Coronavirus

[oddoneout]

Where do the numbers come from? Also, which date is it?

Need a source reference for credibility.

One notion, re heat and coronavirus may have gone out of the window, now that we see that Iran under reported by a factor of around 10, so the low number of deaths and cases in a hot country doesn’t look so “obvious” now.

I read quite some time ago that doubt was being/had been cast on the beneficial effect of heat, as I remember thinking 'oh great, no respite before winter and its attendant woes'. There was an assumption that this virus would follow the seasonality pattern of flu before presumably it was realised what a different beastie it is, and the idea hung on but with the idea/hope that better weather meant less being cooped up in unhealthy environments with lots of other folk which of course is also a factor in the 'normal' winter flu epidemics.

[johnb]

https://scontent-lht6-1.xx.fbcdn.net...8f&oe=5F50EAB8

Where do the numbers come from? Also, which date is it?

Need a source reference for credibility.

One notion, re heat and coronavirus may have gone out of the window, now that we see that Iran under reported by a factor of around 10, so the low number of deaths and cases in a hot country doesn’t look so “obvious” now.

There are a few things worth mentioning about those figures.

The only date that the DHSC/PHE reported deaths for the UK as 120 was on 31/07. It is high in comparison with the deaths on surrounding dates, which presumably is why the journalist used it - to make a point. (The 7 day average at that time was 63.)

The deaths that the journalist used for the other countries don't tally with the figures collated by Johns Hopkins - but even so the UK figure is still by far the highest, even when using the Johns Hopkins data.

But, the DHSC/PHE figure is problematic - or rather, the figure included for England (which is calculated by PHE) is problematic. Rather than write a long spiel, suffice it to say that the DHSC/PHE figures for England are markedly higher than those reported by the ONE. (The ONS deaths are those where Covid-19 is on the death certificate, whether or not there has been a positive test.)

This is an update of a previously posted chart. It clearly shows the difference between the DHSC/PHE and the ONS and Hospital figures for England.



(Sorry for a rather tedious post.)

[johnb]

I mentioned in post #3372 that the download for "cases by local authority by date" was no longer available on the gov.uk website.

After digging around in Firefox I unearthed the download URL (i.e. the URL that the browser uses when you click on a download link) that I had previously used to download the csv files, . ... and it still works when used directly in the browser URL bar.

[Cockney Sparrow]

....... It is high in comparison with the deaths on surrounding dates, which presumably is why the journalist used it - to make a point.......
......
..... The deaths that the journalist used for the other countries don't tally with the figures collated by Johns Hopkins - but even so .....

At least Carl Heneghan isn't a journalist .

[Globaltruth]

I mentioned in post #3372 that the download for "cases by local authority by date" was no longer available on the gov.uk website.

After digging around in Firefox I unearthed the download URL (i.e. the URL that the browser uses when you click on a download link) that I had previously used to download the csv files, . ... and it still works when used directly in the browser URL bar.

so...will the spreadsheet be maintained? No pressure - and, if you chose to, perhaps you could update less regularly and post here when you had?

[johnb]

so...will the spreadsheet be maintained? No pressure - and, if you chose to, perhaps you could update less regularly and post here when you had?

Yes, I intend to do that - especially if others find it useful.

I've been setting up Access to simplify and speed up producing updates.

I'll post a belated link to the file for w/e 31/07 later today and will then aim at producing a weekly update on Tuesday/Wednesday.

[johnb]

The new government dashboard surely gives you all you need:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Can't think why you might want more

For many people that might well be the case, but it depends on what information you are looking for.

Take one example: say if you are interested in a Local Authority - all you get on the Dashboard is the cumulative number of cases and the cumulative cases/100,000, which is of very limited use. It tells you nothing about the current situation or what has happened over recent weeks, etc.

You might point to the download button for the "Cases by Area" section - surely that will provide the information. But no - all that gives is the cumulative cases and rates, day by day, for the UK as a whole.

IMO the redesigned Dashboard is an improvement on the old version even though it is a touch superficial. The other nations of the UK have had better and more detailed equivalents for some time.

IMO There is still a need for the detailed cases by LA/Region by date data that was previously available as a download.

[johnb]

so...will the spreadsheet be maintained? No pressure - and, if you chose to, perhaps you could update less regularly and post here when you had?

I've uploaded a update which goes up to w/e 31/07 (apologies for the delay).

I've also added the population data and a column for cases per 100k for the final week.

Additionally I've set up selection criteria boxes and auto-filter so that you can optionally display only those areas that meet the criteria.

Please read the "Notes" sheet.

It might be a bit clunky - let me know what you think.

https://app.box.com/s/73v0xovyiicpqfkurz9v8xkd3te5r6aa

[Dave2002]

Yes, I intend to do that - especially if others find it useful.

Please do and thank you. I don’t think I can contribute with numbers now, though I watch the Scottish scene with some interest. A new lockdown in Aberdeen, and schools going back - somehow - next week. Many people are invading Scotland right now, which for once has had really nice weather today. Some (many) of the incoming holidaymakers are playing fair, but some are wild camping in places that they shouldn’t, and leaving litter and human excrement in waterways/ditches.

[teamsaint]

So it seems that the toll of non covid excess deaths so far during the pandemic is well over 10,000.

Not a figure that seems to have ben terribly well publicised. Pretty shocking.

[Dave2002]

So it seems that the toll of non covid excess deaths so far during the pandemic is well over 10,000.

Not a figure that seems to have ben terribly well publicised. Pretty shocking.

Sorry, I'm not keeping up here - is that based on the tables etc., or on some other data source?

If the non covid excess deaths are over 10,000 is that in a very short time period, or is it over four or more months?

Is there any kind of breakdown of what those non covid excess deaths are? I can only speculate that maybe cancer and heart attack deaths would have increased, due to lack of timely medical attention, suicides may have gone up, but one would perhaps hope that road accidents would have gone down - at least for part of the pandemic period. Industrial accidents - not sure.

[teamsaint]

Sorry, I'm not keeping up here - is that based on the tables etc., or on some other data source?

If the non covid excess deaths are over 10,000 is that in a very short time period, or is it over four or more months?

Is there any kind of breakdown of what those non covid excess deaths are? I can only speculate that maybe cancer and heart attack deaths would have increased, due to lack of timely medical attention, suicides may have gone up, but one would perhaps hope that road accidents would have gone down - at least for part of the pandemic period. Industrial accidents - not sure.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/06/nhs-shutdown-risks-thousands-of-deaths-in-covid-19-second-wave

Those excess non covid deaths are England only. What a shambles.

Re Road deaths, they are a really very small part of the overall mortality rate.

[teamsaint]

Just 20 people admitted to hospital yesterday.
I wonder if the current infections are tending to hit younger healthier people ?

[french frank]

I wonder if the current infections are tending to hit younger healthier people ?

I imagine so, given that it appears that younger, healthier people are more likely to go out and about (and ignore the guidelines) while older people are still cautious about going out.

[Frances_iom]

Just 20 people admitted to hospital yesterday.
I wonder if the current infections are tending to hit younger healthier people ?

In many places it's the opening of pubs with indoor drinking (+ also I suspect large gatherings of the young such as raves with inherent close contacts) that have pushed the increase - if all 20-30 year olds lived together then herd immunity would start to apply but they don't - they live with parents or even older relatives thus one infected youngster who may well be asymptomatic or very little affected can infect older relatives who move in different social circles - the hospital admissions will follow several days later.