Coronavirus

[Boilk]

What would be a genuine surprise is if the government got something (anything) right.

Well today, just three days after I triggered the online application for CoVid19-impacted lost income, HMRC coughed up the full whack into my bank account (and it tallied to the pound with my own calculation). Then again, maybe HMRC is not the Government?

[DracoM]

.............or...........................are you the Chief of HMRC in disguise? Aha!

[johnb]

This is an update of the chart I've previously posted of the Covid-19 hospital deaths in England, by date of death.

Of course there are really two epidemics - one in the general community and one in care homes - and this only relates to deaths in the general community, not care homes.

I'm not sure what to make of 11th to 15th May (data after that date will be subject to significant upward revision so can't really be taken into account).

Is the decline flattening out?



The chart includes hospital deaths which have been ascribed to Covid-19 on the death certificate but where there hasn't been a positive test (or possibly where the tests a the time have come back negative). These amounted to 11% of the total hospital deaths in England over the past 14 days. (!)

(The plateau between the 2nd and 7th May was probably linked to increased transmission over Easter.)

Notes as before:

The cumulative data is revised each day as the day's newly reported deaths are distributed back over the days in which the deaths actually occurred.

Of the daily reported deaths very roughly 85% tend to have occurred over the previous 5 days with the other 15% spread over the preceding two or three weeks.

Source data: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...-daily-deaths/

[MrGongGong]

This is an update of the chart I've previously posted of the Covid-19 hospital deaths in England, by date of death.

Of course there are really two epidemics - one in the general community and one in care homes - and this only relates to deaths in the general community, not care homes.

I'm not sure what to make of 11th to 15th May (data after that date will be subject to significant upward revision so can't really be taken into account).

Is the decline flattening out?



(The plateau between the 2nd and 7th May was probably linked to increased transmission over Easter.)

Notes as before:

The cumulative data is revised each day as the day's newly reported deaths are distributed back over the days in which the deaths actually occurred.

Of the daily reported deaths very roughly 85% tend to have occurred over the previous 5 days with the other 15% spread over the preceding two or three weeks.

Source data: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...-daily-deaths/

Is there a breakdown by region ?

Where I live is about 2 weeks behind London
as are many other places

But, hey ho, it's only the provinces

[johnb]

Is there a breakdown by region ?

Where I live is about 2 weeks behind London
as are many other places

But, hey ho, it's only the provinces

The figures are available for:

Regions, e.g. East of England, London, Midlands, NE & Yorkshire, NW, SE, SW

and also by

200+ Hospital Trusts
For example, there are individual figures for the 29 hospital trusts in the North West.

If you let me know what you are interested in (say, by PM) I can easily knock something similar up for that region or group of hospital trusts. Alternatively you can download the data by using the link in my post, then selecting "COVID 19 total announced deaths 21 May 2020".

e.g. for Bristol: https://app.box.com/s/nyfmmnvk6thiok2xmlq8d59gfi0foku8

[Dave2002]

Today we heard from Nicola that the R value in March was 4 in Scotland. That seems really high. Now it’s apparently down to somewhere between 0.7 and just short of 1. It’s still going to take a while to get this sorted.

[MrGongGong]

The figures are available for:

Regions, e.g. East of England, London, Midlands, NE & Yorkshire, NW, SE, SW

and also by

200+ Hospital Trusts
For example, there are individual figures for the 29 hospital trusts in the North West.

If you let me know what you are interested in (say, by PM) I can easily knock something similar up for that region or group of hospital trusts. Alternatively you can download the data by using the link in my post, then selecting "COVID 19 total announced deaths 21 May 2020".

e.g. for Bristol: https://app.box.com/s/nyfmmnvk6thiok2xmlq8d59gfi0foku8

Thanks
What I notice from where I live is that everything seems to be based on London and the South East (what a surprise )
most people in England (let alone the UK) live elsewhere

[MrGongGong]

Today we heard from Nicola that the R value in March was 4 in Scotland. That seems really high. Now it’s apparently down to somewhere between 0.7 and just short of 1. It’s still going to take a while to get this sorted.

At least she is basically honest
not the lying sack of shit that we have as a pathetic excuse for a Prime Minister

[Old Grumpy]

Well today, just three days after I triggered the online application for CoVid19-impacted lost income, HMRC coughed up the full whack into my bank account (and it tallied to the pound with my own calculation). Then again, maybe HMRC is not the Government?

I hope HMRC's face was covered when it coughed up!

[Serial_Apologist]

Thanks
What I notice from where I live is that everything seems to be based on London and the South East (what a surprise )
most people in England (let alone the UK) live elsewhere

Not around here they don't.

[MrGongGong]

Pants on fire again

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-coronavirus-tests-have-double-counted-officials/?fbclid=IwAR3-uy-HnUJwpX3pg0ZcxZz-vWcXjED2v8XLW0VrgBez-CO_TDAV0maPhpA

[Dave2002]

Try this

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/22/rich-people-need-to-blame-the-coronavirus-economic-crash-on-lockdown-our-profits-are-on-a-ventilator

Actually I was trying to link directly to the cartoon with the slogan “It is important that everyone get back to work so the wealthy can start making money again” and the banner “Welcome Back”. It is one panel in the sequence, though.

[vinteuil]

.

.. John Crace on stonking form, as usual -

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/21/matt-hancock-is-not-ok-someone-really-ought-to-furlough-him

One could almost feel sorry for Matt Hancock ....



.

[Dave2002]

.

.. John Crace on stonking form, as usual -

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/21/matt-hancock-is-not-ok-someone-really-ought-to-furlough-him

One could almost feel sorry for Matt Hancock ....



.

Indeed.

Now isn’t it about time the daily briefings did face up to what has been going on in the rest of the world again?

I know it’s not “good” to compare, but we do need an update. We can’t afford the time to wait for some medical historian to do a review in ten or fifteen years.

I read recently that some African nations have actually handled the virus situation rather well. One technique which works for tracking cases in poorer countries is pool testing. Basically if there’s low incidence of the disease, take blood samples and pool them together (does that mean the blood is mixed?), and then test. If there’s no detection in that pooled sample, the people in that area of testing can be eliminated from immediate further tracing, though that might not show that everyone is virus free. This approach could speed up contact tracing. If this is done with significant, though small, blood samples - by which I mean perhaps 1 cc per person, rather than a finger prick, then each individual sample could be divided into two parts. One part would be kept and filed, the other part pooled. Then the testing could be done on the pooled sample, so that the time pressure to examine all the individual samples would be reduced, and the testing effort should become more efficient. I don’t know what techniques are being used in places where such pool testing is being used as a methodology.

There may be other pool testing strategies which could be even more efficient than the one I’ve suggested. Note though, that efficiency should not - hopefully - be achieved to the detriment of effectiveness. Polling test material might compromise the physical tests - I just don’t know. Also, the extra time for some samples could lead to other problems, degradation of sampled material, or recording errors.

[MrGongGong]

Now isn’t it about time the daily briefings did face up to what has been going on in the rest of the world again?

Maybe if you are unhappy with what is on in that theatre you could go to another one?
It is a performance designed to manipulate.

The "U-turn" on the NHS surcharge for migrant health workers is also part of it.
I suspect (and even though I used to have a TQ9 postcode I don't think it's the aliens !) that this was the plan all along.
Make the government (and Johnson in particular) appear to be empathetic and caring... and lots of people are taken in by it, I'm afraid.