Coronavirus

[MrGongGong]

....yes, interesting....

Very
It shows NO deaths where I live
But I know at least 2 people in the village I live in who have had it.....
and I know that people have died in nearby places

[oddoneout]

Difficult to be sure, and the data will be changing on a day to day basis. From the map it doesn't look significantly worse, and it's significantly better than large cities such as Manchester and Liverpool. Probing the map suggests that some parts of the UK do have low incidence - for example the south west. It only takes a few minutes to scan the map, though whether it gets updated frequently I don't know, and it's clear that in some parts of the map the figures are just averaged out over a rather large area.

Those in Barrow seem to have something to be concerned about

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/the-remote-cumbrian-town-with-the-uks-highest-covid-19-infection-rate-barrow-in-furness

[DracoM]

Talk of the county up here.

[johnb]

Bearing in mind Professor Spiegenhalter's view that judicious comparisons CAN be made between countries, I thought the comparison between Sweden and Portugal might be interesting. Roughly the same population 10.3m.....

You prompted me to cobble together this chart. Greece is another (very) interesting example, with roughly the same population as Portugal and Sweden. Odd that Greece is seldom mentioned with regard to Covid-19.



(Data from Johns Hopkins.)

[ardcarp]

If the Greece 'curve' is right (and they have been reporting accurately) that really is odd!

[Count Boso]

Odd that Greece is seldom mentioned with regard to Covid-19.

Very interesting chart, thank you. I have read a few mentions of Greece in various places from which I gathered that seemed to have missed the main brunt of the onslaught which swept through Italy, Spain and France. Again, Greece was credited with acting fast. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52491204 . There is always the proviso, of course, that the reporting has been accurate.

In the case of Belgium, there has also to be the possibility, in part, of sheer bad luck - the infection being brought in and thoroughly spread about by a number of asymptomatic arrivals before anyone realised what was happening.

[MrGongGong]

If the Greece 'curve' is right (and they have been reporting accurately) that really is odd!

So I guess I could have gone and done the gigs in Athens this weekend
aaaah well ... next year then

[Cockney Sparrow]

Guardian ; "Greeks marvel at Britain's Covid chaos as their lockdown lifts after 150 deaths"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/greeks-marvel-at-britains-covid-chaos-as-their-lockdown-lifts-after-150-deaths

[johnb]

In the case of Belgium, there has also to be the possibility, in part, of sheer bad luck - the infection being brought in and thoroughly spread about by a number of asymptomatic arrivals before anyone realised what was happening.

One major factor in Belgium's high number of deaths per 100,000 is the way it counts deaths in care homes.

The figures for the UK are those that are issued daily and only include care home deaths where the patient has tested positive for Covid-19, and we know what the care home testing has been like.

The Belgium figures include all instances of care home deaths where Covid-19 is suspected. Only approx 5% of the included care home deaths included have been confirmed by tests.

The UK figures to yesterday were:
Confirmed Covid-19 deaths in Hospital: 28,010 (82%)
Confirmed Covid-19 deaths outside Hospital (including care homes): 5,988 (18%)

As at 1st May the ONS figures for Covid-19 deaths in care home deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate were roughly double those included in the daily figures of deaths (where the patient was tested positive for the virus). Even then there is a question whether the ONS figures understate Covid-19 care home deaths - often no doctor attended the patient and the certificates were completed remotely.

In the Belgium figures. slightly over half the deaths happened in care homes.

[ardcarp]

I have a friend who is a retired GP, but heavily into medical 'politics'. He told me six weeks ago that many hospitals would not accept admissions from care-home residents who were critically ill with suspected Covid. We also learn that the elderly who were in hospital and had survived Covid were chucked out back to care-homes without further testing. That along with the lack of PPE for staff just added up to a lethal cocktail.

[Dave2002]

I have a friend who is a retired GP, but heavily into medical 'politics'. He told me six weeks ago that many hospitals would not accept admissions from care-home residents who were critically ill with suspected Covid. We also learn that the elderly who were in hospital and had survived Covid were chucked out back to care-homes without further testing. That along with the lack of PPE for staff just added up to a lethal cocktail.

There may also be cases which are not involving care homes immediately and directly. Consider two peope, both elderly, living together alone, but with support from family and neighbours. One of them - a woman - becomes ill or needs treatment before the Covid-19 outbreak, so goes into hospital for treatment. After the treatment the woman goes to a rehabilitation centre, where she picks up CV-19. Eventually she is released back home, where her husband now picks up the virus from her. Between the two of them they make several trips to hospital for new treatment, but eventually, sadly, the man dies. At this point, the hospital will no longer release the woman back home, as she has no reliable person to care for her, so they plan to move her into a home. It then becomes uncertain whether the woman will survive further problems, because of difficultieis regarding the nature of guaranteed support within the community.

Of course, unfortunate consequences such as this, can be explained away as unfortunate problems with co-existing conditions in elderly patients.

With hindsight it's easy to say that some of these things shouldn't have happened, and indeed shouldn't still be happening. Some of the mishandling - perhaps excusable due to lack of knowledge at the time - is creating new problems, parrticularly for older patients, who would otherwise be able to survive with the help of family and friends, but because of these "errors" a poor, but perhaps recoverable situation, is turned into a catastrophe.

[muzzer]

This BMJ report is damning https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1932

[Dave2002]

Very
It shows NO deaths where I live
But I know at least 2 people in the village I live in who have had it.....
and I know that people have died in nearby places

When I looked at the map, I made an observation re Barrow, which suggested that there wasn't/isn't a huge problem.

However, Draco's mention

Talk of the county up here.

suggestss otherwise. The data is maybe not reflecting the underlying situations well enough.

[Count Boso]

When I looked at the map, I made an observation re Barrow, which suggested that there wasn't/isn't a huge problem.

However, Draco's mention



suggestss otherwise. The data is maybe not reflecting the underlying situations well enough.

The high number of infections reported can be explained by the fact that they have done two or three times the number of tests in Barrow compared with elsewhere. Not sure how the number of deaths correlates.

[Dave2002]

The high number of infections reported can be explained by the fact that they have done two or three times the number of tests in Barrow compared with elsewhere. Not sure how the number of deaths correlates.

So does that imply that the measured data is an artefact of the process, or poor recording, or that reporting elsewhere is too low (due to various, possibly unknown, factors) or something else?

Is the test strategy (not the same as "the test") reliable?