Coronavirus

[johnb]

There is a recent paper from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control on "COVID-19 clusters and outbreaks in occupational settings in the EU/EEA and the UK" which concludes that Food Packaging and Processing Plants rank third in occupational settings for Covid-19 clusters, behind Long Term Care Facilities (out in front by a long way) and Hospitals.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-in-occupational-settings.pdf

[Old Grumpy]

For what?!

For digging out courgettes, perhaps?

[Serial_Apologist]

There is a recent paper from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control on "COVID-19 clusters and outbreaks in occupational settings in the EU/EEA and the UK" which concludes that Food Packaging and Processing Plants rank third in occupational settings for Covid-19 clusters, behind Long Term Care Facilities (out in front by a long way) and Hospitals.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/def...l-settings.pdf

This is another good reason for everyone to de-contaminate all their groceries on arrival home! - in my case using a solution of bleach in water, in an old hand pumped container of the sorts often now found for domestic cleaners. It only takes a couple of minutes to lay out the products, spray across the top of them and then, while drying, spreading the solution around the outside of the packagings using a kitchen towel. It's become a regular ritual - disinfect, then hands followed by face wash. House keys and face mask go into the handwash at the same time. My neighbours were most amused at my fastidiousness!

[oddoneout]

This has more information about causes of the M&S sandwich factory outbreak. It is an all too familiar story.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/16/covid-19-ms-sandwich-makers-sick-pay-self-isolated-union

[johnb]

For what?!

The BBC/PHE map to 14 August is admirably clear...

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/13EE2/production/_113943618_eng_watchlist_map_14aug-nc.png

(It tells me to cancel that holiday in Swindon)

The outbreak in Swindon was in an Iceland distribution centre. Once again a food processing site.

As far as Northampton and Northamptonshire are concerned, today's data shows a very significant drop in cases on the 12th (the latest date for which there is reliable information). They are down from 102 and 112 average cases over the two previous days to 33 and 43 cases respectively (assuming the case data isn't influenced by the "weekend factor".)

[LezLee]

Me: 'It tells me to cancel that holiday in Swindon'
You: 'The outbreak in Swindon was in an Iceland ...'
I thought my remark was incredibly witty. Never mind.

Well, I thought it was!

[Anastasius]

So Hopeless Hancock wants to try and shift the blame (although IMO he does have a point) and close PHE and start it up again in conjunction with that 'world-beating' aka CoS Test'n'Trace in a new organisation run by someone with both public and private experience. Hapless Harding is in the frame to be the boss. We are screwed. Totally. Utterly.

[johnb]

So Hopeless Hancock wants to try and shift the blame (although IMO he does have a point) and close PHE and start it up again in conjunction with that 'world-beating' aka CoS Test'n'Trace in a new organisation run by someone with both public and private experience. Hapless Harding is in the frame to be the boss. We are screwed. Totally. Utterly.

The reaction of scientists to this news is very interesting: https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...te-for-health/

[Frances_iom]

I beginning to think that BJ really wants to be King - even King of the dung hill if nothing else available - are these leaks coming from him or from DC who also wants to control decisions but not be held responsible for them which always suggests to me of the quote that power without responsibility is the prerogative of the harlot.

[johnb]

I've been having a look at the recent Covid-19 cases by age group - taking the 7 days to 21st August and comparing it with the cumulative cases to the 10th August and came up with this:



Which confirms the reports in the media that a large percentage of the confirmed cases are now in a younger age group.

However, something pretty striking emerges when the cases are expressed as the cases/million population in each age group:



(Note the different vertical axes for "Last 7 days" and "Cum". The individual values can't be compared.)

In the past the CV19 cases have been pretty evenly distributed (allowing for population numbers) between age groups 20 to 74 but increased to tragic, scandalous levels beyond that. No doubt reflecting the dire situation in care homes (and no doubt there were a great many more care home with CV19 who were never tested.

The contrast with the cases/million over the last 7 days is very marked - though we still have an increase for the over 85s.

[Cockney Sparrow]

Article in the Time today. It points to Spring Break in Florida, with younger generations relaxing markedly on precautions, and not generally suffering from the resultant infections:
"which has driven the subsequent increase in deaths [now up two to three times since the daily lows in June"
"If he is correct, then we would expect to see first a shift in the population getting infected then, a fortnight later, a rise in deaths."

- on the basis that the young don't isolate from the parents, and their parents probably don't isolate themselves from the grandparents - or none of them isolate themselves sufficiently from vulnerable people - regardless of age.
So the article suggest we may be heading the same way. Its not time for the vulnerable to let their guard down (whatever the politicians and commentators are promoting as the approach to take to get the country "back to business").

However, as always, it also points to views from other medics and scientists - views suggesting it may not prove to be like that.

[DracoM]

We will get wave after wave. This winter will be.........erm...........
Sorry to be so gloomy, but this ain't over by any stretch of the imagination.

[teamsaint]

Article in the Time today. It points to Spring Break in Florida, with younger generations relaxing markedly on precautions, and not generally suffering from the resultant infections:
"which has driven the subsequent increase in deaths [now up two to three times since the daily lows in June"
"If he is correct, then we would expect to see first a shift in the population getting infected then, a fortnight later, a rise in deaths."

- on the basis that the young don't isolate from the parents, and their parents probably don't isolate themselves from the grandparents - or none of them isolate themselves sufficiently from vulnerable people - regardless of age.
So the article suggest we may be heading the same way. Its not time for the vulnerable to let their guard down (whatever the politicians and commentators are promoting as the approach to take to get the country "back to business").

However, as always, it also points to views from other medics and scientists - views suggesting it may not prove to be like that.

I take your point, but it does depend on variables such as who is ( self) classed as vulnerable, and what kind of activities are actually putting them at any significant increased risk. And many commercial activities don’t carry increased risk, whereas further economic problems do present risk, at least for others.

[teamsaint]

I've been having a look at the recent Covid-19 cases by age group - taking the 7 days to 21st August and comparing it with the cumulative cases to the 10th August and came up with this:



Which confirms the reports in the media that a large percentage of the confirmed cases are now in a younger age group.

However, something pretty striking emerges when the cases are expressed as the cases/million population in each age group:



(Note the different vertical axes for "Last 7 days" and "Cum". The individual values can't be compared.)

In the past the CV19 cases have been pretty evenly distributed (allowing for population numbers) between age groups 20 to 74 but increased to tragic, scandalous levels beyond that. No doubt reflecting the dire situation in care homes (and no doubt there were a great many more care home with CV19 who were never tested.

The contrast with the cases/million over the last 7 days is very marked - though we still have an increase for the over 85s.

Thanks John. A couple of points.
Young people in many cases live in their own age group bubble, and anecdotally vulnerable family members are often still cautious about contact.
Also, the graph confirms my suspicion( purely from personal observation) that 60 somethings seem to be the most risk averse group.

[Cockney Sparrow]

I take your point, but it does depend on variables such as who is ( self) classed as vulnerable, and what kind of activities are actually putting them at any significant increased risk. And many commercial activities don’t carry increased risk, whereas further economic problems do present risk, at least for others.

Have to say the first shop I set foot in after lockdown (food shopping strictly not my concern) was Waterstones where I was delighted to find Stephen Johnson's book on Mahler's 8th. (Ashamed to say I have yet to open it).

Public health directors can't win - exhorted to invoke restrictions only where the data supports the need, they do it by wards rather than entire local authority. Then (perhaps some disingenuously?) I hear vox pops on the radio people saying "I'm confused, my relative on the other side of town doesn't have to......" As though 90% of people aren't capable of doing an internet search of their local authority advice/requirements.

A final random thought - whilst I'm in depressive considerations mode. As expected, I'm expecting no return to singing before vaccination or the virus playing itself out. Slipped Disc's headline: "Breakthrough as UK scientists say singing is no riskier than ordering a drink" . I thought that's not what I saw on Newsnight?
But when you read it:

"UPDATE: Some more from the Bristol team:

While singing does not produce very substantially more aerosol than speaking at a similar volume. The researchers discovered that there is a steep rise in aerosol mass with increase in the loudness of the singing and speaking, rising by as much as a factor of 20-30.

Musical organisations could consider treating speaking and singing equally, with more attention focused on the volume at which the vocalisation occurs, the number of participants (source strength), the type of room in which the activity occurs (i.e. air exchange rate) and the duration of the rehearsal and period over which performers are vocalising."

I wonder if the original material was read.