Coronavirus

[DracoM]

What is driving me round the bend is the NON-STOP statements / questions /oooh isn't it strange etc etc etc about isolation / social distancing etc on EVERY damned programme, every sports relay / commentary,

FGS, We KNOW, we KNOW.....they are reporting it as if everything was happening on Saturn and we need to be told about this strange, unreal, other-worldly new experience........etc........yes...actually, mate.................>>>>>>>>

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> FGS, We KNOW, we KNOW..

[Bryn]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brains-idUKKBN24837S?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A%20Trending%20Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1M55BxNu4_efuclOT5zF99qOkOdzCTtojkKCtQkys0g2nuALLNcrwddCE

[oddoneout]

What is driving me round the bend is the NON-STOP statements / questions /oooh isn't it strange etc etc etc about isolation / social distancing etc on EVERY damned programme, every sports relay / commentary,

FGS, We KNOW, we KNOW.....they are reporting it as if everything was happening on Saturn and we need to be told about this strange, unreal, other-worldly new experience........etc........yes...actually, mate.................>>>>>>>>

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> FGS, We KNOW, we KNOW..

I was going to say 'then don't watch/listen' but then realised the limitations. I don't watch the news, or listen to any other than the headlines on R3 if the radio is on at those times, and such TV as I watch is largely devoid of any CV-19 reference due to being of pre crisis origin, so I'm not subjected to the 'real-time' barrage you mention from wanting to keep track of the likes of sports coverage. The constant trails on R3 are more than enough irritation for me so I feel for you. There's always been this drive to fill airtime with noise of some kind regardless of quality, relevance or necessity, and I suppose CV-19 has become convenient and reflex now.

[Dave2002]

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2248216-why-hasnt-the-uk-seen-a-second-wave-of-the-coronavirus/

I just read about problems in some other countries - in National Geographic Magazine. In India, the advice about social distancing and washing hands doesn't work well in villages of very poor people who only have one tap, and probably not enough soap either. Immediate survival is more important - so they just "do what they can" - which may not be very much. Maybe the same problems also exist in other countries, such as some in Africa.

[LHC]

I'm not sure its the singing itself which is the problem. Like you, I miss my rehearsals and performances, and I wonder when and under what circumstances I will sing again. This issue was discussed in "Music Matters" (11:45 4 July, R3) - Sarah Connolly indicating there is urgently needed research underway now in the UK.

Last year I went to a talk about air pollution - especially vehicle related. The scientist related how for a long, long time, they didn't realise very small particles were just as or more pernicious than larger particles on which they had focussed research and recommendations for policy. And that around motorways there could be these verys small particles suspended in the air over a large area - kilometres. Only significant wind speeds would disperse/move them.

This news today doesn't seem encouraging -
"The potential for Covid-19 to spread through airborne transmission by lingering in the air is being underplayed by the World Health Organization, a group of scientists have said."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...say-scientists

Which the WHO has today acknowledged, whilst stressing that droplets are still likely to be the main means of transmission.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...navirus-spread

Protection from highly effective masks might be possible in crowded environments for essential needs - medical treatment etc but this places entertainment, dramatic and musical performance in crowded/interior locations in question again. There was a discussion with a scientist about this with suggestions how to amend our environments and behaviours in this World Service programme last night - from 01:00 (the first minute) for about 6 minutes
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172x18tdnflqfz

There has been concern about choirs since early on, when particular choirs appeared to be a significant source of transmission. However, Public Health England are undertaking tests with Salisbury Cathedral Choir to test whether or not it is safe to sing in church.

https://www.classicfm.com/music-news/coronavirus/safety-of-singing-salisbury-cathedral-choir-rehearsal-tested-lab-conditions/

[Serial_Apologist]

https://www.newscientist.com/article...e-coronavirus/

I just read about problems in some other countries - in National Geographic Magazine. In India, the advice about social distancing and washing hands doesn't work well in villages of very poor people who only have one tap, and probably not enough soap either. Immediate survival is more important - so they just "do what they can" - which may not be very much. Maybe the same problems also exist in other countries, such as some in Africa.

Given that The West has always, since colonialism, milked Third World countries of any indigenous capacity to grow their own wealth and their own criteria thereof, this truly is a case of what goes round, comes around.

[Dave2002]

Given that The West has always, since colonialism, milked Third World countries of any indigenous capacity to grow their own wealth and their own criteria thereof, this truly is a case of what goes round, comes around.

Indeed.

Rereading my previous post, I should emphasise that when I wrote "only have one tap" I meant for the whole village, not one household!

[johnb]

For the last two days I've been struck be the large difference between the UK deaths announced by the government and the hospital deaths in England. So today I've had a look at the figures:

Today's figures for covid confirmed deaths:

Government announced deaths: 126
Hospital Deaths - England: 42

Deaths in Scotland: 1
Deaths in NI: 0
Deaths in Wales: 2 estimate (today's data not available but it has been between 0 and 2 for the past few days, so let's guess at 2)

This gives the figure for England as 123 deaths (126 - 1 - 2)

Deducting the figure for hospital deaths in England leaves 84 non-hospital deaths in England.

So either there is still a very significant problem in care homes which are contributing 2/3 of the deaths in England (on this day) or PHE have been making historical corrections (but those usually lower the UK deaths).

Worth keeping an eye on this.

[johnb]

The data files on the government Covid-19 website take a bit of sorting (or using pivot tables) to get the information into a useful order or format but I've been having a look at the Covid-19 tests included in

- Pillar 1 testing (swab tests in hospitals etc processed by NHS/PHE England labs)
- Pillar 2 testing in person (swab tests in drive through centres etc)
- Pillar 2 tests sent out (posted testing kits)

- excluding Pillar 3 tests (antibody tests) and Pillar 4 tests (swab tests for survey data) even though these are included in the figures announced by the government



The solid colours are the tests that have actually been processed.

As you can see, the number of processed swab tests (excluding those for national survey purposes) very rarely gets to 100,000 a day.

The hatched part of the bars represent the swab tests that have been "made available" but which have not been processed. These are almost certainly Pillar 2 kits that have been posted out but never returned or processed.

(The solid green and the hatched green represent the posted out kits that have and have not been processed.)

Proviso: I've taken the data "as is". However there will be a delay of a few days between sent out test kits being issued and them being returned and processed which I haven't allowed for. Never the less the chart gives a reasonably good idea of the situation.

(Hopefully I haven't cocked this up.)

[Globaltruth]

For the last two days I've been struck be the large difference between the UK deaths announced by the government and the hospital deaths in England. So today I've had a look at the figures:

Today's figures for covid confirmed deaths:

Government announced deaths: 126
Hospital Deaths - England: 42

Deaths in Scotland: 1
Deaths in NI: 0
Deaths in Wales: 2 estimate (today's data not available but it has been between 0 and 2 for the past few days, so let's guess at 2)

This gives the figure for England as 123 deaths (126 - 1 - 2)

Deducting the figure for hospital deaths in England leaves 84 non-hospital deaths in England.

So either there is still a very significant problem in care homes which are contributing 2/3 of the deaths in England (on this day) or PHE have been making historical corrections (but those usually lower the UK deaths).

Worth keeping an eye on this.

Thank you johnb.
Totally agree with keeping an eye on this and hope you’ll continue to post the facts in such a clear manner.

The testing data is also useful - sadly there seems to be nobody holding the governments feet to the fire with respect to their promises re test numbers or even about the still high number of daily deaths (my measure being anything greater than 0 is unacceptable)

[oddoneout]

Thank you johnb.
Totally agree with keeping an eye on this and hope you’ll continue to post the facts in such a clear manner.

The testing data is also useful - sadly there seems to be nobody holding the governments feet to the fire with respect to their promises re test numbers or even about the still high number of daily deaths (my measure being anything greater than 0 is unacceptable)

Given the way the government has resorted to 'creative accounting techniques' when challenged over testing rates I think that it is perhaps better to concentrate on quality (ie tests done correctly and yielding valid rather than void results) than quantity if, as seems to be the case, we can't have both?
Is the wave pattern on that graph the result of corrections to figures posted or do the daily figures actually vary like that?

[teamsaint]

Thank you johnb.
Totally agree with keeping an eye on this and hope you’ll continue to post the facts in such a clear manner.

The testing data is also useful - sadly there seems to be nobody holding the governments feet to the fire with respect to their promises re test numbers or even about the still high number of daily deaths (my measure being anything greater than 0 is unacceptable)

Until we have a vaccine there is going to be a certain level of incidence of the disease. Though the aim should be to keep incidence very low indeed,it seems to me that aiming for zero incidence and deaths , with the measures that will or require, will do more harm than good by way collateral damage on health services, including mental health.

Incidentally, it would be interesting to see how the £15 BN on PPE breaks down. It seems an enormous sum, but maybe it is for a long term plan to prepare the NHS for future events....maybe....perhaps......

[Dave2002]

Until we have a vaccine there is going to be a certain level of incidence of the disease. Though the aim should be to keep incidence very low indeed,it seems to me that aiming for zero incidence and deaths , with the measures that will or require, will do more harm than good by way collateral damage on health services, including mental health.

Aiming at zero would have been a good thing at the start and would have reduced the overall number of deaths in the UK considerably. That opportunity was missed, but at least we now have a lot more knowledge of this disease. Perhaps we have also learned that other factors come into play, and that trying to control the disease also leads to other problems. You are perhaps right that we have to live with the problem, but what level of incidence and deaths due to CV-19 might be considered acceptable?

What is the “normal” rate for road traffic accidents, for example? Excess deaths has been mentioned as an indicator for CV-19, but that measure will probably also have been distorted. Deaths and illness due to lack of medical treatment or access to it will have gone up, but road traffic accidents and industrial accidents should have gone down.

My hunch is that England should be aiming at a death rate below 50 per day, and it’s not at that level yet, and rates may go up again as people start doing more things. Some time ago I would have preferred a zero level target, but that might be absolutely impossible, given where we are now, and based on current knowledge.

[oddoneout]

What I find worrying is that more and more information is coming out which suggests that this is not something from which everyone recovers fully or to a satisfactory level, and that the trail of health issues it leaves in its wake could be considerable. Given that our health and care services were unable to deal adequately with the pre-corona levels of chronic ill health this does not bode well, particularly if the effects can occur in those other than acute patients who will at least be 'in the system'.
Now it could just be that the level of attention being paid to the virus is picking up effects that also happen with other severe infections but which are not/have not been similarly reported, but I personally don't think that's the case, not least from the number of times medics say 'not something we've seen before' or 'this is unexpected'.

[Dave2002]

Sadly things not going too well elsewhere - https://messaging-custom-newsletters...e-121f779550b7

From the NY Times.

I hope Richard is holding up, and not being swamped again.