Coronavirus

[johnb]

There was a normalised graph showing comparisons of different countries at today's press conference. It did give a somewhat different view of the data. There does look like the start of a long slow decline from the peak (infections - probably also hospital deaths) - but it's going to give a lot of new cases - area under the curves is what counts.

Glad to see the normalised graph - which is what I wished for a few days back.

Although it is welcome that the deaths outside hospital of confirmed Covid-19 cases are now included in the figures these still do not include the deaths of patients who were not tested (or had a negative test result) but who were suspected as having died from Covid-19. As the majority of people in care homes have not been tested, these additional figures for deaths outside hospital will understate the true level by a considerable amount.

Out of interest this is a breakdown of yesterdays figure:

Deaths in hospital (comparable to figures previously announced): 578
Deaths of confirmed cases outside hospital: 187
Total: 765

There does look like the start of a long slow decline from the peak (infections - probably also hospital deaths) - but it's going to give a lot of new cases - area under the curves is what counts.

Yes, there is a definite and significant decline in hospital deaths, although the situation in car homes is very different indeed - scandalously and tragically so.

There are two ways of looking at hospital deaths

(a) by using the figures released daily of the deaths reported in the 24 hours up to 5pm the previous day. These figures are volatile especially following the weekends but are available daily for the UK as a whole.

(b) by the figures released for deaths by date of death. These give a far better picture of what is actually occurring but are continually being updated which means that the final 5 days are especially unreliable. These figures are only generally available for England

The following chart is taken from the PHE document "Technical Summary. Public Health England Data Series on Deaths in People with COVID-19" published yesterday and is similar to the chart for hospital deaths that I posted the other day (post #1974) .



The last 5 days should be disregarded.

Over the coming weeks there will be upwards revisions to the figures, mostly for the last two weeks shown (and very significantly for the last five days). Those revisions will slightly lessen the steepness of the decline.

Today's updates for England (not shown in the above chart) indicate there has probably been a slowing of the decline between 21st and 24th April. It's too early to tell what happened after the 24th.

[zola]

Gresham College lecture today on Covid-19 by Chris Whitty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BdPKpWbxTg&t=182s

[Dave2002]

Backsliding - today.

Today the graphic showing the worldwide progress of the virus had reverted, so showed absoute values, rather than proportionate to population size for each country. Deliberate or accidental?? MMMMMmmmmmmm. Of course, as a couple of people said, including BJ, it doesn't always make sense to compare countries - and to some extent that is correct. It's a selective process of course, but if it really doesn't make sense to compare countries, then why show any comparison at all? Presumably it's felt important to make a little effort in the direction of "complete transparency".

We loved the metaphor of going under a mountain in a tunnel - but there was a flaw. If another mountain suddently popped up ahead, wouldn't there be a tunnel under that one too?

Not clever if one hadn't thought to make one.

Oh - mention was made of an article - stated to be good - in what must be one of the favourite newspapers today - the Guardian. Probably worth looking out for that one. I'm not absolutely sure which article was intended, nor the original date of publication.

I do hope the proper proportionate graphic, with up to date data will reappear tomorrow.

[johnb]

Oh - mention was made of an article - stated to be good - in what must be one of the favourite newspapers today - the Guardian. Probably worth looking out for that one. I'm not absolutely sure which article was intended, nor the original date of publication.

I'd like to think it was this (it is certainly an article that everyone should read): https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...navirus-crisis

But it was probably this one: https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ther-countries

[Dave2002]

I'd like to think it was this (it is certainly an article that everyone should read): https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...navirus-crisis

But it was probably this one: https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ther-countries

This quote from the first of those articles is a sad reminder of the way things were handled when people should have been given better advice -

“I was at a hospital the other night where I think there were actually a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody.”

I don't think we are "working" with a Harry S. Truman here. Of course my comment about "favourite" newspapers would probably not apply to those of Tory persuasion, and the blind leading the blind. That was intentional.

[MrGongGong]

https://www.classicfm.com/music-news/coronavirus/police-intervene-string-quartet-street-performance/

Do you think that Shostakovitch would have been so polite ?


and what on earth is this nonsense ?

They might have been caught out in the act but with such a display of politeness and fairness from the police, the string quartet agreed to suspend their concert right away.

[Jazzrook]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/30/breathless-boris-is-left-floundering-as-he-faces-foe-he-cant-outbluster

JR

[MrGongGong]

I think this is worth bearing in mind (from FB)

Having heard the Tory rhetoric for many years about Tory “back to basics” family values and their revulsion towards unmarried mothers, the romanticising of Boris Johnson’s behaviour by the British media and tories smacks of hypocrisy (to say the least). In fact Johnson’s history of radical selfishness, duplicity and betrayal towards his wife and children should have us all very worried indeed
For any who are unaware of this man’s sleazy past, be aware that it makes for unpleasant reading. We cannot even begin to guess how many casual flings and one night stands he has engaged in, but here is the gist of his career with women.
Johnson’s first wife was Allegra Mostyn-Owen who he married in 1987 after they met at Oxford. The marriage ended when he had an affair with Marina Wheeler who gave birth to the first of the couple’s four children just five weeks after they married in 1993.
After their marriage Johnson then conducted a four year affair with Petronella Wyatt while he was editor of The Spectator and she was one of his columnists. MS Wyatt subsequently disclosed that she had an abortion and that she also suffered a miscarriage.
Mr Johnson initially responded to allegations of their affair by stating that it was an “inverted pyramid of piffle”. In spite of his assertions he was forced to resign as shadow arts minister and party vice-chairman in 2004 by the Tory leader Michael Howard for his lack of honesty about the affair, with a Tory spokesman stating that it was an issue of “personal morality”.
Far from learning from his mistakes and regardless of the pain and humiliation he heaped on his wife who was openly deeply distressed and furious with him, he began yet another sexual relationship with Anna Fazackerley, a journalist on the Times Educational Supplement. Contemporaries state that the affair with Ms Fazakerley actually overlapped with the affair with Ms Wyatt.
Undeterred Mr Johnson then fathered another child with arts consultant Helen Macintyre, once again leaving his wife profoundly distressed and humiliated. Details of the affair with Ms Macintryre were disclosed after Ms Macintyre lost a three-year legal fight to prevent the the press naming Johnson as the father of her daughter. The Appeal Court also heard that Ms Macintyre’s daughter was alleged to be the second child conceived as a result of Boris’s extra-marital affairs.
Lawyers for the Daily Mail argued it was in the public interest to reveal Mr Johnson’s extra-marital affairs and children because it “went to the issue of recklessness and whether on that account he was fit for public office”.
(The same Daily Mail currently eulogising the birth of this latest child with the Headline “Beaming Boris Johnson looks every inch the proud father as he's pictured hours after leaving bedside of fiancée Carrie Symonds and newborn son to return to tackling Britain's Covid crisis in No10 “)
In 2018 his long-suffering wife had had enough after 25 years of being with the serial philanderer as the affair with another worker from his office came to light (Carrie Symonds) and the couple’s intention to divorce was announced. Marina Johnson was subsequently diagnosed with cervical cancer which required surgery twice in 2019 while her husband simply abandoned her and the couple’s four children. He added insult to injury by announcing his latest lover’s pregnancy and their engagement three days after the death of his wife’s mother. His ex-wife was reported as being devastated and his children furious.
Not being one of those leopards that changes its spots he also began a liaison with American Jennifer Arcuri who described herself as “heartbroken” by his treatment of her.
Let’s not ignore the facts of this man’s history in the face of the media’s current lionising of the supremely selfish and compassionless PM. This is the level of honesty and morality he employs in his personal life towards people he allegedly cares for. Imagine what he would be willing to do to us if he thought it was in his personal interests to do so.
God help us all.

[Braunschlag]

And why would that be?

[Dave2002]

Here ia another Guardian article - with references to Ibsen - https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ny-and-dismiss

Little did I think when I saw the Enemy of the People performed a year or two back in Chichester with Hugh Bonneville as the main character, that we'd actually be living through something rather worse within a couple of years. Nor did I anticipate the relevance of Ibsen directly to the modern world.

[MrGongGong]

And why would that be?

Do you really think this man is capable of telling ANY truth ?
Do you really think he is trustworthy ?

Wouldn't it be so much better if we had someone capable of empathy in charge for a change ?

rather than this dysfunctional liar who has a track record of destroying everything he touches....and he certainly loves a bit of "touching"

[oddoneout]

Do you really think this man is capable of telling ANY truth ?
Do you really think he is trustworthy ?

Wouldn't it be so much better if we had someone capable of empathy in charge for a change ?

rather than this dysfunctional liar who has a track record of destroying everything he touches....and he certainly loves a bit of "touching"

The man has no moral compass so why is he 'leading' the country? No wonder we are up the proverbial.
What I find astonishing, in terms of the many who still support him, is that this behaviour is obviously a long-term lifestyle choice, not a one-off misjudgement.
As for Carrie, I feel some pity for her - I'm sure she thinks she is the one who can turn him around, that he will change the habits of a lifetime etc - but the chances of that are just about zilch. The only real question is how long his dalliance lasts. My real concern is for the unfortunate child.

[MrGongGong]

The man has no moral compass so why is he 'leading' the country? No wonder we are up the proverbial.
What I find astonishing, in terms of the many who still support him, is that this behaviour is obviously a long-term lifestyle choice, not a one-off misjudgement.
As for Carrie, I feel some pity for her - I'm sure she thinks she is the one who can turn him around, that he will change the habits of a lifetime etc - but the chances of that are just about zilch. The only real question is how long his dalliance lasts. My real concern is for the unfortunate child.

She is facilitating an abusive man
NO sympathy I'm afraid
she knew the gig and chose it
plenty of people have no choice

[oddoneout]

She is facilitating an abusive man
NO sympathy I'm afraid
she knew the gig and chose it
plenty of people have no choice

I realise that, but it doesn't stop me having some pity for her. People convince themselves of some strange things, and like the difference between mental and physical illness, change and a better outcome are not easily achieved.

[Serial_Apologist]

https://www.classicfm.com/music-news...t-performance/

Do you think that Shostakovitch would have been so polite ?


and what on earth is this nonsense ?

Caliban lives nearby - I wonder if he heard this.