Coronavirus

[Petrushka]

Difficult to square the latest news from scientists with BJ's suggested timeline at yesterday's press conference.

This is a misunderstanding of the phrase 'turn of the tide' which Johnson used. It doesn't mean it will all be over in 12 weeks but that by that time the battle will be being won with a possible end point in sight. Thus, Churchill cited the Battle of El Alamein in October 1942 and Stalingrad in 1942/3 as the time when the tide began to turn in the Allies favour but, of course, the war lasted for another three years.

The phrase merely transfers the ebb and flow of the ocean's tides to human affairs.

While Bojo is a clown he will know all this and by this definition could optimistically be somewhere about right.

[johnb]

This is not to consider the scale of the whole problem insignificant - which it certainly isn't - but even now the deaths world wide are not huge when considered on a very large scale, though a very large number of people have now got the virus, or had the disease and passed it on.

It's worth bearing in mind that the reported deaths are of people infected, on average, of some 14 days or more earlier and since then the virus has been spreading pretty quickly. (There are various estimates of the time between first infection and death but 14 days seems to be a guideline figure.)

If you take the figures from the WHO situation reports of 19 March and 5 March and split out China you have:

	                   China            Rest of the World		Globally	
	           Cases      	Deaths	   Cases     	Deaths        Cases	 Deaths
05/03/2020	   80565	3015	   14759	 286	      95324	   3301
19/03/2020	   81174	3242	  128665	5536	     209839	   8778

Looking at "Rest of the World" the figure of 5536 deaths for 19/03/2020, those would be the result of infections, say, on average, from 05/03 and earlier. So, once again excluding China, if my maths is correct (?) and if the confirmed cases are anything to go by, we might well have a further 43,000 deaths over the next couple of weeks that are already in the pipeline from existing infections.

[Dave2002]

Looking at "Rest of the World" the figure of 5536 deaths for 19/03/2020, those would be the result of infections, say, on average, from 05/03 and earlier. So, once again excluding China, if my maths is correct (?) and if the confirmed cases are anything to go by, we might well have a further 48,000 deaths over the next couple of weeks that are already in the pipeline.

I think we'll just have to wait and see.

There may be parts of the world - for example in Africa - where things get really bad and out of hand - I'm not discounting that. However, at the present things do seem manageable - at least in developed countries, and if the strategies are improved which I hope they are being (for example in the UK) - then it won't be quite the mega catastrophe which it appears to some people.

It is perhaps too early to tell. We might have just pulled back from the brink - or not!

[Bryn]

Devastated to learn from John Tilbury that our dear friend of over 50 years, Carole Finer/Chant died this morning from Covid-19. I first got to know her as a fellow member of Cornelius Cardew's Experimental Music Class in 1969. In recent years she presented Sound Out on Resonance FM. She will be very sorely missed by her Scratch Orchestra colleadgues and the banjo-playing community. It was only the weekend before last that I stayed at her place for Steve Beresford's 70th birthday celebrations at Cafe OTO. You will be remmembered with love, Carole.

[Padraig]

[Serial_Apologist]

Devastated to learn from John Tilbury that our dear friend of over 50 years, CarolevFiner/Chant died this morning from Covid-19. I first got to know her as a fellow member of Cornelius Cardew's Experimental Music Class in 1969. In recent years she presented Sound Out on Resonance FM. She will be very sorely missed by her Scratch Orchestra colleadgues and the banjo-playing community.It was only the weekemd before last that I stayed at her place for Steve Beresford's 70th birthday celebrations at Cafe OTO. You will be remmembered with love, Carole.

[Joseph K]

Sorry to hear that, Bryn.

[LeMartinPecheur]

No statistical analyses here!

We have been here before....

A LETTER FROM F. SCOTT FITZGERALD, QUARANTINED IN 1920 IN THE SOUTH OF FRANCE DURING THE SPANISH INFLUENZA OUTBREAK.

Dearest Rosemary,
It was a limpid dreary day, hung as in a basket from a single dull star. I thank you for your letter. Outside, I perceive what may be a collection of fallen leaves tussling against a trash can. It rings like jazz to my ears. The streets are that empty. It seems as though the bulk of the city has retreated to their quarters, rightfully so. At this time, it seems very poignant to avoid all public spaces. Even the bars, as I told Hemingway, but to that he punched me in the stomach, to which I asked if he had washed his hands. He hadn’t. He is much the denier, that one. Why, he considers the virus to be just influenza. I’m curious of his sources.

The officials have alerted us to ensure we have a month’s worth of necessities. Zella and I have stocked up on red wine, whiskey, rum, vermouth, absinthe, white wine, sherry, gin, and lord, if we need it, brandy. Please pray for us.
You should see the square, oh, it is terrible. I weep for the damned eventualities this future brings. The long afternoons rolling forward slowly on the ever-slick bottomless highball. Zella says it’s no excuse to drink, but I just can’t seem to steady my hand. In the distance, from my brooding perch, the shoreline is cloaked in a dull haze where I can discern an unremitting penance that has been heading this way for a long, long while. And yet, amongst the cracked cloudline of an evening’s cast, I focus on a single strain of light, calling me forth to believe in a better morrow.

Faithfully yours,

F. Scott Fitzgerald

#####

The booze list looks good to me. But why did he dismiss brandy, and is leaves sounding like jazz a positive or not?

[Serial_Apologist]

Indeed, as that is their raison d'etre, but social media is surely now an equal partner in that undesirable situation? The constant posting of images of queues, empty shelves etc, delivers panic straight to the jugular and can be kept constantly on the boil by those whose evolutionary state now is to have one hand permanently fiddling with a device, disseminating yet more unhelpful information. On Wednesday when I was doing the rounds trying to find some essentials (no, not toilet rolls or hand sanitisers) I came across a gaggle of folk grumbling about empty shelves, with a couple of them at the same time posting images of said shelves. If it had been in the spirit of helping friends or family("believe me there's no point you coming into -----") that might have been understandable, but it wasn't, and I don't imagine they would take kindly to the suggestion that they are part of the problem about which they complain.

I decided to do the first hour provision for over 70s at my local Sainsbury's this morning. The result? Utter chaos. 8 am opening time was postponed to 8.20, by which time two informal queues of all and every age group had formed; were it not for the good nature of some of the younger people waiting, oldies such a myself would have just had to lump it with the rest. On getting into the store one found that none of the shelves had been replenished; Sainsbury's had obviously not decided to reverse its decision of about a year ago to dispense with the night shift workforce charged with re-stocking. No member of staff was ensuring prioritisation of the elderly. Everyone regardless of age then had to queue up together. The place was immediately crowded - no chance of observing the 2 metre gap. The atmosphere was generally one of grim silence, albeit with very little in the way of aggression apart from a poseur making a big thing of assisting an elderly zimmer frame user through the chaotic checkout queues threatening to punch anyone in the face blocking her way. Where were the police one would have automatically thought to be on hand - not necessarily to supervise the access and queuing but in a situation of anticipated tension, just in case? While glad to have managed to keep my own freezer compartments reasonably topped up with essentials, the future looks pretty scary unless supply and provision are controlled for the benefit of all, rather than the hoarders still clearly ruling the roost.

Sainsbury's was limiting Paracetamol to 60 pills - it was noticeable that every trolley in my queue included at least two packs of 30. Unable to get my usual stomach antacid, I went on to one of two pharmacies which operate in close proximity. In the first we were irritably told no products were being sold (although no notice to this effect was on display): the establishment had far too many prescriptions to deal with to be selling stuff. Evidently not too many to stop her coming out to inform us of this! Just around the corner the other, smaller establishment, were selling as normal, alongside managing prescriptions. All I could do was compliment the manager, who had not realised this, and wish her good trade at the expense of her competitor!

What turned out to be most instructive was that the little Asian grocery store I then went to had most of the things that were unavailable at Sainsbury's, albeit not the precise brands I would have preferred. And there was no queue.

[MrGongGong]

Devastated to learn from John Tilbury that our dear friend of over 50 years, Carole Finer/Chant died this morning from Covid-19. I first got to know her as a fellow member of Cornelius Cardew's Experimental Music Class in 1969. In recent years she presented Sound Out on Resonance FM. She will be very sorely missed by her Scratch Orchestra colleadgues and the banjo-playing community. It was only the weekend before last that I stayed at her place for Steve Beresford's 70th birthday celebrations at Cafe OTO. You will be remmembered with love, Carole.

Just seen this on FB
Very sad news

[johnb]

I had a different experience when I went to a reasonably large Sainsbury store in the "oldies" hour yesterday.

I arrived at 8:30 and there were staff at the store entrance who were only allowing the people who looked elderly or vulnerable to enter. The store was reasonably well stocked apart from toilet rolls (though I did get some). When I left the store just before 9am there was a very long queue of non-oldies waiting to enter the store.

It looks as though some store management teams dealt with the situation better than others.

[Anastasius]

......

Sainsbury's was limiting Paracetamol to 60 pills -....

I knew about Ibuprofen but my wife informed me that there was also a question mark over the use of paracetamol as well. I don't recall the exact reason but her research is always sound.

[teamsaint]

Almost no fresh fruit and veg left in Waitrose at about 4.30. Bananas and bagged salad. ( did manage a pot of ready made guacamole though, which you would expect to have been cleared out by their customers‘). The lafy at the checkout said that it was bedlam this morning.

Aldi round the corner had much better supplies. We even got a loaf of bread, and some 69 p fruit and veg bargains.

[teamsaint]

Any thoughts on the financial package announced today ?

The wage subsidy for laid off workers looks a good investment. There simply wont be an economic recovery if businesses are decimated.

Support for the self employed doesn't look too generous, but I’m out of touch on that.
Support on in- work credits etc looks as though it is targeted reasonably well, but its a really complex system.

I’d love to see universal basic income evolve from all of this. It is an idea whose time has come.

[Joseph K]

Any thoughts on the financial package announced today ?

The wage subsidy for laid off workers looks a good investment. There simply wont be an economic recovery if businesses are decimated.

Support for the self employed doesn't look too generous, but I’m out of touch on that.
Support on in- work credits etc looks as though it is targeted reasonably well, but its a really complex system.

I’d love to see universal basic income evolve from all of this. It is an idea whose time has come.

The magic money tree has been discovered?! Surely not?