Coronavirus

[MrGongGong]

Critical Mass - hand out fines to all those families? I've read somewhere that payment of fines from the severe lockdown stage are no more than 50%.

One of these will get your fine cancelled

https://www.funkybunky.co.uk/Item/Dominic-Cummings-mask

[LeMartinPecheur]

One of these will get your fine cancelled

https://www.funkybunky.co.uk/Item/Dominic-Cummings-mask

Hope sales are huge cos then DC can buy one and go anywhere cos nobody will know it's him!

Come to think of it, perhaps he wouldn't even need to buy the mask?

[burning dog]

Did you see the photo of Bournemouth beach, apparently yesterday, according to the BBC? Big households.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52798684

It's specially disappointing and frustrating as up to now the Bournemouth, Christchurch, Poole conurbation of 390,000 has one of the lowest infection, hospitalisation and death rates in the country. Full of "oldies" but many were socially distancing before it was compulsory. Sadly at least 60 have died in nursing homes

[Beresford]

Its specially disappointing and frustrating as up to now the Bournemouth, Christchurch, Poole conurbation of 390,000 has one of the lowest infection, hospitalisation and death rates in the country.....

If the Bournemouth area infection rates do not rise in 2-4 weeks, would this show that the existing lockdown rules on trips to beaches are too severe? Just asking.

[burning dog]

If the Bournemouth area infection rates do not rise in 2-4 weeks, would this show that the existing lockdown rules on trips to beaches are too severe? Just asking.

Possibly, the problem with large outdoor gatherings according to some is how they get there eg. members from two households in a car or public transport before the lock-down. It could be a "take-away" problem if that's the case. I wouldn't blame the crowds on "outsiders" as I know of quite a few locals who were going to the beach. Some turned back

The behaviour at local supermarkets locally seem very good compared with Essex according to some relatives of mine, who've witnessed pushing in queues and spitting at staff. Anecdotal evidence though.

[Dave2002]

Hope sales are huge cos then DC can buy one and go anywhere cos nobody will know it's him!

Come to think of it, perhaps he wouldn't even need to buy the mask?

Does he have shares in the company? Royalties?

In the meantime, is this DC saga really a distraction from something else which isn't going as it should have? More or less PPE, testing and tracing, problems with the furlough handouts, not wishing to spell out to the great British public that the virus does not take any notice of what BJ says and is not going away, etc?

How clever!

[oddoneout]

Did you see the photo of Bournemouth beach, apparently yesterday, according to the BBC? Big households.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52798684

Indeed. I had to do a double check to make sure it was current and not a generic bank Holiday photo.

[johnb]

There is much talk about other countries lifting the lockdown and now the UK seems to following their lead - so I thought it might be interesting to see what the average number of deaths has been over the 7 days to 24th May:

Greece		  1
Portugal	 14
Belgium		 33
France		 36
Sweden		 46
Germany		 46
Italy		125
Spain		170
United Kingdom	308

This is using the daily figures, as collated by Johns Hopkins University. For example, the UK's figures are those announced at the daily press conference and then published on the government website.

[johnb]

Over the past few days there have been reports of Weston General Hospital (in Weston Super Mare) closing its doors to new admissions and A&E due to high levels of coronavirus. It was mentioned once again in todays "World at One" programme on R4.

As I live only 25 miles away I thought I would take a look at the figures.

There are confirmed case figures for North Somerset which includes Weston Super Mare. North Somerset is a largely rural area with W-S-M by far the largest town, comprising over 35% of the entire population. The area also includes Portishead Docks, Clevedon and Bristol Airport.

North Somerset borders onto the south of Bristol so I have shown the case data for both areas, in the format of cases per 100,000 population.



There might be factors that I am not aware of that are distorting the case figures for N. Somerset but it is fairly obvious the area has a sustained problem. It is highly likely that the infection hot spot centres on W-S-M, it being by far the largest urban conurbation and a seaside resort.

It sadly illustrates how the trajectory of the pandemic can be dramatically different in adjacent areas of the country.

[zola]

So, where are we then ? I don't have very much confidence left in the UK government's handling of the Covid -19 crisis. And I don't exclude their scientific advisors from this. 60,000 excess deaths in three months is not very good is it ? What do we have ? Too slow in imposing lock down. PPE provision, woeful. Test and trace strategy, laughably inadequate. Policy and action regarding care homes, disgraceful. Is there anything on the plus side ? Some marks for effort regarding the furlough scheme perhaps, for all its imperfections. The NHS did not collapse completely under the strain.

But with that track record, I am fearful for the next phase. Coming out of lock down too soon ? I hope not but the message is horribly muddled and not helped by the actions of a certain advisor. 'Local lock downs' looks like a disaster waiting to happen.

[teamsaint]

Over the past few days there have been reports of Weston General Hospital (in Weston Super Mare) closing its doors to new admissions and A&E due to high levels of coronavirus. It was mentioned once again in todays "World at One" programme on R4.

As I live only 25 miles away I thought I would take a look at the figures.

There are confirmed case figures for North Somerset which includes Weston Super Mare. North Somerset is a largely rural area with W-S-M by far the largest town, comprising over 35% of the entire population. The area also includes Portishead Docks, Clevedon and Bristol Airport.

North Somerset borders onto the south of Bristol so I have shown the case data for both areas, in the format of cases per 100,000 population.



There might be factors that I am not aware of that are distorting the case figures for N. Somerset but it is fairly obvious the area has a sustained problem. It is highly likely that the infection hot spot centres on W-S-M, it being by far the largest urban conurbation and a seaside resort.

It sadly illustrates how the trajectory of the pandemic can be dramatically different in adjacent areas of the country.

Could you let us know where you found these figures please ? I'd be very interested to see them for Hants and S Wilts, as the government is insistent that teaching staff go back to work .

And thanks for all the work that you have done on the data, it is really appreciated.

[Serial_Apologist]

Over the past few days there have been reports of Weston General Hospital (in Weston Super Mare) closing its doors to new admissions and A&E due to high levels of coronavirus. It was mentioned once again in todays "World at One" programme on R4.

As I live only 25 miles away I thought I would take a look at the figures.

There are confirmed case figures for North Somerset which includes Weston Super Mare. North Somerset is a largely rural area with W-S-M by far the largest town, comprising over 35% of the entire population. The area also includes Portishead Docks, Clevedon and Bristol Airport.

North Somerset borders onto the south of Bristol so I have shown the case data for both areas, in the format of cases per 100,000 population.



There might be factors that I am not aware of that are distorting the case figures for N. Somerset but it is fairly obvious the area has a sustained problem. It is highly likely that the infection hot spot centres on W-S-M, it being by far the largest urban conurbation and a seaside resort.

It sadly illustrates how the trajectory of the pandemic can be dramatically different in adjacent areas of the country.

Is it possible that the high proportion of retired people living in N Somerset, particularly in places like Weston and Clevedon, might have something to do with the higher rate there than in neighbouring Bristol?

[johnb]

The data for the number of lab confirmed cases is available as a download on the government/PHE coronavirus "Dashboard". These are only cases confirmed by tests done in PHE and NHS labs and does not include drive through centre test resultor posted test kits, etc.

There is also a link to the "Dashboard" on the governments "Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK " website: towards the very bottom of the page.

On the "Dashboard" - scroll down and you will find the download link for case data just below the map. Choose the csv format as that can be opened by Excel.

The column headings are:

Area name
Area code
Area type
Specimen date
Daily lab-confirmed cases
Previously reported daily cases
Change in daily cases
Cumulative lab-confirmed cases
Previously reported cumulative cases
Change in cumulative cases
Cumulative lab-confirmed cases rate

I've highlighted the ones that I used.

The order of the data "as is" isn't very useful so it needs to be sorted.

In Excel, select the whole of the data, including the headings, then sort by:

Area Type (this is because some areas appear in more than one Area Type (e.g. Unitary Authorities)
Area Name
Specimen date

I then scroll down to the area/region that I am interested in, select the "Speciment Date" & "Daily lab-comfirmed cases" range and copy it to another Excel file.

The ONS population estimates can be downloaded from the ONS website here.

[johnb]

Is it possible that the high proportion of retired people living in N Somerset, particularly in places like Weston and Clevedon, might have something to do with the higher rate there than in neighbouring Bristol?

Good question.

I've just looked that information up in the ONS file that I provided a link to in #2622 and I'm quite staggered by the difference.

Median age of the population mid-2019:
Bristol: 32.4
North Somerset: 46.0

(Perhaps the fact that there are two universities in Bristol has an influence on the median age.)

However, at the time when the daily new cases in Bristol reached a peak those in North Somerset were well below Bristol's level. The alarming thing is that the new infections for North Somerset, apparently, haven't declined but have kept growing week by week.

[Dave2002]

Wasn't Baroness Dido Harding previously in charge of Talk Talk? That went well, didn't it?