Coronavirus

[LMcD]

The use of 'milestone' also suggests that the remaining distance to be covered is known, which it certainly isn't.

[LMcD]

Dominic Raab, interviewed on Sky News, has just said 'We've got capacity up to 51,000, so we're half way to our target'. So, when Matt Hancock said 'we shall carry out 100,000 tests s day by April 30th', did he mean 'we shall have capacity to carry out 100,000 tests a day by April 30th'?

[oddoneout]

Dominic Raab, interviewed on Sky News, has just said 'We've got capacity up to 51,000, so we're half way to our target'. So, when Matt Hancock said 'we shall carry out 100,000 tests s day by April 30th', did he mean 'we shall have capacity to carry out 100,000 tests a day by April 30th'?

Keir Starmer in PMQs didn't let Raab get away with confusing this issue - see towards the end of this. I liked the "I didn't need correcting..." from Starmer

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/22/covid-19-starmer-grills-raab-over-care-home-deaths-in-first-virtual-pmqs

On current 'performance' I think it's more a case of 'we have the capacity' than x tests will be carried out. A booking system that falls over under the pressure doesn't exactly help...
On the plus side, in my neck of the woods care workers who were originally told that they would have to make a 300 mile round trip, which then improved to 160 miles at another location, for testing, should - in theory - be able to get tested in their home county - if they can get to testing centres - a reduced bus service in a large rural county translates to no service in a lot of cases - but rather more manageable.

[Dave2002]

Keir Starmer in PMQs didn't let Raab get away with confusing this issue - see towards the end of this. I liked the "I didn't need correcting..." from Starmer

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/22/covid-19-starmer-grills-raab-over-care-home-deaths-in-first-virtual-pmqs

On current 'performance' I think it's more a case of 'we have the capacity' than x tests will be carried out. A booking system that falls over under the pressure doesn't exactly help...
On the plus side, in my neck of the woods care workers who were originally told that they would have to make a 300 mile round trip, which then improved to 160 miles at another location, for testing, should - in theory - be able to get tested in their home county - if they can get to testing centres - a reduced bus service in a large rural county translates to no service in a lot of cases - but rather more manageable.

Though the whole business of testing may be yet more combobulating. What do the tests results actually mean, and how might they be used? There is currently some concern that it may be possible to be reinfected with this disease, or to continue to spread it, even if a test shows previous exposure and infection with CV-19. Is a negative result more helpful? It might be it that would guarantee that a particular person is “clean”, but tomorrow of course they might not be.

Given that each test may in fact be unreliable, it may be a very uncertain exercise for some time. Presumably over time it may be possible to spot whether some tests appear to be more reliable, and then to make a better determination of whether decisions based on such tests are “correct”, or not. This may take some time. If we’re lucky the first tests will turn out to be accurate/reliable, and then we might find very low reinfection rates, and low rates of onward transmission, but if we’re unlucky the whole effort will be so uncertain as to be meaningless.

Over time I expect better data, methods and decisions/strategies will emerge, but it’s too early to tell right now, IMO.

[MrGongGong]

Today's "Thick as Pigsh*t" award goes to (she must have a mantlepiece full by now)

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/priti-patel-ridiculed-after-announcing-shoplifting-is-down-compared-to-year-before-1-6624258?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons&fbclid=IwAR0ksac-pPk0jHwEa3YFJzADrr-bEcwaCQQjtRC9sFIOhhpr-8BCYmNtGsQ

Eddie Mair on the "briefings"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKgLTfH0Z78&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1Jev6MhE8tXD7iKJDEMSDDH5s8Yhd7HCz9ZF6aEwIFa_TIkZHbtH6FTeo

"Stay on message
Protect your backside
Save your job"

[Dave2002]

Then there's "collateral damage" - https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-new...ing_newsletter

Morons .... now you have to figure out who .... Very sad.

[oddoneout]

Trouble is the bleach thing was already out there.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/18/bleach-miracle-cure-uganda-us-pastor-robert-baldwin-sam-little

I knew I'd seen something about this 'cure' before Trump waded in and made everything so much worse.

[oddoneout]

Though the whole business of testing may be yet more combobulating. What do the tests results actually mean, and how might they be used? There is currently some concern that it may be possible to be reinfected with this disease, or to continue to spread it, even if a test shows previous exposure and infection with CV-19. Is a negative result more helpful? It might be it that would guarantee that a particular person is “clean”, but tomorrow of course they might not be.

Given that each test may in fact be unreliable, it may be a very uncertain exercise for some time. Presumably over time it may be possible to spot whether some tests appear to be more reliable, and then to make a better determination of whether decisions based on such tests are “correct”, or not. This may take some time. If we’re lucky the first tests will turn out to be accurate/reliable, and then we might find very low reinfection rates, and low rates of onward transmission, but if we’re unlucky the whole effort will be so uncertain as to be meaningless.

Over time I expect better data, methods and decisions/strategies will emerge, but it’s too early to tell right now, IMO.

There are indeed a great many questions, but I take the view that, given the criminal incompetence of this government, getting the framework up and running (hopefully before the end of the year when the elephant in the room will squash everything else out of existence) at least gives the opportunity to get something useful - possibly - when methods and materials allow. If the wherewithal for testing(eg sites, eligible individual priorities, lab analysis facilities) doesn't even exist then it doesn't really make that much difference what sort of tests are available and what the results might indicate because no tests is no data.

[johnb]

In case anyone might be interested these are sources of government information that I have discovered:

The headline data used in the daily press conferences, with some additional information regarding Pillar 1, 2 and 3 testing:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

The daily "Dashboard" with headline figures, regional & Upper Tier LA information, etc, etc and download links for deaths and cases (you might need to use a pivot table to get the download data into a more usable format):

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.92112722.976375764.1586449922-858510441.1586449922

(This link *might* change from day to day, but there is also a link to the Dashboard on the previous webpage.)

Downloadable files for both Daily and Total Deaths in England
Each file gives the figures by date of death, with sheets giving different "views" of the data:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

The slides and datasets used in the daily press conferences.

https://www.gov.uk/government/government-efficiency-transparency-and-accountability

Scroll down to find them.
(You might need to use a pivot table to get some of the data into a better format.)
Sometimes the links on that webpage are slow to be updated but the format of the URL for each day's files is:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-22-april-2020

When the day of the month is in single figures it is NOT preceded with a zero, e.g. "-9-april-2020" not "-09-april-2020"

National COVID-19 surveillance reports
One pdf file contains graphics, and might be of interest.
The other is very technical and is probably meant for academics and health professionals

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

[Dave2002]

At least BJ hasn't proposed anything totally crazy now he's gone back to No 10.

[MrGongGong]

At least BJ hasn't proposed anything totally crazy now he's gone back to No 10.

One of the things he said was this

If this virus were a physical assailant

an unexpected and invisible mugger

which I can tell you from personal experience it is

NO NO NO it wasn't unexpected you idiot

He got himself infected by acting in his usual tw*ttish way

This whole thing was entirely predicted and known


So he has learnt nothing
and his pants are still on fire

Just as expected

[Flay]

With apologies to Kenneth Grahame....

At last the hour for the Cabinet meeting began to draw near, and Boris, who on leaving the others had retired to his bedroom, was still sitting there, melancholy and thoughtful. His brow resting on his hand, he pondered long and deeply. Gradually his countenance cleared, and he began to smile long, slow smiles. Then he took to giggling in a shy, self-conscious manner. At last he got up, locked the door, drew the curtains across the windows, collected all the chairs in the room and arranged them in a semicircle, and took up his position in front of them, swelling visibly. Then he bowed, coughed twice, and, letting himself go, with uplifted voice he sang, to the enraptured audience that his imagination so clearly saw:

BORIS'S LAST LITTLE SONG

Boris—came—home!
There was panic in the parlours and howling in the halls,
There was crying in the Commons and shrieking in the Lords,
When Boris—came—home!

When Boris—came—home!
There was smashing in of window and crashing in of door,
There was chivvying of reporters that fainted on the floor,
When Boris—came—home!

Bang! go the drums!
The trumpeters are tooting and the soldiers are saluting,
And the cannon they are shooting and the motor-cars are hooting,
As the—Hero—comes!

Shout—Hoo-ray!
And let each one of the crowd try and shout it very loud,
In honour of a PM of whom you're justly proud,
For it's Boris's—great—day!

He sang this very loud, with great unction and expression; and when he had done, he sang it all over again.
Then he heaved a deep sigh; a long, long, long sigh.
Then he dipped his hairbrush in the water-jug, parted his hair in the middle, and plastered it down very straight and sleek on each side of his face; and, unlocking the door, went quietly down the stairs to greet his guests, who he knew must be assembling in the Cabinet room.
All the Cabinet cheered when he entered, and crowded round to congratulate him and say nice things about his courage, and his cleverness, and his fighting qualities; but Boris only smiled faintly, and murmured, "Not at all!" Or, sometimes, for a change, "On the contrary!" Gove, who was standing on the hearthrug, describing to an admiring circle of friends exactly how he would have managed things had he been there, came forward with a shout, threw his arm round Boris's neck, and tried to take him round the room in triumphal progress; but Boris, in a mild way, was rather snubby to him, remarking gently, as he disengaged himself, "Cummings was the master mind; the Raab and Hancock bore the brunt of the fighting; I merely served in the ranks and did little or nothing." The MPs were evidently puzzled and taken aback by this unexpected attitude of his; and Boris felt, as he moved from one guest to the other, making his modest responses, that he was an object of absorbing interest to every one.
Cummings had ordered everything of the best, and the banquet was a great success. There was much talking and laughter and chaff among the MPs, but through it all Boris, who of course was in the chair, looked down his nose and murmured pleasant nothings to the MPs on either side of him. At intervals he stole a glance at the Cummings and Raab, and always when he looked they were staring at each other with their mouths open; and this gave him the greatest satisfaction. Some of the younger and livelier MPs as the evening wore on, got whispering to each other that things were not so amusing as they used to be in the good old days; and there were some knockings on the table and cries of "Boris! Speech! Speech from Boris! Song! Boris's song!" But Boris only shook his head gently, raised one hand in mild protest, and, by pressing delicacies on his guests, by topical small-talk, and by earnest inquiries after members of their families not yet old enough to appear at social functions, managed to convey to them that this dinner was being run on strictly conventional lines.

He was indeed an altered Boris!

I wish..

[Dave2002]

This whole thing was entirely predicted and known

I don't disagree with much of what you have written, but given that people may take notice of what he says (sometimes one wonders why they bother ... well actually, most of the time ...) he has said pretty much the right kind of thing this time. At least he hasn't come up with crackpot suggestions, even in jest (possibly), which have led to completely pointless injuries and deaths elsewhere - for that we should be thankful.

He basically has said very little, hasn't really "offered hope", but made it look as though he might have. I expect there'll be a bouncing around of different phrases over the coming months - even years - so that nobody will be accused of actually saying or doing anything totally outrageous. So we might see "glimmer of light", "end of tunnel", "not out of the woods", "we must stay firm", and any number of phrases which will be used (hopefully?) to stop people going completely bonkers while there's any chance that the virus could build up a second wave.

The notion that the virus is like a mugger - has a persona - is of course mad. It is just a thing which has no plans, no particular intent - it just does. It's not plotting a comeback - it just will if people don't reduce the spread as suggested. Maybe some people like to anthropomorphise these things, but it doesn't really help in terms of practical action, but it may make some people feel better.

[Bryn]

Given the failure to create any vaccine for other coronaviruses such as the various common cold coronaviruses, the only way of ridding humans of it may be the total denial of a human host for SARS-CoV-2. That would mean maintaining current measures of denial of transmission on a world scale, relaxing them only when the infection level drops to zero in any given population and reintroduction of such measures if resurgence occurs.

[Dave2002]

Given the failure to create any vaccine for other coronaviruses such as the various common cold coronaviruses, the only way of ridding humans of it may be the total denial of a human host for SARS-CoV-2. That would mean maintaining current measures of denial of transmission on a world scale, relaxing them only when the infection level drops to zero in any given population and reintroduction of such measures if resurgence occurs.

However, I think the other coronaviruses do mutate quite rapidly, which so far I have hope to believe is not the case for Covid-19, though it would appear to have split off into several variants, as otherwise it probably wouldn't be possible to determine where the "last known source" of some outbreaks was. This might give sufficient time to develop vaccines against strains of CV-19, even if that had to be done every year.

In the case of Spanish-Flu (1918-..) I don't think it was even thought feasible to make vaccines, but it was an option for SARS, though a vaccine was not developed, and that original disease seems to have either disappeared or gone to a very low level. That is another possibility for CV-19.

I think the message is gradually dawning to the politicians, but they are unable to express this to the populace at large. There are other solutions of course - science fiction writers have probably anticipated this. Firstly, kill off all humans - so that way the virus can't spread amongst humans. Not a good idea, I'd suggest, if even from a purely selfish point of view. Next idea, try to do everything with robots, and try to develop a creature which is half biological human, and otherwise mechanical/electronic. Finally, give up on biology altogether, and have self replicating robots which are sufficiently human like that they could be considered as part of "our species".

Hopefully none of these suggestions will be needed in the next few years.