Coronavirus

[Bryn]

Sounds like the word moron would be entirely justified in that situation, CS!

Don't be too quick to jump to judgement. When I was studying for a post-grad in Geotechnical engineering at the then Bolton IHE, a fellow student, from China, studying for an MSc in Large Scale Integrated Circuitry was insistent that microwave ovens were a major health hazard and would not go near one. He was by no means ignorant of non-ionising radiation research, he had simply got his levels out by a couple of orders of magnitude.

[Cockney Sparrow]

I take your point Bryn, but of course on this subject a lot of those swallowing these views would need "orders of magnitude" and other factual approaches to the issue explaining to them, if that were possible.

[Bryn]

From a commercial source but:

Do you need to wear a mask to avoid coronavirus?

[MrGongGong]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/28/theres-no-such-thing-just-following-the-science-coronavirus-advice-political

Complette with batshit "wisdom of crowds" comments below

[Dave2002]

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...vice-political

Complette with batshit "wisdom of crowds" comments below

I think some of the comments are currently sensible (around 1.30pm) - but I can see that there may well have been a lot of "crowd - er - wisdom" before. An interesting article - and some of the comments are OK. Not really worth trawling through all the comments, though.

[Padraig]

I wonder if this headline rings a bell, or sounds an alarm - on second thoughts, no it won't.

[johnb]

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...vice-political

A very good article indeed.

I remember Rory Stewart when interviewed in March on the Today, WoT or PM programme (I forget which) saying that the measures the government were taking and should take were political decisions - a comment which the interviewer and fellow guests ignored as though RS had been talking another language which they didn't understand. (IMO it is a great pity that RS was pushed out of the Conservative Party and then felt he had little option but to leave parliament.)

From a report in The Independent, 9th March:

Rory Stewart:
“There is no justification for half-hearted measures. The government and the mayor keep saying they are simply following ‘scientific advice’. But the scientists are clear that this is now a political decision – on whether the government are prepared to spend very serious sums of money, and take a large economic hit, to maximise protection of the population.

“China shows both the dangers of acting too slowly – at first – and then the benefits of acting decisively. We should have no regrets about spending money to do the absolute maximum to prevent the spread of this disease.”

[Dave2002]

I do wish the daily briefings would update the graph showing deaths per country. The graph has already been processed a bit, as the timeline for each country is not relative to dates, but rather to the date of a stated number of known deaths - I think 50. What the graph doesn't show is the proportion of the total population for each country, so although as presented the US is not doing very well, and Sweden and Germany are doing much better, with Italy, the UK, France and Spain all apparently on the same or similar trajectories, if normalised I think the USA would do better, Sweden's relative position would worsen, while Germany would maintain a good position. The UK would not look particularly good on such a graph.

There have been changes in the graphs and data presented over the last few weeks - sometimes so "subtle" as to have not been detected. Whether this is deliberate I can't say - possibly not - though some mis-representations have been allowed to continue. It's about time the deaths per country graph was presented in a different way - even if that's an additional graph.

PS: The horizontal grid lines have been removed from the transport use graphs over the last couple of days. There is a hint that road use is increasing. The horizontal grid lines are also missing from the People in Hospital graph, and also the Critical Care Beds graph. Similar presentational issues apply to the Daily Covid-19 Deaths in Hospital graph. It’s hard to figure out the values from the graphs as presented. The bar graphs could either have improved axis labels, or the values actually placed on each bar.

[LHC]

I do wish the daily briefings would update the graph showing deaths per country. The graph has already been processed a bit, as the timeline for each country is not relative to dates, but rather to the date of a stated number of known deaths - I think 50. What the graph doesn't show is the proportion of the total population for each country, so although as presented the US is not doing very well, and Sweden and Germany are doing much better, with Italy, the UK, France and Spain all apparently on the same or similar trajectories, if normalised I think the USA would do better, Sweden's relative position would worsen, while Germany would maintain a good position. The UK would not look particularly good on such a graph.

There have been changes in the graphs and data presented over the last few weeks - sometimes so "subtle" as to have not been detected. Whether this is deliberate I can't say - possibly not - though some mis-representations have been allowed to continue. It's about time the deaths per country graph was presented in a different way - even if that's an additional graph.

If you look on the worldometers site you can reorder their data by several different measures, including a per capita listing of deaths per million population. Under these parameters Belgium is doing particularly badly (518 per million). Spain (510), Italy (453) and France (357) are all worse than the UK (311). Sweden (233) and Ireland (223) have very similar figures despite very different approaches. USA’s figures are quite good (172) in comparison, but we’ll have to see what effect an early end to lockdown in several states will have.

Germany’s figures are 74 per million.

[Dave2002]

If you look on the worldometers site you can reorder their data by several different measures, including a per capita listing of deaths per million population. Under these parameters Belgium is doing particularly badly (518 per million). Spain (510), Italy (453) and France (357) are all worse than the UK (311). Sweden (233) and Ireland (223) have very similar figures despite very different approaches. USA’s figures are quite good (172) in comparison, but we’ll have to see what effect an early end to lockdown in several states will have.

Germany’s figures are 74 per million.

I am only commenting on the official graphs as presented at the Downing Street briefings. I haven’t looked at the worldometers site, but it is possible that comparisons there aren’t absolutely valid, as the data for each country is time shifted, as I’ve pointed out already. Different countries may be on different time trajectories. You’re right to point this out, though.

The output from Downing Street should present the data in the clearest and most transparent way each day.

[MrGongGong]

I do wish the daily briefings would

have folks from the government answering the questions they are asked ?
have folks from the government telling the truth?

would be a start

[johnb]

The deaths chart in the press briefings use the figures for hospital deaths by date reported. These can fluctuate wildly.

The following chart shows the hospital deaths for England by the date of death (columns) and by date reported (line).

The deaths by date of death for the last five days are very misleading because they will be subject to very significant revision, so I haven't included them.

I have estimated the future revisions which will occur as further data comes in over the future weeks.

[Dave2002]

have folks from the government answering the questions they are asked ?
have folks from the government telling the truth?

would be a start

As in X tests vs X tests capacity and now X access to tests!

[oddoneout]

As in X tests vs X tests capacity and now X access to tests!

And X tests worth taking? I gather some hospitals have told their staff not to get tests done at some facilities as the results are questionable even when they do arrive, which apparently too many do not. The hospitals are making their own arrangements.

[Cockney Sparrow]

From a commercial source but:

Do you need to wear a mask to avoid coronavirus?

I'm not sure how difficult / costly it is to obtain face masks. I haven't been out enough to make me concerned to get masks to use. Yet. If I was in Scotland I would be thinking how to make an effective mask and not deprive care/medical workers of the manufactured item.

This site seems to have useful information - including references to published studies. Can a DIY mask catch viruses?:

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/diy-homemade-mask-protect-virus-coronavirus/?rel=1

Can masks intercept Covid-19 particles?:

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/can-masks-capture-coronavirus/?rel=1

Merits of various materials to make masks:

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-diy-coronavirus-homemade-mask-material-covid/

NOTE: I have read (along the way) that some HEPA filters contain fibreglass strands - so take care to check before using that material.

If you are intending to source manufactured masks, information here that "ordinary" surgical masks are surprisingly effective in general:

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/n95-mask-surgical-prevent-transmission-coronavirus/?rel=1