Syria

[Serial_Apologist]

It would be suspicious if international aid agencies were not allowed in at least, to distribute humanitarian relief. That would also buy time to see how the political situation was settling down. If one single priority were to be established, I wonder what it would be?

Essential to imposing security establishing a verifiably transparent system of policing with open justice, overseen by qualified UN-agreed observers as a prequel to mass mobilising the populace for such essentials as debris clearance, fixing sewers, drains, water, electrical and gas supplies, shelter encampments for the de-housed, health facilities and basic product distribution. All to be synchronised in consultation involving UN representatives and voluntary charities, the provisional government and agreed other party/group signitaries, along with religious and community leaders of reliable repute. That's a start. Any better ideas?

[Serial_Apologist]

How do you know what I am wishing for?

Based on the unevidenced mistrust implicit in your previous message, to be able to say "I told you so" could act to foreclose beneficial options. We may be proved right or wrong on character and motivations, but of utmost importance at this stage is to tread diplomatically and not prejudge or give indications of such in briefings offstage.

[richardfinegold]

“Unevidenced Mistrust”? The Rebels had formerly been part of Al-Queda. I would say that provides a significant basis for mistrust. As they are, apparently, the current hand on the rudder, then the world needs to deal with them. One hopes that they are not just emulating the strategy of the Taliban, which is to speak the soothing phrases that the non Islamic World wants to hear. This process may take a few years.
It would be a blessing if enough stability occurs to allow the Syrian diaspora to return, if they wish. Stability in the region is self evidently a desirable goal. However the recent history of the Middle East suggests that aid of any kind is easily diverted into military means. There hasn’t been a reliable Civil Society in Syria since the Assads took over. I am highly skeptical that this is going to turn out well

[french frank]

Essential to imposing security establishing a verifiably transparent system of policing with open justice, overseen by qualified UN-agreed observers as a prequel to mass mobilising the populace for such essentials as debris clearance, fixing sewers, drains, water, electrical and gas supplies, shelter encampments for the de-housed, health facilities and basic product distribution. All to be synchronised in consultation involving UN representatives and voluntary charities, the provisional government and agreed other party/group signitaries, along with religious and community leaders of reliable repute. That's a start. Any better ideas?

No better one, I'd go with that. At some point one side has to act on trust, and one would expect the initiative to come from an established free, civilised, democratic (and great/powerful) quarter. Does one exist now?

[Dave2002]

I've no objection to the discussion continuing, though I doubt there's much we can usefully say.

Useful to whom?

Seems good to me to have discussions, though as mentioned we may not have sufficient expertise or knowledge in the case of Syria, though such issues are not unique to Syria.
I guess most of us hope that things will improve [whatever that means], but it is probably too early to tell yet.

There has been mention of a maxim "An enemy of my enemy is my friend ..." which some people think makes a kind of sense, but that is by no means a sure thing. One of my enemies' enemies may be just as bad in our view - which is something to consider.

[Serial_Apologist]

“Unevidenced Mistrust”? The Rebels had formerly been part of Al-Queda. I would say that provides a significant basis for mistrust. As they are, apparently, the current hand on the rudder, then the world needs to deal with them. One hopes that they are not just emulating the strategy of the Taliban, which is to speak the soothing phrases that the non Islamic World wants to hear. This process may take a few years.
It would be a blessing if enough stability occurs to allow the Syrian diaspora to return, if they wish. Stability in the region is self evidently a desirable goal. However the recent history of the Middle East suggests that aid of any kind is easily diverted into military means. There hasn’t been a reliable Civil Society in Syria since the Assads took over. I am highly skeptical that this is going to turn out well

Trump taking over in short order won't exactly help either, so I'm hoping against hope (and I know, I am possibly naive) that the rebels show good faith.

[french frank]

Useful to whom?

Seems good to me to have discussions, though as mentioned we may not have sufficient expertise or knowledge in the case of Syria, though such issues are not unique to Syria.

I think my original comment had been superseded, with 4 days of discussion since then.

[Ian Thumwood]

I think that it is likely that the Kurds will split drom Syria. In my mind, they are key to preventing the return of IS.

i do not think the caae of Shamina Begum has been looked at carwfully enough by British governments. If anything happens to her, i can see it having massice repercussions for asylum seekers elsewhere. We need to bring her home.

[Frances_iom]

The Kurds might well be the reason for Syria to fail - Turkey is paranoid about a Kurdish state on its border - in fact the Turkish supported forces are actively fighting the Kurds - the USA support the Kurds especially as they are the gaolers to some 10,000 Is fighters + hosting the refugee camps for the IS women and children as for Ms Begum personally I would allow here back in UK but given the rightward movement of the populace I suspect she will have to remain in Syria unless IS regains some territory.

[Ian Thumwood]

I think she will ultimately be allowed back in the uk and will be given a new identity once she serves a jail sentence.

[Dave2002]

Things are perhaps improving, but they haven't settled down yet, and could get worse. It seems that some people are emigrating from Syria as they don't trust that the current situation will improve or remain stable.

This article is not the most recent, but gives some idea of some of the problems.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/at-syria-s-border-with-lebanon-refugees-return-home-while-others-flee-fearing-the-worst/ar-AA1vJzpY

There are sure to be others, with different views, which may gradually begin to seem more relevant, but it's already clear that the situation is not simply "fixed".

[french frank]

Another idea of the problems in today's news story of the burning of a Christmas tree in a Christian town.Not altogether surprising that Islamists would do such a thing, but the apparent brighter side is that they have apparently been condemned by the authorities and: "Videos of the aftermath showed a religious figure from the governing HTS rebel group assuring crowds who had gathered in Suqaylabiyah that the tree would be repaired before the morning. The man then held up a cross in a show of solidarity, something Islamist conservatives would not normally do."

Christians can be expected to protest, but was this man just an individual, or did he genuinely represent the government? All still on a knife edge.