This is Bound to End in Tears

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  • Lat-Literal
    Guest
    • Aug 2015
    • 6983

    Originally posted by Serial_Apologist View Post
    I would agree with you there, Lat. Indeed, what is regarded as the political "centre" is a shifting, essentially artificial concept, which varies from era to era, and country to country, dependent on majority voting patterns. From the point of view of elected British governments between 1979 and today, the policies of the Atlee govrnment, and even the Conservative one under Churchill that followed, would have been regarded by the main disseminators of ideology, the mainstream press, as very far to the left. What is interesting to me, because it has become a renewed factor in the resurgence of nationalism, is the determing role in politics of nation states, which had until recently long been regarded as subordinated to the activities of the global players of the economic scene, namely the multinational firms, with their ability to switch operations at the drop of a hat in maintaining their respective monopoly positions. Political commentators were of one voice in insisting that governments - which is what we're really talking about when it concerns national sovereignty, independence or whatever - were now essentially disempowered in the determination of the fates of whole peoples. This, as much as anything, I would argue, is the real reason behind the impotence of politicians to meet the large claims of their election manifestoes: passing from a time when the form of the state, and all that which constitutes it, evolved according to the needs and interests of society's dominant forces, (read, class), to one in for which it becomes the apologist and primary means of support when things get rough. Today we can see where this has led: namely to a situation in which the "political class", having effectively reconciled itself to its subordinate role and palmed off its illusory image of itself to the electorate as its representatives, has lost its way, whereas we, now, and they, for a very long time, have known in their heart of hearts that they are impotent without being able to demonstrate power - the powerful forces that were once mobiliseable now reduced to temporary voluntary election flyer deliverers and call centre reminderers. The change back to politicians being called out to deliver probably stems back to the capitalists having had to fall back on reliance on the state's ability (duty?) to fix things in the immediate wake of the banking crash of 2007/8, prior to which state backup to economic and monetary functioning had been reduced to the money supply and role of the head of the Bank of England and his equivalents abroad and in the IMF. The problem is that the politicians have forgotten how to undertake such a role. Gordon Brown may have been the last in the line.
    Yes. What you are saying is rather profound here. It was around 2007/8 when there was a slow, dawning realisation among the public that politicians were comparatively powerless in relation to financiers. It came to many as a shock. However, it had been brewing for some time. Not since 1979/80 with the beginnings of economic shifts following the election then. Probably not in 1990 when Mrs Thatcher fell. No, I think it was at some point in the 2000s too. The weakness of politicians would perhaps have been understood better by electorates in countries where weather and other climate issues can create chaos on a regular basis. Italian politics have often been a stratovolcano, albeit tempered very briefly by Mussolini.

    This is not to imply that members of the public in fairly ordinary times have ever been ardent supporters of political strength or have wished to have a close relationship with politics in general. Good politics for those seated masses is a politics that rarely needs to be thought about. That is, until and unless the duty of voting is required so that it can then again be off the radar. So, then, one has to ask what politics stood for in public opinion after the war and before the 2007/8 crash. In other words, if you peel back the nationalism that has arisen and then peel back the financiers' revelation of political weakness, what do you find? It isn't total indifference but it is where most people hope to be again "after this Brexit thing".

    Of course, ever since the mid 1940s, there have been ardent socialists and conservatives, ardent Europhobes and Europhiles, and so on. But specifically on the latter two, they could only have altered the culture so radically if something had been felt to be lost. It is that which has led to everyone becoming so engrossed in and around those agendas. When it came to transient quibbles or, at most, extensive moaning, the public were somewhat engaged in the Blair era with Iraq and the parliamentary expenses outrage. The considerable expansion of EU was barely noted even by politics watchers. In the time of John Major, neither the Maastricht Treaty nor Black Friday captured the imagination of the public as much as curly bananas and a series of old fashioned scandals. In the 1970s/1980s it was strikes and international causes - Live Aid - followed by the end of the Soviet Union, itself underemphasised. The increase in the number of member countries with Greece then Iberian enlargement wasn't even a blip and much the same was true of an expansion northwards five years later.

    Given the obvious importance of all these things, one has to conclude that there was something more powerful behind their inconsequential appearance to the public than it seemed. And I would say that it was the war. It was the feeling that British politicians had had the power to lead to victory, albeit against the odds, and then one around the knowledge that they were subsequently booted out. Mr Attlee's Labour Party. The power symbol of recompense for ordinary man and a logical enough springboard for "it must never happen again".

    Once that was in place, politics could happily be forgotten. Peace. A return to the cosiness of not having to be involved. Rationing ends. Eden comes and goes quickly over something called Suez. He is deemed not typical but unusually weak. Nice man. Not up to the job, sadly. The middle aged get their own homes. The new teenagers get their own lifestyles. As the 1960s commence, there are some strange bohemian people with CND placards, harmless actually when you get to know them, although somewhat eccentric and irrelevant. Later, America survives Vietnam. The protesters were presumably all on drugs which hopefully are a passing phase. There is no real connection with what the young men were put through any more than anyone gets to grips with the atrocities of racial divisiveness. It is over there. They didn't join us in our war until late on anyway so what do you expect? And as for Nixon!

    I can recall the first EEC referendum. Compared with now, it was a mere parlour game. Amateurish. Not as significant as decimalisation with which it could even on occasion be confused. But then these were times when one had to take on board a man walking on the moon as the new normal and pretend away the ever present nuclear threat so that it was almost unreality. Indeed, life beyond the iron curtain was safely more remote than outer space. So that WW2 power - the power of stability and security - was so assumed in the unconscious, it didn't need to be acknowledged much, let alone scrutinised or debated for ever more. Hence there would be a bit of whinging about old Wilson or old Heath, neither of whom seemed to be any sort of perfect picture, but that was all. Life could be lived more or less without politics. That was politics. It was also the hidden sense of political strength.

    We forget now just how apolitical people were. You may have been a part of a generation which was unusually politically active in the 1970s. You were still a rarity compared with the millions, much as I was when embarking on a politics A'level course in 1979. To mention it unassumingly in the East Lane market was like declaring that one was going to be Prime Minister followed by the receipt of quizzical and rather distant looks. Sure, there were the Harmans and the Hewitts of this world who seemed overly interested in skin colour, gender, the far right and police brutality. They were on the fringes - obsessive - and not to be taken as seriously as the mainly male trade unions. But even with the unions, there was no real fear of revolution. It was the stuff of banter - red versus blue and vice versa - with daft nicknames and a lot of laughter. Had there been a revolution, I am not entirely sure that many would have been bothered either way. They would have hoped to soldier on somehow, whatever. What actually got their goat was when union action affected their dustbin collections.

    Mrs Thatcher did not achieve a resounding victory in 1979. By 1981, the Government was seen as so ineffectual that Thatcherism appeared to have been an 18 month experiment. But few knew the global context in which it sat or that Milton was to be to the next 34 years what Winston had been to the previous 34. They couldn't do. It would have meant that the politicians were losing power by their very own initiatives which in turn would have suggested wars could no longer be won and the threat of nuclear oblivion was, after all, too real. Things have changed. They always do change. They are also largely left to feel the same as they ever were. For better and worse that is how things will more or less remain. What the union strikes were to dustbins, the current political crisis is to armchair living. And nationalism, a reaction, is mostly a big placard which is just insisting "we don't have volcanos here".
    Last edited by Lat-Literal; 23-01-19, 07:51.

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    • Lat-Literal
      Guest
      • Aug 2015
      • 6983

      Originally posted by french frank View Post
      Just briefly, however did I come to forget Seb Dance MEP?



      I wouldn't have known his name and obviously wouldn't recognise his face.

      Thank you for your other comments in post 163.

      Comment

      • Dave2002
        Full Member
        • Dec 2010
        • 18009

        Today we hear that Jacob Rees Mogg suggests that TM's proposals could be modified to be satisfactory.

        I'm sure that might be true, but surely now the country deserves not simply the minimum modifications so that the Tories and JRM's buddies are satisfied, but rather modifications which will give the best for the UK, which was what I thought the whole point of the (possibly/probably misguided) exercise was. We don't want a "solution" which is the bare minimum to keep a few people in power, at the expense of everyone else.

        Comment

        • french frank
          Administrator/Moderator
          • Feb 2007
          • 30255

          Originally posted by Dave2002 View Post
          Today we hear that Jacob Rees Mogg suggests that TM's proposals could be modified to be satisfactory.

          I'm sure that might be true, but surely now the country deserves not simply the minimum modifications so that the Tories and JRM's buddies are satisfied, but rather modifications which will give the best for the UK, which was what I thought the whole point of the (possibly/probably misguided) exercise was. We don't want a "solution" which is the bare minimum to keep a few people in power, at the expense of everyone else.
          I'm still really, really puzzled: they still push for a "sunset clause" on the backstop i.e. a guarantee that the backstop will cease to have force on a certain date. But the backstop is the one thing the EU say they will not renegotiate. Barnier now says the EU might move on a customs union and access to the single market - which the ERG (at least) will not accept. Willingly. Might as well toss a coin: Heads we're in, Tails we're out.
          It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.

          Comment

          • Padraig
            Full Member
            • Feb 2013
            • 4233

            Originally posted by french frank View Post
            Might as well toss a coin: Heads we're in, Tails we're out.
            It's Heads! Hurrah!

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            • teamsaint
              Full Member
              • Nov 2010
              • 25200

              To mis quote the well known cricket joke ( referring to (?) Mike Atherton’s long losing run with the coin) , they are bunch of useless tossers.....
              I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.

              I am not a number, I am a free man.

              Comment

              • Dave2002
                Full Member
                • Dec 2010
                • 18009

                Originally posted by french frank View Post
                I'm still really, really puzzled: they still push for a "sunset clause" on the backstop i.e. a guarantee that the backstop will cease to have force on a certain date. But the backstop is the one thing the EU say they will not renegotiate. Barnier now says the EU might move on a customs union and access to the single market - which the ERG (at least) will not accept. Willingly. Might as well toss a coin: Heads we're in, Tails we're out.
                I understand that for some people - particularly close to the border with Eire - that the backstop is important. For me it's hardly the most significant aspect of the whole business. I think the line that we're more or less happy (!!!) with it but just need the backstop issue "solved" is a complete misrepresentation of what I would want. I can't speak for anyone else, but Mrs M seems to think she can.

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                • Lat-Literal
                  Guest
                  • Aug 2015
                  • 6983

                  Originally posted by french frank View Post
                  I'm still really, really puzzled: they still push for a "sunset clause" on the backstop i.e. a guarantee that the backstop will cease to have force on a certain date. But the backstop is the one thing the EU say they will not renegotiate. Barnier now says the EU might move on a customs union and access to the single market - which the ERG (at least) will not accept. Willingly. Might as well toss a coin: Heads we're in, Tails we're out.
                  There is a lot, actually, that the public doesn't know.

                  For example, it is inconceivable that there are not border checks already via vehicle registration plate recognition. That is because such things must surely be in operation all across the EU to address non European terrorism. Next, the Good Friday Agreement does not specifically preclude a harder border at any time. What it does do is require border cooperation.

                  That probably has the strong implication that there should be no harder border. Indeed, cooperation would lead to the fulfilment of my first point. But there is more. In 2001, during the outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease, the then Defence Minister of the Republic, Michael Smyth, denounced a lack of action to prevent the problem spreading to the Irish Republic, something which sadly it then did. In particular, he complained in public that the Royal Ulster Constabulary had not been allowed by Westminster to be an adequate enforcer on the border to prevent the trafficking of sick animals. Today Fianna Fail's official line on the border is the same as that of the Fine Gael Government. However, Fine Gael doesn't trust it and at least one prominent Fianna Fail councillor has said in the press that not only could she live with a harder border following Brexit but she actively wants one. I won't name her here.

                  It remains that the vast majority of us in both countries and the EU definitely don't want one. But Simon Coveney somewhat let the cat out of the bag last week by forgetting to turn off his microphone after an interview. What he was heard saying was that the Republic would regrettably have to put in a harder border if there was no deal. This was then hushed up but one senses that this is the true EU position as it would lean on the Republic. Given all these things but that in particular, everyone at Westminster who could live with the May Deal as long as it did not involve the backstop is doing no one any great service with their interventions. It is pretty clear that the EU would have to shift on that deal just before 29 March to prevent itself with the Republic having to erect a border nobody wants. So letting the clock tick down is almost certainly not towards no deal but rather to the EU reopening the deal.

                  Of course, if you are in one of the camps that simply wants us to stay in the EU, then much of what I have said is irrelevant.
                  Last edited by Lat-Literal; 23-01-19, 21:56.

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                  • MrGongGong
                    Full Member
                    • Nov 2010
                    • 18357

                    Originally posted by Lat-Literal View Post

                    For example, it is inconceivable that there are not border checks already via vehicle registration plate recognition. That is because such things must surely be in operation all across the EU to address non European terrorism. .
                    If you drive accross the "border" between many EU countries there really isn't anything apart from a change in road surface and a sign to say you have moved from one country to another. Just like driving to Scotland.
                    You can't "take control of your borders" then insist that you don't have one.
                    All the nonsene about electronic systems ignores the way in which PEOPLE can simply walk from one place to another. The folks who insist on the "taking control of our borders" yet don't want to have one seem more than a little confused IMV

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                    • Lat-Literal
                      Guest
                      • Aug 2015
                      • 6983

                      The other aspect to this is Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon has always been adamant that Scottish independence would not lead to any harder border between Scotland and England. So-called experts - legal, constitutional - have frequently disagreed but their voices have been drowned out by the politics on all sides. Mostly she has been believed. This is essential to the SNP because they know that their case for winning almost certainly falls with the very idea of it. If the EU lets it go to no deal at the end of March and it has to require the Republic of Ireland to erect a border, then it will be immediately clear to everyone that this would also apply between Scotland and England in the event of Scottish independence. The EU can't risk being politically against the SNP in that way as it would imply unequivocal meddling in internal politics. Hence, there is no likelihood that the EU would permit itself no deal over renegotiation.

                      Originally posted by MrGongGong View Post
                      If you drive accross the "border" between many EU countries there really isn't anything apart from a change in road surface and a sign to say you have moved from one country to another. Just like driving to Scotland.
                      You can't "take control of your borders" then insist that you don't have one.
                      All the nonsene about electronic systems ignores the way in which PEOPLE can simply walk from one place to another. The folks who insist on the "taking control of our borders" yet don't want to have one seem more than a little confused IMV
                      I can tell you as a cast iron fact that there is vehicle plate recognition within an eight minute walk from me, not that most people are aware of it in the slightest. I am a quarter of a mile inside the Greater London boundary. Greater London needs to be protected from any incoming international terrorism. So it isn't just between countries. As I said, it is all across the EU.

                      One of the interesting parallels is that there is no great sign here saying "you are entering London" - some local people are aware of where the GL border is; most haven't got a clue.

                      You will find a sign in the trees denoting Croydon but it looks like nonsense when Croydon is known to be urban and six miles away. And there are grey areas, possibly deliberate. My TFL Oyster Card takes me someway into the "Republic of Surrey". My GP here is retiring and I have already been moved to one "over there" while my health authority is now "Surrey"
                      Last edited by Lat-Literal; 23-01-19, 22:58.

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                      • french frank
                        Administrator/Moderator
                        • Feb 2007
                        • 30255

                        Originally posted by Lat-Literal View Post
                        The other aspect to this is Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon has always been adamant that Scottish independence would not lead to any harder border between Scotland and England.
                        I don't think she could be 'adamant' since it wouldn't be her decision to make.

                        As I understand it, her point was a different one: Unonists argued before the referendum, that if Scotland got its independence it wouldn't be able to be a member of the EU without that creating a hard border. It was an argument against independence. Sturgeon was taking up May's argument on the Irish border, that somehow a soft border in Ireland was possible. Sturgeon's point was that May/the Unionists wouldn't be able to use that particular argument against Scottish independence and at the same time argue that a hard border in Ireland could be avoided.

                        The Conservative view: “Given the UK is leaving the EU in March, and given it’s stated SNP policy for an independent Scotland to join the EU, it’s difficult to see how a hard border could be avoided.” But they're now saying a hard Irish border can be avoided. Not consistent.
                        It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.

                        Comment

                        • Lat-Literal
                          Guest
                          • Aug 2015
                          • 6983

                          Originally posted by french frank View Post
                          I don't think she could be 'adamant' since it wouldn't be her decision to make.

                          As I understand it, her point was a different one: Unonists argued before the referendum, that if Scotland got its independence it wouldn't be able to be a member of the EU without that creating a hard border. It was an argument against independence. Sturgeon was taking up May's argument on the Irish border, that somehow a soft border in Ireland was possible. Sturgeon's point was that May/the Unionists wouldn't be able to use that particular argument against Scottish independence and at the same time argue that a hard border in Ireland could be avoided.

                          The Conservative view: “Given the UK is leaving the EU in March, and given it’s stated SNP policy for an independent Scotland to join the EU, it’s difficult to see how a hard border could be avoided.” But they're now saying a hard Irish border can be avoided. Not consistent.
                          Thank you. In June 2016, Nicola Sturgeon said on the Andrew Marr Show "I don't want in any circumstances to see a border between Scotland and England." That sounds adamant to me. Scottish Conservatives - and almost certainly Labour - believed that SNP hadn't got to grips with the border implications during the 2014 Referendum campaign, not least for their own purposes. One take on this is indeed that the latter was used as an argument against independence.

                          Another is that a situation in which an independent Scotland was in the EU and and an England was outside the EU would not be in the control of either country so far as a border was concerned. Both would be told by the EU what was required by the EU. So in some ways I am agreeing with you but in other ways I am not. It is the same juggling act here in which she is implying that Unionists would want a harder border by saying that Unionists were saying it was inevitable.

                          All that was being said by Unionists beyond any politicking was that the circumstances would require it as an EU matter of fact. No Unionist in their right mind of whatever party political persuasion would have been actively wanting a harder border any more than the SNP would and for anyone to imply otherwise is simply incorrect. As much as Ms Sturgeon thinks there is a direct parallel with Northern Ireland, so do I, but our readings are different. It isn't what Unionists desire.

                          I say there is a direct parallel. It isn't quite that from a Unionist perspective although it is from the Scottish Nationalist one. This is to say that the Republic of Ireland is a separate country now. A harder border could imply to Irish Nationalists that the Union was attempting to reinforce the Union whereas if Scotland became independent a harder border would be more likely to imply a reinforcing of Scottish independence. It makes no logical sense for Unionists to do it.

                          As for the Northern Ireland border in actuality, any true implication that a harder border would reinforce the Union was lost many years ago when everyone agreed that it was more trouble than it was worth. From an English Unionist perspective, ensuing mayhem could lead to Irish reunification. Much more likely, it would lead to more Irish Unionist intransigence and be costly in all ways. If a hard border was erected by EU, it would know quickly that it was now embroiled.

                          Anyhow, if you can find a Con, Lab or LD MP who has ever said "I want a hard border if Scotland becomes independent", I would genuinely be very interested to see the quote!
                          Last edited by Lat-Literal; 24-01-19, 00:02.

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                          • french frank
                            Administrator/Moderator
                            • Feb 2007
                            • 30255

                            Originally posted by Lat-Literal View Post
                            Anyhow, if you can find a Con, Lab or LD MP who has ever said "I want a hard border if Scotland becomes independent", I would genuinely be very interested to see the quote!
                            Cutting quickly to the chase - No, I don't think any of them would want it: but the buck can be passed to the EU by saying EU rules would necessitate it (implication: you can't have independence if you don't want a hard border). Norway, being in the EEA, avoids a hard border; but it also accepts FMoP, pays a contribution and is part of the Single Market - all rejected by the hard Brexit group, who want Norway+++ (all the benefits without the responsibilities). Also, there are not the political complications with its neighbours which apply to N. Ireland and, to a lesser extent, with Scotland.
                            It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.

                            Comment

                            • Lat-Literal
                              Guest
                              • Aug 2015
                              • 6983

                              Originally posted by french frank View Post
                              Cutting quickly to the chase - No, I don't think any of them would want it: but the buck can be passed to the EU by saying EU rules would necessitate it (implication: you can't have independence if you don't want a hard border). Norway, being in the EEA, avoids a hard border; but it also accepts FMoP, pays a contribution and is part of the Single Market - all rejected by the hard Brexit group, who want Norway+++ (all the benefits without the responsibilities). Also, there are not the political complications with its neighbours which apply to N. Ireland and, to a lesser extent, with Scotland.
                              Again, yes to some of your post and no to the rest.

                              Sorry.

                              Where the EU requires hard borders and nobody else of any standing wants them, it is hardly passing the buck onto the EU to say that it is all its fault or even providing the scope to "pass the buck" onto the EU. It is all its fault - or alternatively it is all its brilliance if you happen to be the one person who bucks the trend and thinks hard borders are just great.

                              Yes, Norway avoids a hard border by being in the EEA or accurately the EU and its member Sweden avoid a hard border by Norway being in the EEA rather than in nothing at all. But being just in the EEA is not SNP policy, nor is it the chosen future path of the Republic of Ireland. Of course, if there is ever a Norwexit and the EU has already felt obliged to erect a hard border on the island of Ireland after a no deal Brexit, it will by precedent have the joy of being expected to place a hard border on the entire Norway-Sweden border. 1,360 km!

                              Everything in these posts points to the virtual impossibility of EU accepting no deal which means the May deal would be improved if the rest of Parliament just let the process continue.
                              Last edited by Lat-Literal; 24-01-19, 11:30.

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                              • french frank
                                Administrator/Moderator
                                • Feb 2007
                                • 30255

                                No need to apologising for disagreeing

                                Originally posted by Lat-Literal View Post
                                Where the EU requires hard borders and nobody else of any standing wants them, it is hardly passing the buck onto the EU to say that it is all its fault or even providing the scope to "pass the buck" onto the EU. It is all its fault - or alternatively it is all its brilliance if you happen to be the one person who bucks the trend and thinks hard borders are just great.
                                I can't see that it is "all the EU's fault": the Norway example shows how hard borders are avoided. It's not the EU's fault if the UK says: No to EEA, not to FMoP, No Contributions, No to Single Market. In this case, it's about the UK's non negotiable 'red lines'.

                                Originally posted by Lat-Literal View Post
                                Yes, Norway avoids a hard border by being in the EEA or accurately the EU and its member Sweden avoid a hard border by Norway being in the EEA rather than in nothing at all.
                                All right: Norway and the EU avoid a hard border by having come to the present agreement - which the UK doesn't want.

                                Originally posted by Lat-Literal View Post
                                But being just in the EEA is not SNP policy, nor is it the chosen future path of the Republic of Ireland.
                                SNP policy won't be clear until/unless Scotland has independence. At least if the UK is out, it can't veto an application from Scotland to join as an independent state. Why would it need to be a 'future path for the RoI'? They don't want to leave the EU either.

                                Originally posted by Lat-Literal View Post
                                Of course, if there is ever a Norwexit and the EU has already felt obliged to erect a hard border on the island of Ireland after a no deal Brexit, it will by precedent have the joy of being expected to place a hard border on the entire Norway-Sweden border. 1,360 km!
                                Theoretically - but Norway knows which side its bread is buttered on. As Switzerland does

                                Originally posted by Lat-Literal View Post
                                Everything in these posts points to the virtual impossibility of EU accepting no deal which means the May deal would be improved if the rest of Parliament just let the process continue.
                                Ask Switzerland about that.
                                It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.

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