Coronavirus

[teamsaint]

Probably wasn't this article about Pakistan - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-success-story

I'm not too fond of the Spectator - since it was happy to publish "articles" by the current PM - not all of them serving any useful purpose other than to himself perhaps.

It would be interesting to know which article it was, though.

The Ross Clark article.

https://www.spectator.co.uk

[Jazzrook]

Probably wasn't this article about Pakistan - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-success-story

I'm not too fond of the Spectator - since it was happy to publish "articles" by the current PM - not all of them serving any useful purpose other than to himself perhaps.

It would be interesting to know which article it was, though.

Ross Clark, who wrote the article, is one of the group of rightwing "journalists" that congregate around The Spectator magazine(chairman, Andrew Neil).

JR

[french frank]

The Ross Clark article.
https://www.spectator.co.uk

Ross Clark seems to have a thing about this. I'm not sure what his qualifications are to pronounce on the matter but as a free market libertarian (Wikipedia) I assume he just wants to get on with opening up the economy and getting back to normal.

PS What Jazzrook said.

[teamsaint]

Of course there is always a “ side” to presenting statistics. And of course the Spectator has a very specific position in the market.

But I don’t see much serious discussion of the actual current situation around infections, deaths, the disastrous situation on non covid deaths , or the almost impossible task of interpreting the data for the ordinary person, in the liberal media, sadly.

Calls for ever tighter lockdown,when the negative effects of the original lockdown are becoming all too obvious, ( if we actually look beyond the geadlines) are not a good enough response.

I’m interested in trying to get a handle on what is really going on.

[teamsaint]

Ross Clark seems to have a thing about this. I'm not sure what his qualifications are to pronounce on the matter but as a free market libertarian (Wikipedia) I assume he just wants to get on with opening up the economy and getting back to normal.

PS What Jazzrook said.

He was pointing towards the facts that hospital admissions, deaths in hospita from covid, and numbers in hospital being treated for it, are very low indeed right now.

He might usefully have mentioned that non covid deaths are a very significant portion of the excess deaths in recent months.

[Cockney Sparrow]

.........I’m interested in trying to get a handle on what is really going on...........

I'm not inclined to place my trust in the Spectator or Telegraph. In my reading the irresponsible neglect of our preparation for a Pandemic, and the rundown of the NHS (preparation for sector by sector privatisation?) and local public health services mean that in the face of the likely reproduction on 23 March the government had a choice between responsibility for 500,000 deaths or an unknown effect of detriment from the services displaced.

Pointing to low rates of hospital admission is testament to the success of efforts in the previous 3 /more weeks. Criticised if action is successful, damned if the infection is let rip - we are still unprepared, with Test and Trace still woefully inadequate.

Seems we can't expect to eradicate Covid 19 (pace Auckland NZ lockdown today) so the strategy has to be dampening / asphyxiating outbreaks where they occur with degrees of local lockdowns. So, today I'm reading warnings to Oldham residents from the Councillors & PH teams - unless the residents up the precautions, closure of pubs, etc will be necessary. No easy blanket answers, but a need to accept local or wider responses. I also read, however, that biggest fear of the Cummings/Johnson administration is of a severe outbreak over winter with the invidious choice of deaths or annihilation of the economy.

Would that we had the leaders up to the task, but given that Johnson emerged from the pages of the Telegraph and Spectator, I'd rather look elsewhere if its not to be Johnson and his Brexit band - who, whichever way I look at it, hold the levers of power and delivery of services.

[Dave2002]

I found this Spectator article, by Lionel Shriver - more to my taste - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...en-so-oversold

I’m not sure that it makes sense to trivialise the disease though - just because the infection and death rates in the UK are now moderately low.

[teamsaint]

There is a difference between reading an article and judging its contents, and placing my trust in that particular outlet.

I certainly don’t do that with any newspaper or magazine. They all major on divisive material, and pandering to their core market.

[teamsaint]

Pointing to low rates of hospital admission is testament to the success of efforts in the previous 3 /more weeks. Criticised if action is successful, damned if the infection is let rip - we are still unprepared, with Test and Trace still woefully inadequate.

Looking at covid stats in isolation is unhelpful at this stage. Low rates of admissions may be due to lockdown efforts, but whatever the reasons, the situation is complex. And the media are in the main failing to present the current state of the crisis in context, eg the increase in new infections recorded being substantially down to increased testing.
And importantly, the negative effects of lockdown,including huge numbers of current and future non covd deaths, are , in my opinion, being under reported.

[Dave2002]

A view of Japan - now reconsidering strategy - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ead-everywhere

[Cockney Sparrow]

Looking at covid stats in isolation is unhelpful at this stage. Low rates of admissions may be due to lockdown efforts, but whatever the reasons, the situation is complex. And the media are in the main failing to present the current state of the crisis in context, eg the increase in new infections recorded being substantially down to increased testing.
And importantly, the negative effects of lockdown,including huge numbers of current and future non covd deaths, are , in my opinion, being under reported.

TS - maybe I should have posted without a quote of your post, but I would still have expressed my vote of no confidence in anything coming from the Spectator/Telegraph (I won't go on other than to say there is a whole wing of the press so debased.......).

I take your point, and its a fair question to pose. Thankfully "More or Less" is back on radio 4 this morning. Perhaps the question of counterbalancing harms should be posed to the programme. If only the rigorous enquiry so clearly expressed was a daily feature somewhere else on the BBC. A half hour of well researched, considered, clearly expressed interpretation of the evidence. Although I do think I have seen the BBC endeavouring to report extensively and fairly.

One programme on the subject - The Briefing Room (9 May) "Coronavirus and the economy"

"What damage are the pandemic and lockdown doing to the economy and what could happen next? "
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000hvtj

[LMcD]

A view of Japan - now reconsidering strategy - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ead-everywhere

Our son lives in Tokyo, and confirms much of what this article says. Rather worryingly, the aged in-laws live in Hokkaido. He reports that the Mayor of Tokyo is much praised, while the Prime Minister is much criticized. The central government has only just set up a Covid database, having relied for months on a fax machine (!)

[johnb]

Looking at covid stats in isolation is unhelpful at this stage. Low rates of admissions may be due to lockdown efforts, but whatever the reasons, the situation is complex. And the media are in the main failing to present the current state of the crisis in context, eg the increase in new infections recorded being substantially down to increased testing.
And importantly, the negative effects of lockdown,including huge numbers of current and future non covd deaths, are , in my opinion, being under reported.

Complex it certainly is.

Is the overall level of infections increasing or not?

When expressed as a rate per 100,000 tests processed it doesn't seem to be increasing but the latest ONS survey report concludes otherwise.

One problem is that the government is no longer publishing the number of people tested but it turns out that this can be gleaned from the weekly Test and Trace reports, albeit with a delay and only by week.

If you extract the figures from those reports you get the following for England, which is almost certainly a better guide than cases/processed tests.



This indicates that there has been a genuine increase in the overall level of infection since mid July. The decrease in the Pillar 1 % (hospitals, etc) being more than made up for with an increase in the Pillar 2 percentage (testing for the general public and care homes via drive through centres, mailed out kits, etc).

(Admittedly there is the argument that if you massively increase the numbers of people tested in areas with high levels of infection you will get more positives - that is why the ONS survey is important.)

However, this is only an average over the whole nation. We have, of course, very significant different levels of infection between the various regions and between the various conurbations.

(Post is prompted by listening to today's "More or Less" discussion, then searching for how Christina Pagel got her figures for people tested. I found the answer in a post she made on twitter.)

[Dave2002]

Trying to understand immunology

I found this which attempts to explain some of the interactions between bodies and pathogens - https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ystery/614956/

Some of this appears to make sense. I don't find the "joke" at the start at all funny - but maybe it is to some people.

[Bryn]

2 metres just not far enough to escape live virus aerosols:

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/a-smoking-gun-infectious-coronavirus-retrieved-from-hospital-air/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=owned_echobox_f&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1597185195