Originally posted by oddoneout
View Post
-
He'll also need a rubber won't he? (Just in case he makes a mistake - that's all I meant, honest). -
While fully bearing in mind johnb's warnings re different counting regimes, this appears to offer some small 'comfort' to Johnson and his chosen advisors.
Comment
-
Miriam Margolyes for presidentComment
-
A couple of weeks difference between the state of play in the different countries could easily see the UK have worse figures than the other European countries, apart from Belgium.Originally posted by Bryn View Post
It is a bit too early to be sure, but I think the result will be worse than the current state might suggest.Comment
-
Apples and oranges, inevitably surely? And where’s the plan going forward? They can’t even buy PPE from Turkey? Perhaps the EBay buyer protection plan can help? Complete shower of incompetence. Utter betrayal of the country.Comment
-
In any case, I'm not sure that the figures for countries' deaths v population are on their own any more meaningful than the raw 'number of deaths' on their own. Population disrtibution and density, percentage urban population, median age, geography etc all have to be factored in when considering the number of deaths. The UK being an island should theoretically be able to contain a spreading outbreak more easily than contiguous countries, or places like N. Korea where guards have been given orders to shoot anyone seen attempting to cross the border into the country.Originally posted by Dave2002 View PostComment
-
The coronavirus reproduction rate in Germany rose to 1.1, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) Berlin announced on Saturday. On Wednesday, as Chancellor Angela Merkel and state premiers announced the easing of social distancing coupled with wearing masks, the rate was 0.65. . . (DW)My life, each morning when I dress, is four and twenty hours less. (J Richardson)Comment
-
Apparently we're going to be asked/told to 'Stay Alert' - to what? Approaching e-scooters? UFOs? Special offers at supermarkets? Other peoples' incorrect grammar or usage when discussing the weather? Seagull poo? Appearances on our devices by, among others, Nicholas Witchell, Nigel Farage and Donald Trump? The whole point, and the beauty, of 'Stay (At) Home' was that everybody knew what it meant and the great majority of the population complied.Comment
-
That was my reaction too. I think J K Rowling summed it up nicelyOriginally posted by LMcD View Postquoted in the Guardian.The new slogan drew some scorn, including from the author JK Rowling, who said: “Is coronavirus sneaking around in a fake moustache and glasses? If we drop our guard, will it slip us a Micky Finn? What the hell is ‘stay alert’ supposed to mean?”
And what about this warning system that's supposed to be set up? Apart from the suspension of belief needed to imagine it will be operational any time in the foreseeable future, just what is it supposed to achieve? How will local changes in restrictions be implemented? 'Roadmap' seems to be a favourite word at present(typical isn't it - how many people use a roadmap these days, most seem to rely on a disembodied voice on a device telling them where to go) so will we have to check where the boundaries are each time we need to venture forth so we can alter behaviour appropriately?Comment
-
If the choice is between repeated national lockdowns, or targetted local measures, isn’t checking what is in place for wherever we travel, and checking where the borders are , a reasonable price to pay ?Originally posted by oddoneout View Post
Obviously I haven’t seen detail , but the five level warnings seems to be a system that should help people understand quite easily how they should be acting.
I do a agree about suspension of disbelief required in imagining the government implementing this though...Last edited by teamsaint; 10-05-20, 08:51.I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.
I am not a number, I am a free man.Comment
-
Unfortunately other people have used the term “reproduction rate” so it’s got into common parlance. The number you (and others are referring to) is the reproduction number (so called) - the number of people infected by just one person with whom he or she have had contact. The reproduction rate depends on the reproduction number, and also on the incubation periods etc., so should also depend on time in order to be described as a rate. As with most of this stuff, rates and/or reproduction numbers are just being estimated right now, though they are starting to be estimated with greater accuracy, and factors which vary the numbers and rates are being determined so that we can collectively have some influence over the progression of the disease.Originally posted by Pianorak View Post
Just to make things worse, some epidemiologists use slightly different terms, such as R0 when referring to values which may, or may not be, the same as someone else’s “reproduction number”.
To give a completely unrealistic example of how a reproduction number above one might not worry us to much, consider a value of 2, and an incubation period of 50 years with infections only occurring at the end of the incubation period. [I did say this is an unrealistic example ...] After 100 years fewer than 10 people would be infected. Even if a value of 10 were used with a very long period (50 years), there would only be around 100 infections after 100 years. To be called a rate, a value needs to take time into account.
Realistically the period during which infections transmit seem to be (mostly) between 1 and 14 days, with a mean (or was it a median?) of about 5 days we were told yesterday by Professor Van Tan.
Of course in practice the reproduction number will affect the reproduction rate, but it is a different concept. Many people are using the terms loosely and interchangeably.Comment
-
It's not the concept I have a problem with it's the inevitable chaos(and bad feeling ) that potentially ensues given the complete pigs ear the government makes of any such bright ideas. The modus operandi seems to be 'announce a whizz scheme and wait for it to materialise'. The idea that there may need to be some input from their end never surfaces.Originally posted by teamsaint View Post
Thinking about it perhaps roadmap is a good term - out of date,inaccurate and misleading, with dangerous consequences...Comment
-
Well at least 'Stay alert' is grammatically correct, unlike 'Stay home'.Originally posted by LMcD View PostComment
-
Absolutely.Originally posted by LMcD View Post
And politicians wonder why they are almost universally scorned and derided and dismissed as fairground / fairyland hucksters.Comment
Comment