Coronavirus

[vinteuil]

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jq8yWDHA7g&feature=youtu.be

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[MrGongGong]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/31/inequalities-pandemic-worse-lockdown-privilege

Just listened to a rather sycophantic item on R4 about schools going back today.
The "sub plot" wasn't hard to discenrn IMV
Nice, polite, well-behaved children in Buckinghamshire going to their nice school so that mummy and daddy can return to work etc etc
Little interviews where polite, articulte 6 year olds tell us how it's going to be fun seeing their teachers and friends again whilst keeping 2 metres apart .......

These aren't the people who NEED schools.

Surely, at this time, we should be prioritising all our educational resources on those for whom life is more complex or challenging?
The "nice" children will be fine, but there are many SEND and vulnerable youngsters for whom the impact of this is devastating.......

but maybe, (and we are being "buttered up" for this) we would be better off without them all together?

[MrGongGong]

And how do you want us/them to do that?

for example ....


Make schools available for those with disabilities many of whom need much more space
many children on the autistic spectrum (for example) need loads of space to run and move about, many of them live in small flats or houses with little space

and for those who live in chaotic environments, who are at risk etc




The quote (which is possibly true, I think, unlike many of these things) from Margaret Mead about the healed femur springs to mind

[LHC]

for example ....


Make schools available for those with disabilities many of whom need much more space
many children on the autistic spectrum (for example) need loads of space to run and move about, many of them live in small flats or houses with little space

and for those who live in chaotic environments, who are at risk etc




The quote (which is possibly true, I think, unlike many of these things) from Margaret Mead about the healed femur springs to mind

Children considered at risk should have been attending school already, as they are one of the groups that schools were instructed to stay open for.

[Dave2002]

Getting out of this mess might be hard for some people. The risks are hopefully going down, but it occurs to me that the over 70s, for example, often tend to go to meetings with other people of similar age. It might only take one of them to pick up the virus from one of his or her grandchildren to then pass it on to a rather large group, with potentially disastrous effects.

There are still medical unknowns though - it's not all "just maths". Things which seem to be unknown, which are important, are:

* there's no reliable test for previous exposure. It's possible that many people have been exposed, and experienced no symptoms, mild symptoms, or even significant symptoms, but just "got through it", and ascribed those to colds or 'flu.
* there's not enough evidence regarding building up immunity by exposure. So far it's conjecture that having been exposed once, that there will be some protective immunity.
* CV-19 seems to be only a slow mutating virus, so there's some hope of vaccines - but as with 'flu, these may still have to be specific each year or two.
* Do superspreaders exist? Are there people who are very effective at spreading this virus, or is it just contextual - for example choirs which have been infected by just one member - but maybe they would have been infected by any one of their members having the disease?

One good thing which I read recently, though maybe needs to be confirmed, is that there is a "cure" - by which I mean that many people do recover. Conversely, I didn't know until a few days ago when I read an article about this that HIV actually modifies human cells so that once infected, it doesn't go away, though nowadays many people can live reasonable lives with drug treatments. It doesn't seem that this is going to be the case for CV-19.

The options for CV-19 seem to be : don't get it, get it and live and then afterwards survive normally, die.

However some people who survive do seem to then have other medical problems, which may require other treatments.

[MrGongGong]

Children considered at risk should have been attending school already, as they are one of the groups that schools were instructed to stay open for.

Do you trust the government to protect and support the most vulnerable?

I have often spent lots of time in SEN schools
There isn't a hope in hell of the restrictions working for those children, many of whom will be stressed and have levels of anxiety that most people would find completely intolerable

How about acting in the best interests of the most in need... for once ?

[teamsaint]

Funny how the Mail is showing a feature photo of a teacher in a PPE face shield, because there is no sign of such things hereabouts, unfortunately.

Teachers and school staff have been put in what might be seen an impossible position, in a truly disgraceful way.

[eighthobstruction]

Do you trust the government to protect and support the most vulnerable?

I have often spent lots of time in SEN schools
There isn't a hope in hell of the restrictions working for those children, many of whom will be stressed and have levels of anxiety that most people would find completely intolerable

How about acting in the best interests of the most in need... for once ?

[DracoM]

Funny how the Mail is showing a feature photo of a teacher in a PPE face shield, because there is no sign of such things hereabouts, unfortunately.

Teachers and school staff have been put in what might be seen an impossible position, in a truly disgraceful way.

Dead right. Anger here too.

[Serial_Apologist]

Now we hear that the chances of meeting someone with CV-19 if we go out is about 1/400 compared with 1/40 when the disease was more active.

I think that was said to apply here in the London area, but not (yet) in for example the NE, where infectivity rates still remain high.

[vinteuil]

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I think that was said to apply here in the London area, but not (yet) in for example the NE, where invectivity rates still remain high.

... yes, invective rates around Durham and Barnard Castle still pretty high


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[johnb]

Now we hear that the chances of meeting someone with CV-19 if we go out is about 1/400 compared with 1/40 when the disease was more active.

I think that was said to apply here in the London area, but not (yet) in for example the NE, where invectivity rates still remain high.

The 1 in 400 figure was the result of a study of swab tests performed on 10,705 people in more than 5,000 households over England between 27 April and 10 May by ONS. Regional variations are not addressed. The study was published on the 14th May so the findings are now rather out of date.

At any given time between 27 April and 10 May 2020, it is estimated that an average of 0.27% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.17% to 0.41%)

0.27% being roughly 1 in 400.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england14may2020

Later Edit:

A subsequent ONS study dated 28th May also arrived at the same 1 in 400 ratio: 0.24% (95% confidence interval: 0.11% to 0.46%). Presumably it is this study that Dave was referring to.

I'm very surprised that it has only declined from 0.27% to 0.24% in 14 days. But of course there is a significant margin of error - so who knows what is actually going on.

[Globaltruth]

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... yes, invective rates around Durham and Barnard Castle still pretty high


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if only there was a like button

[Dave2002]

if only there was a like button

Isn't this the one : --->>>

[Serial_Apologist]

if only there was a like button

-> ME: < -