Coronavirus

[LeMartinPecheur]

I'd be happy enough to have a split of this thread into medical/research/development and social/economic/political consequences of Covid 19 if that's what people want.

[Dave2002]

Here is another medical/science view on immunity - https://www.forbes.com/sites/william...-for-a-vaccine

Not particularly encouraging.

[teamsaint]

Since excess deaths are now negative, and have been for about a month , and some people are still dying of/ with covid 19, what is the explanation for the negative excess deaths. Was there a spike in some other cause of drath this time last year? Or has the pandemic hastened the death of many vulnerable people who would likely have died in the last two months in any case?
I haven’t seen any attempt to explain this in the media.

https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html#comparisons-to-other-measures-of-excess-deaths-in-england

Edit. By far the biggest negative excess mortality for last month is in the over 85s both male and female. I think this suggests that the supposition above is broadly correct.

[Cockney Sparrow]

Since excess deaths are now negative, and have been for about a month,
..........Or has the pandemic hastened the death of many vulnerable people who would likely have died in the last two months in any case? I haven’t seen any attempt to explain this in the media.

I think I have heard /read comment to that effect - possibly from Prof Spiegelhalter or Carl Heneghan. Given that infections and then deaths in the first months were disproportionately experienced by nursing/care home residents.

[teamsaint]

I think I have heard /read comment to that effect - possibly from Prof Spiegelhalter or Carl Heneghan. Given that infections and then deaths in the first months were disproportionately experienced by nursing/care home residents.

I can’t remember where I read it, ( I think Vinteuil may have linked it) but early on there was a report that suggested that the greatest effect would be to hasten the demise of vulnerable older people by up to 6 months. But as I say, I can’t recall more than that.

[oddoneout]

I can’t remember where I read it, ( I think Vinteuil may have linked it) but early on there was a report that suggested that the greatest effect would be to hasten the demise of vulnerable older people by up to 6 months. But as I say, I can’t recall more than that.

Sadly I think there will have been elderly people who will have just stopped living. Someone without family and friends, already finding life a struggle, may just have given up in the face of the difficulties. There will be health issues that might be deemed the cause of death and will appear on the death certificate, but that won't tell the whole story.

[eighthobstruction]

Sadly I think there will have been elderly people who will have just stopped living. Someone without family and friends, already finding life a struggle, may just have given up in the face of the difficulties. There will be health issues that might be deemed the cause of death and will appear on the death certificate, but that won't tell the whole story.

yep i reckon i'm on the way out....

[Dave2002]

Now we've had a sort of apology from BJ in his interview with LK, but the sophistry in his argument is apparent. Sure, asymptomatic cases make a difference, and that wasn't known for really quite a long while, but at the start and before the lockdown period there would have been no obvious way to take those into account. The arguments - based on modelling - for an earlier lockdown would have applied with or without knowing about asymptomatic transmission.

[Dave2002]

Exercise - measurable reduction in physical strength

Now we have another thread - one for social and other aspects resulting from coronavirus, I find I have to decide which one to use for this post!

Yesterday we decided to go for a walk. This wasn't quite a local walk - we actually drove about 7-8 miles in order to do a circular walk on the flat. The local walks round where we live now can be difficult - with one being up a rather steep hill, which has one huffing and puffing towards the top. In order to counter the effects of lack of exercise we bought an exercise bike - the purpose of which I may not have understood fully. I assumed that these would be good for maintaining muscle strength, but it seems that they may be more significant for cardio-vascular workouts.

The exercise bike was not a terrible idea, and has probably helped to stave off the worst of being relatively inactive for a long period. We didn't buy it specifically because of lockdown - we were already thinking of this beforehand as a way of getting some exercise when it is raining, and other forms of exercise are either impossible or not so pleasant. Additionally, swimming has been off the menu for some time even before coronavirus hit, as there have been problems with local pools and some were shut for maintenance for extended periods - which of course have now been prolonged.

So - to return to yesterday's walk. We actually found that we couldn't do the full circular tour, and decided to take a short cut back. We'd never done that walk before so we don't know what it would have been like six months or a year ago, but we still had a feeling that lack of activity has had an effect on our stamina, and ability to walk even a few miles. Unlike some of our friends, we are not fitness fanatics, but here was a challenge which we clearly couldn't do easily, thus giving us a sort of yardstick by which to measure our deteriorating physical state. The exercise bike had probably not provided enough "protection" against the lack of general physical activity - not even anything obviously "exercise", but simply walking around towns and shops, though perhaps if we hadn't had it, things would have been worse.

I think we're going to have to schedule this and other walks into our lives from now on, in order to try to build up some strength which has dissipated over the last few months. I don't think this should be too difficult or impossible, but the outing yesterday did give us a warning that we need to do more.

As exercise has an effect on physical health, I've decided to put this post in the original thread.

[eighthobstruction]

....This Utube is handy; From British Heart Foundation ....there are 5 others I believe, but it does show, and I have used them successfully, that even sitting in a chair you can be benefiting your fitness....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZvl...ature=youtu.be

[Dave2002]

Coronavirus does not seem to have gone away, and there are new outbreaks in areas which seemed to be virus free.

The US is still experiencing about 1000 deaths per day - https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/28/h...day/index.html

Some easing up is maybe a good thing, but there are still significant dangers ahead.

[Serial_Apologist]

Coronavirus does not seem to have gone away, and there are new outbreaks in areas which seemed to be virus free.

The US is still experiencing about 1000 deaths per day - https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/28/h...day/index.html

Some easing up is maybe a good thing, but there are still significant dangers ahead.

Boris Johnson and his chums really do appear to fear Spain signals a second round of Coronavirus - hence the over-reaction, which one newspaper headed "A Kick in the Balearics", nicking the title which I thought up and had been wondering how to introduce to the forum.

[DracoM]

<< there are still significant dangers ahead.>>

We may well still be saying this same time next year.

[Dave2002]

Boris Johnson and his chums really do appear to fear Spain signals a second round of Coronavirus - hence the over-reaction, which one newspaper headed "A Kick in the Balearics", nicking the title which I thought up and had been wondering how to introduce to the forum.

Much as I am not a fan of BJ et al, this isn't necessarily an over reaction. It's a bit early to tell.

[LMcD]

After an exhaustive research process, I've come up with my own 4-step plan for coping with the Covid crisis - I say 'my own', but anybody and everybody is of course free to try it.
1) Don't believe anything any politician says - the odds are that they don't know what they're talking about, or fail (or choose, for policy-related reasons) to understand what they know or have been told.
2) Be very wary of any statement by any public health official or scientific 'expert' - it's not their job to make public pronouncements while appearing alongside government apologists, and when they do their advice is unlikely to be listened to if the politicians don't agree with what they say, fail to understand it or deliberately distort it. The repeated disagreements and changes of mind of and among these people sadly confirm the need for such caution on the part of the general public. The above also goes for all the statistics, the presentation of which would, in a different context, be labelled 'confusion marketing'.
3) If you can, find a 'public figure' whose views and knowledge you feel you can trust - Ros Altmann and Hugh Pym, for example. This will help when you proceed to step 4.
4) Trust your own judgement in order to behave responsibly on the basis of your own interpretation of the situation, following the rules in the light of your own experience and that of people personally known to you.
A practical example: I have some newsletters to deliver and subscriptions to collect. I shall pop the newsletters through members' letter-boxes together with a note asking them to in turn pop their subscription through mine -they all live within a 5-minute walk of my house. I shall in turn deliver their new membership cards to them (using the same envelope in each case).
Simples!