so the chart probably exaggerates the situation.
(For England as a whole, the weekly cases/100,000 has increased from a low of 7 in early July to 16 in the w/e 2nd September though much of the change will be due to increased testing.)
[Edit: chart updated with today's data (06/09/20).]Last edited by johnb; 06-09-20, 15:40.Comment
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Heaven knows, I'm not an expert, and I realize that all statistics can be interpreted in different ways - but the increase of nearly 3000 new confirmed cases in the last 24 hours must surely be cause for concern. The rolling average is now over 1600.Comment
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Concerning, but not surprising if my observations of human behaviour are to be judged by these past few weeks. Yesterday I cycled through two busy London high streets (Wandsworth and Putney), where social distancing was being contravened everywhere, and hardly anybody was wearing face masks, in or out of shops etc. I just hope I'm going to be OK - by far the majority of those out and about were in the 40 minus age range and chancing it, I guess; there were very few older.Originally posted by LMcD View PostComment
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These might be of interest
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I think we need to know who is getting the virus and if they are asymptomatic, before we draw too many conclusions.
The ONS didn't seemed overly concerned just a couple of days ago, but who knows ? Whatever the situation, the NHS needs to get back to treating serious quantities of non covid cases, and fast.I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.
I am not a number, I am a free man.Comment
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A couple of nit-picks about the first link:Originally posted by oddoneout View Post
The headline is: "Why is it that while Covid-19 cases are rising, deaths continue to fall?"
As far as I can tell, deaths are not continuing to fall but are currently plateauing at around 9 per day for the UK.
There is the section "Do hospitals have better treatments?". But it is worth pointing out that the hospital admissions in England have been hovering around 49 per day for the last three weeks so there hasn't (yet) been an increase in people going into hospital.
Having said that, the number of admissions in England for the last date published (1st Sep) was 79 but we will have to wait for further information before we can say whether that is the start of a trend upwards or just a blip.
Also the percentage of hospital admissions aged over 65 has dropped from 64% at the peak of the pandemic to 45% in w/e 26 August.Comment
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I find it more than a little ironic that initially it was us oldies who were the main cause for concern - to the point where it was suggested that anybody over 70 might be asked to stay at home for an indefinite period for the public good.Originally posted by johnb View Post
It was suggested earlier today that younger people are accounting for a greater proportion of new cases because many of the oldies who were perceived to be a threat have helpfully popped their clogs.
Given that ministers always put the best possible complexion on any news, the fact that Matt Hancock has used the words 'very worried' and 'concerning' on consecutive days doesn't exactly fill me with confidence.
It may well be the case that younger infected people will usually be less ill than their seniors, but who knows what happens to the latter when/if it's passed on to them by somebody younger?Comment
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Today's number of confirmed cases is a cause for concern IMO.
It is impossible to relate it to the number of tests processed because testing figures have only been published once a week since 20th August.Comment
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2,948 cases reported today. Not good.
This in an update of the chart I posted in #3584. It includes the data published today.
It shows a clear and alarming acceleration in the number of local authorities with weekly case rates 20 per 100,000 and higher. I don't believe that this is due to increased testing, though it will have had an influence.
Almost 25% of local authorities had case rates higher than 20 per 100k in the w/e 4th September, the latest 7 days for which reliable information is available.
I fervently hope I am wrong but I think the government risks the situation spiralling out of control, especially with schools re-opening and people being encouraged to go back to work.Last edited by johnb; 07-09-20, 15:52.Comment
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Weren't we supposed to have sent the virus packing by the end of June?Comment
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From the graphs, by 3rd September the trend on the three curves is clearly upwards. Note that curves (presumably) are not additive. The top curve includes all the cases from the lower ones, and the 2nd curve includes all the cases from the bottom one. Definitely not good.Originally posted by johnb View Post
The upward trend seems to have started before the schools went back, though maybe it’s accelerated since.
Thanks for keeping us up to date with this.Comment
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These RT interviews are a godsend in these mass media times.Originally posted by Jazzrook View PostComment
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You're not concerned they might have an agenda?Originally posted by Serial_Apologist View PostIt isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.Comment
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