Coronavirus

[johnb]

Covid-19 deaths in hospital - based on NHS England data published today 02/06/20



There will be some upward revision over the last 14 days, mostly for the more recent dates.

In particular, the last 5 days will be subjection to significant upward revision, hence they are greyed out.

[Dave2002]

since they have a working electronic system why not issue each MP with a mobile device that allows them to vote from their benches (or even from elsewhere in the building) if physical presence is required - my own take is that DC has suggested to his puppet that parliament should be restricted in causing problems and that Johnson really needs a braying mass of asses to avoid being skewered by a capable leader of opposition (+ any side benefit of keeping the bolshie Scots far away is also to be desired - Durham has been proven as drivable even with dodgy eyesight so the young newbies in old red wall areas can manage)

I used to feel sorry for people who lived under dictatorships. Now I think we are almost living under one. Our Parliamentary democracy hasn't always worked well, but there has generally turned out to be some sense of decency which eventually caused changes in a better direction. Now we seem to have people who realise they can lie, cheat, and block any attempt to correct things for the benefit of the people, and there's nothing we can do about it. We're stuffed!

[zola]

Only 359 deaths. Nothing to see here. It's all going splendidly. Right thing at the right time. Stay alert.

[Dave2002]

Has any new enterprising world beating UK based games company produced a shoot-em up game based on Coronavirus yet? Got to keep our economy going, and stimulate new industry!

Plotline - go out, look around, keep alert, and then when you see the balls with the red bobbles coming towards you, shoot.

Remember to hide behind wash basins if they come towards you, and of course pick up bonus points for washing your hands. Additional tweaks might be a monitor on viral load, plus energy - so need to keep energy up and viral load down - as displayed on panels on the screen.

You're dead if you get run over by a ball, or your viral load goes up too high, or your energy levels go to zero.

As with most games, you're not actually dead until you've been killed 3 or 5 times.

Nowadays that can be done in 3D, or even multi-player on-line games, whereas in the much earlier days of arcade and computer games, all we had was 2D games, like Pacman.

Get programming! There could even be a Wii-Fit version using a balance board.

[Zucchini]

I don't think making fun on the back of people's fears and struggles as they cope with the omnipresent risk of death is a very good idea.

[teamsaint]

I actually went out into the world today, ( not Sainsburys ) and it was my misfortune to hear a bit of PMQs on the radio.
What a truly pathetic performance from the PM. Comfortably the worst I have ever heard.

And still the death count rises at speed. Shambles is definitely not a big enough word.
Still, doubtless it would have been worse if labour had won the election.

[johnb]

Still, doubtless it would have been worse if labour had win the election.

Party politics aside, I truly fail to see how that could have been the case.

[teamsaint]

Party politics aside, I truly fail to see how that could have been the case.

Sorry, JB I think Should have added something like ........

[MrGongGong]

And still the death count rises at speed. Shambles is definitely not a big enough word.
Still, doubtless it would have been worse if labour had win the election.

[Count Boso]

Sorry, JB I think Should have added something like ........

One can't help wondering how, on both sides of the Atlantic, these two administrations can keep the confidence of their respective supporters sufficiently to get reelected. Whether Trump has the advantage in not having so long to hang on, or Johnson having the leeway to cobble together a recovery, I really couldn't guess. Total chaos leading to ever more outrageous responses from both.

[Dave2002]

Still, doubtless it would have been worse if labour had won the election.

Not necessarily.

The PM likes languages, allegedly, though perhaps he likes Latin less than Greek.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc - something which he continues to ignore or acknowledge. Your assertion doesn't even have a valid precondition.

I believe, as he may do, that the eventual restrictions imposed have made a difference to the infection and death rates, but there is no control group, no proper measure, so the assertion that we have all made a difference is just that - an assertion with relatively unsound justification.

Comparisons with other countries still seem to suggest that there have been differences, but it would be difficult to assert categorically that success or failure in any countries are due to specific measures, though pictures are gradually emerging.

The FT page has active elements, and enables comparison between different countries by typing their names into the boxes on the page. Here, as an example, we see comparison between Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Bolivia - https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/...&values=deaths

This does suggest that Bolivia and Argentina have done much better than Brazil and Mexico. Similar comparisons can be made with other countries, including the UK. Note that it is also possible to check both New and Cumulative data.

[johnb]

I'd like to stick up for the Prime Minister on the travel quarantine. Good show, I say. We don't want those Covid free European wallers coming here and diluting our record breaking status on Covid.

[johnb]

Apologies for posting charts which might not be of any interest to anyone else but ...

We are all familiar with the chart of daily deaths and the rolling average that is used in the daily press conference. It is a chart of all deaths where there has been a positive test for Covid-19. The deaths are shown by the date the deaths were reported, rather than by the date of death.

It includes deaths in hospitals and deaths in other locations, the overwhelming majority of which are deaths in care homes. These are really two separate, though linked, epidemics.

I thought it interesting just to look at deaths in hospitals as this gives a better indication of the virus in the community at large. So I have taken the chart I have previously posted and superimposed equivalent data to that used in the press conference - but for hospital only deaths in England.

What is a cause for concern is how the 7 day rolling average appears to bottom out.



(The deaths by date reported seems offset to the right by a few days compared to the deaths by date of deaths. This is because the deaths that are reported on any particular day occurred over the previous weeks, though mostly in the previous 5 days.)

[oddoneout]

I actually went out into the world today, ( not Sainsburys ) and it was my misfortune to hear a bit of PMQs on the radio.
What a truly pathetic performance from the PM. Comfortably the worst I have ever heard.

And still the death count rises at speed. Shambles is definitely not a big enough word.
Still, doubtless it would have been worse if labour had won the election.

Omnishambles is quite a popular term...

[zola]

What is a cause for concern is how the 7 day rolling average appears to bottom out.

And over an extended period now.